Exclusive | Saudi Arabia Sees a Spike to $180 Oil if Energy Shock Persists Past April Prices at such a level could lead the kingdom to be vilified and trigger a recession or consumer changes that crush demand.

Happy to have been quoted in this story by @wsj.com
www.wsj.com/finance/comm...

Saudi-Pakistani Defense Pact Highlights Shifts in Alignments - Arab Gulf States Institute Saudi Arabia’s strategic defense agreement with Pakistan is part of a wider formation of alignments within the broader Muslim world meant to counter Israel’s expanding power and ambitions in the regio...

Saudi-Pakistani Defense Pact Highlights Shifts in Alignments @umerkarim.bsky.social agsi.org/analysis/sau...

Will be interesting to watch as there’s a broader opposition movement now specially compromising young people even some from religious backgrounds but all worried about economic downturn though politically it seems for now erdogan has managed to drain the momentum of this movement

L'Arabie saoudite menacée par l’hégémonie israélienne au Proche-Orient Malgré d’indéniables succès stratégiques, l’Arabie saoudite est désormais confrontée à une remise en cause de sa doctrine sécuritaire en raison de (…)

Bon petit résumé macro-micro historique et géostratégique.
Encore bravo et merci pour vos articles @orientxxi.bsky.social

et spécialement, aujourd'hui, @umerkarim.bsky.social

abonnez-vous

L'Arabie saoudite menacée par l’hégémonie israélienne au Proche-Orient orientxxi.info/magazine/l-a...

L'Arabie saoudite menacée par l’hégémonie israélienne au Proche-Orient Malgré d’indéniables succès stratégiques, l’Arabie saoudite est désormais confrontée à une remise en cause de sa doctrine sécuritaire en raison de (…)

Malgré d’indéniables succès stratégiques, l’ #Arabiesaoudite est désormais confrontée à une remise en cause de sa doctrine sécuritaire en raison de l’émergence d’ #Israël comme seule puissance dominante de la région.
Par Umer Karim

But that happened under the watch of Pakistan military. A Q Khan was just a functionary

Shows the section of society opposing Erdogan remains the same one and some of the societal divides that had continued to polarize Turkish politics endure.

Probably the last struggle between the Kemalists and Erdoganists !

Very interesting stuff. Its fascinating to see the views and personalities of the people who have become face of Emirati diplomacy and executioners of its transforming statecraft

Marco Rubio claims US strikes are to stop Houthi attacks on global shipping.

FYI: there have been no Houthi attacks on commercial vessels since last November and none targeting US Navy in the Red Sea since December. Attacks had stopped because of Gaza ceasefire. US is now making sure they restart.

Some Damascenes I’ve spoken to say they are frustrated by the focus on minorities rather than a focus on general improvement of services, security & conditions (and all who told me this were themselves minorities).

Syria Needs a Strong Society, Not a Strongman The Islamism vs. secularism debate misses the point — the real struggle for the post-Assad state is democracy vs. authoritarianism

Important read from
@qunfuz.bsky.social

newlinesmag.com/argument/syr...

Saudi Arabia urges Syria sanctions relief at talks with regional, EU diplomats Saudi Arabia on Sunday called for the lifting of sanctions on Syria after meetings with top diplomats from the Middle East and Europe that focused on the war-ravaged country's future.

This Afp story includes some of my thoughts as Saudi Arabia continues its positive but cautious approach towards the new rulers in Syria
rfi.my/BJ

Yet near total silence and even acceptance of the very traditional Turkey-styled military backed and controlled political order in Pakistan and the crushing of a political movement which in many ways is aligned with that of Erdogan. Not to forget the total reversal in dealings with Arab gulf states

Cafes Can’t Play Music, but the Water Taps Work: Life Under Syria’s Rebels The Islamists who now lead Syria have ruled the city of Idlib for years. Residents say they imposed some strict laws, but also heeded some complaints and improved public services.

Cafes Can’t Play Music, but the Water Taps Work: Life Under Syria’s Rebels www.nytimes.com/2024/12/17/w...

Indeed his understanding of most middle eastern files was quite insightful and most people within the industry said the same but on Syria don’t know what happened.

He was good on egypt but took a complete you turn on syria and became awful by every passing day.

Celebrating the fall of the Assad regime in Damascus.
For many who lived under regime control this may have been their first demo, the first time to chant revolutionary songs out loud, the first time not to fear being shot.

🚨 New article alert in @democratization.bsky.social: Why do authoritarian regimes maintain access to open U.S.-owned social media platforms like Twitter - despite their subversive potential - and how do pro-government supporters use them?

👇 OA link: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Menasky

Front pages of Saudi newspapers today leading with the fall of the Assad regime in Syria.

because the ruling order is backed by washington who kicked out Putin's friend so nobody cares

Jordanian police cordon off area near Israeli embassy after gunshots heard, witnesses say Jordanian police cordoned off an area in the vicinity of the Israeli embassy in the capital Amman after gunshots were heard, witnesses said on Sunday.

Gunman shot dead, 3 police injured in shooting near Israeli embassy in Jordan

Jordan's communications minister, Mohamed Momani, described the shooting as a terrorist attack that targeted public security forces in the country.

www.reuters.com/world/middle...

Israel says rabbi who went missing in the UAE was killed Israel says the body of of an Israeli-Moldovan rabbi who went missing in the United Arab Emirates has been found, citing Emirati authorities.

Israel says rabbi who went missing in the UAE was killed

Also Saudi Arabia and its rulers would have got nothing in terms of political capital or legitimacy other than some token goodwill from western states from this normalisation. Neither Israel would have come to defend saudis against houthis and not to mention huge backlash across islamic world

Also its interesting the Saudi stance on Israel and its actions in Gaza and against Iran has been one which has gradually evolved in time. Saudi reaction to Israel-Iran confrontation in april was different to the recent one probably anticipating Netanyahu’s non-interest in a normalisation.

With this argument one has to ask against whom are the saudis buying so much of the weapons and seeking a security umbrella. Furthermore normalisation would have reignited the Saudis houthi problem. With active security vulnerabilities it’s difficult to argue for this Saudi regional role.

The real questions that must be keeping Riyadh's policy makers awake at night, are, how they will navigate Trump's anti China requirements from US partners, without infuriating Beijing ? What price Riyadh can ask DC for an alignement without antagonizing Trump too much ?

Good to see paywall gone for articles on Saudi Arabia on some leading platforms. I wish this policy continues and isn’t an exception for only specific pieces

The resistance axis and regional order in the Middle East: nomos, space, and normative alternatives A decade on from the Arab Uprisings, politics across the Middle East remains contested, both within and between states. As a mix of strategic alliance, security community, and ideational network, t...

Latest article with Edward Wastnidge is now allocated to an issue and available open access: The resistance axis and regional order in the Middle East: nomos, space, and normative alternatives. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Written before October 7 and the devastating events of the past year.

It’s Canada with full heating 😂😂