Thus, we trade with more confidence, conviction after a day with a wrong Rini signal, especially if the shock faded (and always ceteris paribus).
Today's Rini signal should be clear from the above.
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Because the setting will surely change and so will the Rini investor-Types' behavior.
The Rini adapts relatively fast.
Wrong Rini signals 2 or 3 consecutive days are rare to encounter.
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If the shock persists while the setting remains the same, the Rini will be wrong for a 2nd consecutive trading day and rarely for a 3rd.
NEVER for a 4th.
Why?
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In general, when a strong, clear Rini signal is wrong because of a shock in the opposite direction, the same signal will repeat the next day provided there is no change in the setting.
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Potus extended the ceasefire.
Iran responded they will not attend negotiations.
Shock number 5.
4th negative shock:
US VP postpones trip to Pakistan as Iran seems to have not responded!!!
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Traded with a profit (sold when it reached ~3%).
It has now declined along with all other US indices because of the shocks (cf. posts below).
Still positive though.
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Traded first with a profit and then with a loss.
The loss was bigger than the profit.
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Shock confirmed from Rini range prediction (closed at the average of the shocked range model) and rise in oil prices (currently at ~98).
Tomorrow deadline for ceasefire.
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The bull is wrong, of course.
Max at average Rini, then descended with 3 negative shocks:
1. Potus' statements on ceasefire.
2. Warsh hearing.
3. Iran not confirming talks in Pakistan.
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ASTS failed to launch a satellite, and thus, $ASTS incurred a decline.
Thales first-quarter sales jump nearly 10% as defence deliveries surge
www.reuters.com/business/aer...
M3 and M4 at all prices for ASTS.
$ASTS
Will lay low from Wednesday until the end of the week.
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It was a bull. Correct again.
Today is a very bullish day according to the Rini.
MUST keep quiet for the rest of the week - today is a really clear signal and had to share.
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The weekly M3 signal for spot silver was correct.
Closed the week well above 75 USD.
No M3 this week.
#silver
Negative opening indeed - Correct again.
The baseline Rini is a bull btw because there is a negative shock.
The usual strategy of taking the position in the opposite direction of the shock at the opening (here go long) is correct again.
Posted Rini predictions on multiple consecutive days.
Will comment tomorrow on the opening price as the prediction was already posted on Friday and then we keep quiet for a while to avoid web scraping and reverse engineering.
Correct Rini signal.
The usual 4/5 correct signals this week.
The index touched the Rini absolute max and closed there:
The index qualifies for a negative opening on Monday in the absence of a shock.
The Rini absolute max is at ~2%.
Positive shock from US-Iran new round of talks soon in Pakistan.
The latter is already profitable.
For the former the index must turn green.
Should reach +.14% at least according to intervals and range analysis (max is +.05% atm).
Anything is possible this period.
Let's see.
Friday 17.04.26.
The Rini baseline signal is a bull with 68% probability.
Backtesting supports a bull.
Were expecting an opening price around 0 but we think Ericsson's lower-than-expected earnings resulted in a negative price.
Went long with x2 yesterday and long x20 exactly after the opening.
Rini signal correct.
What "identical setting" means:
There are over 1.3 trillion possible settings today and we found 1 identical (going back to 2018).
Conclusion:
Although there are almost infinite settings, only a finite number realizes.
Economic behavior repeats and this is why the Rini (econometrics) works.
Thursday 16.04.26.
The Rini baseline signal is a 🐻 with 70% probability.
So far it follows exactly the pattern of an identical-setting past case:
Max at +.29% and min at -.47%.
Do not know what happens from here onwards.
Wednesday 15.04.26.
The Rini baseline signal was a weak bull.
Had suspicion it would be wrong from backtesting but we got the pattern completely wrong and incurred a loss. Used the intervals in the wrong direction.
It was a late 🐻 and, thus, the Rini signal was wrong.
It is Wednesday and the M3 is already correct:
Buy on Monday as close as you can to 75, sell yesterday or today at ~79.
The only downside with weekly signals is that you cannot load more leverage than x2, which binds more of your capital.
