If Orban was rational he should have thought that a supermajority was at least a possibility at the time. But idk that he was

Though it could be that Orban didn't really believe those early ballot counts, and idk if that was before or after exit polls

Hungary's Viktor Orbán concedes defeat, ending 16 years in power Hungarian voters turned out in the greatest numbers since the 1990s to turn away from Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's right-wing populist Fidesz party.

www.npr.org/2026/04/12/n...

Claude cites this article, which says "Orbán congratulated Magyar in a concession speech less than three hours after polls closed. Early ballot counts suggested a possible two-thirds majority for Magyar and Tisza"

@oneshoup.bsky.social Did Orban concede before he knew Tisza had won a supermajority? I kinda feel like he would've fought it more if he knew his entire state apparatus was going to get demolished

Labor has to pass PR at some point, right?????

The US is more polarized than developing countries and (relatedly) has less corruption. Which one of these comes first causally, and the reasons for both, are debatable

None of this is that counterintuitive when you think about things from a rational decision theory perspective. Consider the incentives of the different actors (not just personal interest in corruption/re-election but incentives in adopting policy they support) and all becomes pretty clear

They support him! Not on everything, but they do agree with most of his actions. This myth of “GOP Senators all secretly hate Trump” is just not true. You can see this by how little senators resist Trump even when they’re not running for re-election. (McConnell and Tillis voted for Emil Bove!)

Kinda crazy when you lay it out like this

Jesus fucking Christ

Yeah I was taken aback. Suicide, heart attack and car crash are the immediate guesses, any idea which seems most likely?

THE NEW ALBUM IS GOOD! HALLELUJAH

(sarcasm for those who did not get it)

Remember, this is the part of the graph we should be focusing on

My Spotify is convinced I am a lesbian. Which, I see why

This is what Wikipedia says

How confirmed is that? I see it really often stated kinda jokingly

I always dreaded this test in school. Was horrible at it and felt embarrassed

The Subway by Chappell Roan is very good

you do have to wonder, who is staffing for her lol

shouldn't be that hard to sample a poll with 200 people without a single person answering approve. gotta get lucky though

Honestly they’re perfect together. Two Obama-era creations, whose respective domains have gone far downhill since their prime but who watch unable to stop it since they are now washed

Watercolor picture of Pooh and Piglet walking in the snow. Two quotes in curly text adorn the upper-left and lower right portions of the image. "Enigmas never age, have you noticed that?" "As a matter of fact, it was clear the last time I saw you."

sorry, sorry, i'm trying to delete

How To Save A Life by The Fray

Constitutional Design Constitutional design is a subject that has always fascinated me.

My constitutional design series is complete! If you've ever wondered anything like "which is the best voting system, taking into account practical concerns?", read it! 20 posts, most 10-15 min read

Here is the intro post with links to everything else

Falling from 85% to 80% counts as faltering huh

No. But we didn’t know ex ante that SCOTUS would be so hackish in knocking down charges

Thank you media this is definitely the most important story today

Local Constitutional Design This is the latest post in my constitutional design series. Up until now I’ve discussed constitutional design primarily on the national level. In this piece, I want to discuss how much of what I’ve de...

redfishbluefish.substack.com/p/local-cons...

Oh really the UK too? I want to love you Keir Starmer but this and the foreign aid cuts are making it hard. (Really hope he succeeds at fighting back Farage though)