NOVA Does Not Control Your Destiny Virginia Redistricting Referendum and what it means

A brief piece with some of my initial thoughts on the outcome of the Virginia referendum, mainly aimed at those in my home district of the 9th.

open.substack.com/pub/poliscig...

All models now project the Virginia referendum passes. New York Times, the Hill, and others project that Yes votes narrowly prevail.

Legal challenges are no doubt already in progress.

"No" has been leading in the VA referendum since the polls closed, which is not unexpected, but its lead has reduced substantially as votes from more populated counties are being counted. No currently leads with 50.43% to 49.57%, but there are roughly 1 million votes left to count from Dem areas

Virginia voters deciding on redistricting plan that could boost Democrats' seats in Congress Virginia voters are deciding on a mid-decade redistricting plan that could help Democrats gain four more U.S. House seats.

apnews.com/article/virg...

Similar images can be found here if they aren't displaying for you.

A couple of models I'm seeing at the moment indicate the VA referendum has a chance to pass by somewhere between 2-4%. Other models are less favorable for passing. What's certain is that the results are likely to be very close.

Virginia is a solidly purple state. Should the referendum succeed and survive the onslaught of court challenges, I would expect Republican and conservative leaning voters to be motivated in the midterms and future elections. Central/Eastern districts would not be as solidly blue as the image shows.

This shows the current Virginia districts vs. the proposed redistricted version. The new version is somewhat overly optimistic and is unlikely to result in that kind of boon for Democrats, but it does certainly swing in their favor.

The Virginia redistricting referendum is in direct response to president Trump, nervous that Democratic and anti-Trump support has been increasing substantially in Texas, requested that the districts be redrawn to favor conservatives, which created 5 new solidly Republican districts.

Challenges to the referendum have been ongoing, and attorneys opposed to it were successful in getting a judge to agree that the legislative process was an issue, which it most certainly is. But the VA Supreme Court ordered that the referendum go forward. Should it pass, legal battles will continue.

Election Live Updates: Polls Close in Vote on Virginia Map With Major Midterm Stakes

Polls closed 16 minutes ago, and voting results are rolling in for the Virginia redistricting referendum. Both sides are motivated, so this will come down to turnout. Follow the coverage:

www.nytimes.com/live/2026/04...

www.270towin.com/news/

wtop.com/elections/20...

apnews.com/article/virg...

Russian drone attack on Sumy injures at least 6, damages medical facility At least six people were injured in a Russian drone attack on the city of Sumy overnight on April 21, local authorities reported.

⚡️Russian drone attack on Sumy injures at least 6, damages medical facility.

Numerous explosions were heard across the city, and damage was reported to residential buildings, cars, and a medical facility.

The hardest part of leaving the military isn't the transition paperwork. It's figuring out who you are when the institution that defined you no longer does. (Members Only)

Listen here: warontherocks.com/ep...

Federal agents detain wife of another US army member: ‘ICE is out of control’ Jose Serrano, a sergeant, said Deisy Rivera Ortega, his wife, was arrested at an immigration appointment

Authoritarianism always comes down to conflict between the military and internal security forces huh

Therefore, the U.S. is at a crossroads. Do we stand up to Russia's revanchist Neo-imperialism, or do we endorse it? Passivity, inaction, or forcing a negotiation at this point chooses the latter.

If Ukraine is to win this war, continued materiel commitments from the U.S. as well as intense political and economic pressure on Russia is critical. Unfortunately, there is little the Trump Administration has done to signal it has the strength or sense to do it. 🧵

Ultimately, the war either continues or any negotiated peace must require Russia to withdraw from occupied Ukrainian territory, which there is little reason to believe the Kremlin would agree to. 🧵

It should be clear that negotiating an end to the war at this point all but guarantees Russia expands its territory, effectively making the war effort a win for the Kremlin. It would signal to Putin and his allies that wars for territorial expansion are worthwhile. 🧵

The Trump Administration's attitude has shifted substantially in the direction of reducing materiel and political support in an effort to force Ukraine into negotiations, even as bipartisan support for Ukrainian aid increased last year. 🧵

This makes continued support from NATO and Ukraine allies crucial, and any Ukrainian "wins" worth celebrating. In a protracted conflict, having the resources to reclaim as much territory as possible is a must. That becomes more difficult as wars drag on, becoming "old news" for those unaffected. 🧵

The Russian military is also one of the largest in the world. They can continue to send in fresh troops as needed, dragging the war on and on in the hopes of dwindling Ukrainian personnel and resources such that they are forced into a deal. A deal that would likely cede some territory to Russia. 🧵

Ukrainians are fighting for their home and families. Outside of a small minority of true ultra-nationalists, Russian forces are demoralized, fighting only to survive, literally and economically, with many pressured in to signing long-term or indefinite contracts for better pay and benefits. 🧵

A good piece. Even at times where Ukraine has appeared to be at a strategic disadvantage, they have been much better positioned in reality for much of the war. Russia has only one viable strategy: extend the war as long as possible 🧵

FBI Director Kash Patel sues The Atlantic claiming false reporting about drinking, absences — Reuters FBI Director Kash Patel filed a defamation lawsuit against The Atlantic and its ​reporter Sarah Fitzpatrick following the publication of an article on Friday alleging the director had a drinking probl...

KP suing @theatlantic.com over alleged false reporting stemming from an article released last week regarding alleged drinking issues and absences from work

How Iran has been studying lessons from the war in Ukraine Military journals provide tantalising glimpses into what Tehran’s military thinks and its priorities, including drones

How Iran has been studying lessons from the war in Ukraine ft.trib.al/E8hVZ6a

Of course Trump thinks he’s the Messiah — his disciples tell him so The ‘devout’ Christians in the US president’s life are really just fawning sycophants

Of course Trump thinks he’s the Messiah — his disciples tell him so ft.trib.al/9KyanLO

The annoyance economy isn’t going anywhere We must find our own amusements in dealing with spam, robocalls and chatbots

The annoyance economy isn’t going anywhere ft.trib.al/t7ylnaR

I have historically kept my language respectful, if direct, in my criticisms of Trump's policies and the MAGA movement. But neither are deserving of respect. MAGA is eroding American institutions and democracy, destroying the economy, and wreaking havoc, destruction, and death in the Middle East.

Here are all the ways the Iran war has affected the U.S. economy so far The Iran war is starting to show up in the U.S. economy in ways both obvious and not so much.

The "winning":

1. www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/h...

2. www.emergenresearch.com/blog/us-isra...

3. economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/newsblo...

4. www.firstpost.com/world/iran-i...

5. www.cnbctv18.com/world/iran-u...

6. www.britannica.com/event/2026-I...

7. www.independent.co.uk/news/world/m...

Meanwhile, a group of the most whacked out, nut job Americans who’ve deposed Christ as their king in favor of Donald Trump love every bit of it. They see it as winning. And it’s a bonus if it ushers in their apocalyptic wet dream, “The End Times” and their non-biblical “rapture” fantasy. It’s insane

We’ve got a POTUS that needs his intelligence briefings in picture book format and a wimpy, impotent nationalist touting weird religious rhetoric in the Pentagon. And innocent people, children, U.S. soldiers, and countless more are dying as a result. Not to mention the global economy suffering (1/2)