"Excluding the 'Magnificent Seven' tech platforms, which gain disproportionately from AI excitement, full-year earnings expectations suddenly took off just as the war started."
-John Authers, BBG
"High-tech buildouts and tariffs are slowly leading to a recovery of domestic manufacturing capacity which has expanded for 48 consecutive months — a new post-2000 record"
-Michael Green
"Private credit first‑order risks largely priced ... A software downturn, weak employment and private credit liquidity concerns have jointly driven valuation compression across all three to cycle lows"
-SocGen Kabra
"Over the past 15 years, [analysts have] revised their EPS estimates down by an average of 2% between January and April ... 2026 is a different story."
-JPMorgan
"The weight of AI companies in S&P 500 is close to 45%"
Goldman Sachs via Connor Bates
"Sector leadership has flipped relative to the pre-crisis pattern, pointing to a broader change in what the market is pricing."
-Noah Weisberger, BCA Research
"For the four weeks ending April 4, 2026, U.S. private employers added an average of 54,750 jobs a week. It was the fifth straight week of improvement in hiring."
-ADP
"Despite yet another ‘upside surprise’ to retail sales, inflation-adjusted retail sales have declined for the fourth straight month"
-Skanda Amarnath
"Although NASDAQ’s daily winning streak has come to an end at 13, its outlook for the next month remains positive."
-Jeff Hirsch
"There are fewer new tech unicorns than there used to be, but they are leaner."
-Bloomberg
"Already, 40 companies in the S&P 500 Index have lowered their quarterly views, the highest level since the second quarter of 2025 at the onset of tariffs"
-Bloomberg
"One of the better places for broadening surprisingly is the US Small caps. Russell 2000 up ~12% YTD and equal‑weight small caps up ~13% YTD. Broadening has been visible since the profit cycle for small firms bottomed in early’25."
-SocGen Kabra
"Regional Banks continue to surge, feeding positively on improving credit signals."
-SocGen Kabra
Relative to projected earnings growth, the Tech sector is trading at a steep discount.
via SocGen Kabra
"While Technology is clearly driving this exceptional earnings growth, it's also the one sector that's lagging its own earnings story by the most across the S&P 500."
-Duality Research
"We estimate that CTAs bought $44bn of US equities last week and $84bn globally. Over the next week, we estimate CTAs will continue to buy US and global equities in every scenario."
-GS Morgan
"Digital asset investment products saw US$1.4bn of inflows, the third consecutive positive week and the strongest since January ... Total AuM reached US$155bn, with flows representing 0.91% of AuM, the highest weekly intensity YTD"
-CoinShares
"USD is still trading at a rich premium on most valuation metrics; and since there is no obvious catalyst that would argue for meaningful appreciation in the near term, we think the path of least resistance is a weaker dollar"
-Daniel von Ahlen, TS Lombard
"One of the stock market’s swiftest rallies back to record highs in recent memory wasn’t broad based at all. Just 26% of stocks in the S&P 500 actually outperformed the index during the recent run higher."
-Josh Schafer
"As the Fed began raising rates in 2022, LMEs increased as companies faced higher borrowing costs ... That trend is now reversing. Over the past nine months, LMEs have declined."
-Apollo Slok
EM "outflows have been almost as bad as during COVID, i.e. they’ve been massive."
-Robin J. Brooks, Shadow Price Macro
"The old saying in markets “stairs up, elevator down” has been flipped on its head this year."
-Charlie Bilello
"Europe is perceived as a relative loser from the Iran war."
-Bloomberg
"Data shows that retail traders were sellers of single stocks every single day in March. As a result, March saw net selling of over $15 billion — a record for the periods we have data for."
-Phil Mackintosh, Nasdaq
"Soaring electricity bills are triggering voter fury ahead of November’s midterm elections. The build-out of artificial intelligence data centers, along with tariffs and upgrades to an aging grid, is helping propel power prices higher"
-Bloomberg
The Other 493 are expected to post stronger earnings growth than the Mag-7 ex-NVDA in Q1 (10.1% vs. 6.4%). The same applies for CY26 (15.9% vs. 13.2%).
"We've witnessed the largest 5d stretch of buying of US equities on record. Our latest positioning estimate is long $16bn (this has gotten as high as $74bn). Still wood to chop but imagine the pace is less violent."
-GS Morgan
