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Posts by Jon Green

[bernie sanders voice] chamillionaires and chabillionaires

18 hours ago 0 0 0 0

zero-based budgeting but for website/app features

21 hours ago 3 0 1 0
The Onion plans to turn Infowars into a comedy site with satirical echoes of the fringe conspiracy theories that Mr. Jones is known for. Tim Heidecker, one of the comedians behind “Tim and Eric Awesome Show, Great Job!” on Cartoon Network’s Adult Swim, has been hired to serve as “creative director of Infowars.” He said he initially plans to parody Mr. Jones’s “whole modus operandi.”

Mr. Heidecker has been working on his impression of Mr. Jones. But eventually, when that joke gets old, Mr. Heidecker said that he hoped to turn Infowars into a destination for independent and experimental comedy.

“I just thought it would be just a beautiful joke if we could take this pretty toxic, negative, destructive force of Infowars and rebrand it as this beautiful place for our creativity,” Mr. Heidecker said in an interview. During a recent trip to Philadelphia, he traveled to the Liberty Bell to film a video in character as the new creative director of Infowars.

The Onion plans to turn Infowars into a comedy site with satirical echoes of the fringe conspiracy theories that Mr. Jones is known for. Tim Heidecker, one of the comedians behind “Tim and Eric Awesome Show, Great Job!” on Cartoon Network’s Adult Swim, has been hired to serve as “creative director of Infowars.” He said he initially plans to parody Mr. Jones’s “whole modus operandi.” Mr. Heidecker has been working on his impression of Mr. Jones. But eventually, when that joke gets old, Mr. Heidecker said that he hoped to turn Infowars into a destination for independent and experimental comedy. “I just thought it would be just a beautiful joke if we could take this pretty toxic, negative, destructive force of Infowars and rebrand it as this beautiful place for our creativity,” Mr. Heidecker said in an interview. During a recent trip to Philadelphia, he traveled to the Liberty Bell to film a video in character as the new creative director of Infowars.

Get excited.

www.nytimes.com/2026/04/20/b...

23 hours ago 6886 1041 164 104

“don’t kick it across the face of your own goal” is one of the points of emphasis for goalies in the 9-10yo rec league team my wife coaches.

2 days ago 6 0 0 0

Right, but the specific complaint here is about the education discipline. One of Piper’s recommendations is for more econ research/methods in the space. I think your point is consistent with theirs

3 days ago 0 0 1 0

but this is research in the field of economics (NBER+econ journals) concerning education, not research coming from the field of education, right?

3 days ago 2 0 1 0

seen a lot of dunks on this but there’s actually no contradiction between Rogan calling himself “politically homeless” (neither party takes his full set of idiosyncratic preferences) and being happy when the government gives him a win on a specific issue he cares a lot about (access to psychedelics)

3 days ago 5 0 2 0
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Why do the Japanese like their buns askew (2026)

3 days ago 15268 4597 172 450
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Study abstract

Study abstract

Table documenting significant diff-in-diff estimates of increased enthusiasm for Dems, post drop-out.

Table documenting significant diff-in-diff estimates of increased enthusiasm for Dems, post drop-out.

Reg. Discontinuity analysis showing increased contributions to Dems up/down ballot post dropout.

Reg. Discontinuity analysis showing increased contributions to Dems up/down ballot post dropout.

NEW at POST: In a naturally-occurring experiment, we document an electoral "vibe shift" surrounding Biden's decision to drop out of the '24 election, which translated into increased donations up/down ballot and increased faith in democratic institutions.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

4 days ago 15 12 1 0

Been working on this. As someone who has helped organizer their fare share of protests I won't pretend as if the results don't disappoint but the data is the data.

That said, I do believe that protests have a lot of impacts that are hard to measure...

4 days ago 9 3 2 0

a while ago and I forget the exact context I saw someone describe him as “terrified of his own desires” and that’s always seemed to sum it up nicely

5 days ago 2 0 0 0

Vance could stop the bleeding with something like "the Pope is entitled to his religious view but he doesn't get to decide what's in the national interest of the United States." but you can't imagine him conceding the point on the theology, can you?

5 days ago 7 2 0 1

you got an animal you need identified — perhaps of the farm or sea variety and possibly drawn in cartoon style — send them my way

6 days ago 6 0 0 0

don’t mean to brag but now that I have a ~1.5 year old I am *extremely* good at identifying animals

6 days ago 22 0 2 0

I think it's straightforwardly true (and bad) that Clavicular is "shaping today's cultural conversation." but that's because every unit of attention Clavicular attracts is a unit of attention not spent consuming or understanding "the news"

6 days ago 2 0 1 0
Preview
How bad analytics built a Tottenham team that might get relegated Tottenham are really bad and looking at the way this team has been constructed, one thing clearly stands out: This team is really bad at passing the ball, and that may explain their present malaise.

I wrote about how Spurs used new some numbers terribly and ended up with a super-expensive team of players who can't pass: www.espn.com/soccer/story...

1 week ago 154 35 15 46
An interactive OJS playground demonstrating a linear congruential generator (LCG) using the formula X_n = (aX_{n-1} + c) mod m. Controls on the left set modulus (m=8), multiplier (a=5), increment (c=3), seed (X_0=1), and numbers to generate (12). A table on the right shows the resulting sequence of X values, intermediate calculations, mod m results, and normalized values X_n/m, with the final "random" numbers highlighted in yellow.

An interactive OJS playground demonstrating a linear congruential generator (LCG) using the formula X_n = (aX_{n-1} + c) mod m. Controls on the left set modulus (m=8), multiplier (a=5), increment (c=3), seed (X_0=1), and numbers to generate (12). A table on the right shows the resulting sequence of X values, intermediate calculations, mod m results, and normalized values X_n/m, with the final "random" numbers highlighted in yellow.

Excerpt from the blog post with R code that tests all seeds from 1 to 10,000 to find which ones produce 10 heads in a row when simulating coin flips. The possible_seeds data frame is filtered to show 10 seeds (614, 1667, 3212, 4166, 4580, 5527, 5824, 7365, 7468, 8975) that meet this criterion. The post notes that seed 614 actually produces 13 heads in a row, confirmed with a withr::with_seed(614, ...) call below.

Excerpt from the blog post with R code that tests all seeds from 1 to 10,000 to find which ones produce 10 heads in a row when simulating coin flips. The possible_seeds data frame is filtered to show 10 seeds (614, 1667, 3212, 4166, 4580, 5527, 5824, 7365, 7468, 8975) that meet this criterion. The post notes that seed 614 actually produces 13 heads in a row, confirmed with a withr::with_seed(614, ...) call below.

R console output demonstrating that set.seed(1234) produces reproducible results. The first block calls runif(5) and returns five values: 0.1137, 0.6223, 0.6093, 0.6234, 0.8609. The second block uses the same seed but splits the draw into runif(2) then runif(3), returning the same five values in the same order, showing that the sequence is preserved regardless of how many numbers are drawn at a time.

R console output demonstrating that set.seed(1234) produces reproducible results. The first block calls runif(5) and returns five values: 0.1137, 0.6223, 0.6093, 0.6234, 0.8609. The second block uses the same seed but splits the draw into runif(2) then runif(3), returning the same five values in the same order, showing that the sequence is preserved regardless of how many numbers are drawn at a time.

Table of contents for the post:

Introduction
Seeds and reproducible randomness
My (somewhat incorrect) mental model of how seeds work
Making “random” numbers with an equation
    Live interactive playground
    Cycles and fancier algorithms
Why does it matter if “random” numbers aren’t actually random?
    You’re limiting yourself to narrow, known universes
    You can seed hack and get any values you want
    Real world bad things can happen because of pseudorandom numbers
Can computers even create true randomness?
    Moving a mouse around
    Lava lamps
    Atmospheric noise
How I use true randomness in my own work
“…as an ook cometh of a litel spyr…”

Table of contents for the post: Introduction Seeds and reproducible randomness My (somewhat incorrect) mental model of how seeds work Making “random” numbers with an equation Live interactive playground Cycles and fancier algorithms Why does it matter if “random” numbers aren’t actually random? You’re limiting yourself to narrow, known universes You can seed hack and get any values you want Real world bad things can happen because of pseudorandom numbers Can computers even create true randomness? Moving a mouse around Lava lamps Atmospheric noise How I use true randomness in my own work “…as an ook cometh of a litel spyr…”

I've been using random seeds for years but I have no idea how they work. Seeds somehow(?) make the same random numbers?

So I figured it out! New post includes an interactive PRNG generator, lava lamps, lottery fraud, @random.org, Chaucer, and Minecraft #rstats

www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2026/04...

1 week ago 99 23 6 3
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Converse'd

1 week ago 3 1 1 0

idk if I'd call it a "punch" but the pope has absolutely been critical of Trump/the US government recently?

1 week ago 1 0 0 0

you have more control over this in Claude Code than with the chat interface, but you do have to be intentional about setting up adversarial sub-agents/check-in points

1 week ago 0 0 1 0

pretty incredible how Dan Bongino’s title is technically “former deputy fbi director” instead of “podcaster”

1 week ago 3 0 0 0

people who are trying to use bitterness to smuggle in a little extra ABV evenly split between both camps

1 week ago 0 0 0 0

I think people don't understand how an open secret works - there are tons of open secrets in Washington, but there's a huge difference between hearing a rumor and then being able to report a story.

1 week ago 353 32 15 12

Two kinds of software people commenting on politics: thoughtful ones who have genuine experience managing systems in which humans are the main technological components and “i would simply put the legislature on blockchain”

1 week ago 204 17 8 2
Political elites’ partisan beliefs about climate change Political elites’ partisan beliefs about climate change, Furnas, Alexander C, LaPira, Timothy M, Benegal, Salil D

Ever wonder if political elites’ beliefs about climate change are partisan? If so have I got a new article for you!

Elites believe climate science more than voters, but there’s still a partisan divide.

w/ @salilb.bsky.social & @alexanderfurnas.com

iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

1 week ago 15 10 0 0

#polisky share far and wide: @apsa.bsky.social Statement on the Proposed Elimination of the Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences Directorate at the National Science Foundation

apsanet.org/wp-content/u...

1 week ago 66 79 2 6

"it should be easier for people to have as many kids as they want, when they want them" seems like a layup take and yet hardly anyone on the pro-natalist side of this discourse seems capable of being Normal about it

1 week ago 6 0 0 0
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ime this can lead straussians to approach their texts with an almost religious quality. machiavelli can’t fail he can only be failed

1 week ago 6 0 0 1
Video

fan footage of Dillon Brooks talking insane trash to KD, immediately getting his ankles broken

1 week ago 3230 378 127 110

Okay this isn’t really happening anymore so I can tell you how l had “internal ICE sources”: the 3000 very stir-crazy ICE agents were all going wild on Minneapolis Tinder. Local girls would match with them and string them along for intel. They loved to brag about what they were doing all day

1 week ago 5565 983 91 322