I look forward to joining the Millenial Book Club you have informally started.

Oh cool it's Infrastructure Week again...

For those looking a few hours later: the phrasing has been changed in the article. It now reads:

"Mr. Trump’s angry **reaction** to the soft-spoken Leo..."

Never underestimate how much the market loves smoking Hopeium.

Someone Has to Be Happy. Why Not Lauren Sánchez Bezos?

I can think of some reasons.

The markets continue to be an idiot

Smash that buy button. Confuse your enemies. Arouse your friends.

This is a good take. Endorse.

Sure seems like it's TACO Tuesday... on a Wednesday.

This fella is good at politics.

Thank you so so much for having me!

The repairs from the fire are relatively minor. Servicemember friend says its operational status is still green.

Of course, the deployment is quite long and it would be wise to recall it, but they sent beds that were intended for the USS Kennedy and they could turn it pretty quickly.

I agree with you in substance but slightly disagree on timing. Earliest Thursday or Friday; my guess midnight Friday.

The key: leadership wants the USS Tripoli (and its battle group) in place; it's still a few days out. And the USS Gerald Ford needs resupply in Crete. Also will take a few days.

Fam, who else loves TACOs?

Stay classy, San Diego.

We're so back.

Hey, internet. Anyone else notice that GPT 5.4 loves specific words to an almost psychotic degree? "Gremlin" is like, the word of the day. It's bizarre.

If you've seen anything like this, add the word below.

@nytimes.com : Hegseth Says Tuesday Will Be ‘Most Intense’ for U.S. Strikes on Iran

@nytimes.com : Trump Walks Back Idea That War Is Near End: U.S. Gains ‘Not Enough’

Guys what are we doing here?

@wsj.com : Trump Says Iran War Is ‘Very Complete, Pretty Much’

I should note that the awesome authors of the current NBER paper discuss the older work at length and the contrasts -- just wanted to throw some love to the "classics"

Weather To Go To College Does current utility bias predictions of future utility for high stakes decisions? Here I provide field evidence consistent with such Projection Bias in one of life's most thought-about decisions: co...

Someone else did too... with a fantastic title. A classic projection bias paper from @urisohn.bsky.social

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1...

I know there is a lot going on in the world but I just want to focus our collective rage and earnestly say fuck you to spring forward.

Can't wait to see who joins the cast!

Fifteen percent*. You want global economic stability and certainty? It’s fifteen percent.*

*Plus or minus five percent. Ish. We think.

I am genuinely surprised by the delta between adoption / applications. The hype machine nonsense of "you can replace all COBOL engineers now" (see, e.g., IBM stock yesterday) seems... misplaced. Just make one thing unambiguously better, please, AI overlords!

I love this take. 🔥

The averages could be straight out of a paper on non-belief in the law of large numbers. (See e.g. Benjamin, Rabin, Raymond JEEA)

Great question; I appreciate how you've translated this into something concrete rather than, say, p(doom).

2%; 85%, 10%, 2%, something smaller than 1% but I am lazy