⚠️Unfortunately, this week's seminar has been canceled.⚠️

Kertzer speaks in front of an audience.

An audience member asks a question while others look on.

Two men seated at a table.

The audience applauds.

Thank you, Joshua Kertzer, for your lively discussion “Advisers in Foreign Policy” during this week’s Wednesday Seminar.
There are only two seminars left in the semester!
@jkertzer.bsky.social

In the penultimate Wednesday Seminar of the semester, Caleb Pomeroy will discuss how rising power increases leaders' expectations of security.

🗓️4/22 at noon ET
📍MIT community can join in person at E40-496
📡Bookmark the livestream
https://youtube.com/live/jrqCTSDsVTQ?feature=share

🥗Spend your lunchtime with us!
In tomorrow’s Wednesday Seminar, @jkertzer.bsky.social explores the role of advisers in foreign policy, highlighting the systematically different counsel offered by hawkish and dovish advisers.

Livestreaming:
https://bit.ly/4dXZaAH
*This talk will not be recorded.

SSP Senior Research Associate Jim Walsh thinks that the US may be ready to walk away from the war, despite not having met its strategic goals.
🎧Listen to the full interview with @wbur.org www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2026/04/08/tr...

What if Ukraine had nuclear weapons? | Mariana Budjeryn What did the 1994 Budapest Memorandum teach Ukraine? “All defense-related agreements must be set out in detail,” says Mariana Budjeryn, a political scientist at MIT's Center for Nuclear Security Policy. Budjeryn believes that current negotiations with...

Center for Nuclear Security Policy Senior Researcher @mbudjeryn.bsky.social discusses the impasse in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in this @tvpworld.bsky.social interview.

Full interview: https://youtu.be/UdLTd_dwjJU?si=aY8Y-KfTEzUTQ6XD

In our upcoming Wednesday Seminar, @jkertzer.bsky.social explores the role of advisers in foreign policy, highlighting the systematically different counsel offered by hawkish and dovish advisers.

📡Bookmark the livestream*
https://bit.ly/4dXZaAH
*This talk will be livestreamed but not recorded.

Myth of the AI Oracle Even the most capable AI will face limits on its ability to make predictions and substitute for strategic decision-making.

“AI is an extraordinary tool—but it’s not a genie to which humans can delegate judgment,” writes Joel Brenner, SSP Senior Research Fellow.

Read Brenner’s full commentary, “Myth of the AI Oracle” via @lawfaremedia.org
www.lawfaremedia.org/article/myth-of-the-ai-o...

Rachel at the lectern in front of an audience.

An audience member asks a question while others look on.

Two women seated at a table.

Two women shaking hands in front of a banner.

Thank you, Rachel Myrick, for your informative discussion “Polarization and International Politics” at last week’s Wednesday Seminar. And special thanks to Caitlin Talmadge for guest hosting. Only three more seminars remaining for the semester!

@rachelmyrick.bsky.social
@proftalmadge.bsky.social

Corporations in the Crosshairs: Commercial Actors, Conflict Escalation, and Crisis Simulation - Erik Lin-Greenberg, Benjamin Norwood Harris, Daniel Cebul, 2026 Purpose Our article examines the growing role of commercial actors as both participants in and targets of military operations to explore whether and how increas...

For an example of Cebul’s work, read his contribution to this article on wargaming, “Corporations in the Crosshairs: Commercial Actors, Conflict Escalation, and Crisis Simulation”: journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

Congratulations to SSP PhD student Daniel Cebul on receiving the Smith Richardson Foundation’s World Politics and Statecraft Fellowship!

Inheriting the Bomb | Mieroszewski Centre “ Inheriting the Bomb” examines Ukraine’s nuclear disarmament and its long-term consequences for European security after 1991.

...of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“Nuklearna sukcesja” is available here: mieroszewski.pl/en/shop/inhe...
And the original English version, “Inheriting the Bomb”, is available here: www.press.jhu.edu/books/title/...

Mariana Budjeryn’s 2022 book, “Inheriting the Bomb: The Collapse of the USSR and the Nuclear Disarmament of Ukraine”, is now available in a Polish translation. @mbudjeryn.bsky.social, a senior researcher at the MIT’s Center for Nuclear Security Policy, examines the nuclear legacy...

What are the risks of turning energy sites into battlefields? Oil and gas facilities in the Gulf have been attacked since early in the war on Iran.

SSP Senior Research Associate Jim Walsh says this is the biggest use of oil as a weapon, even more so than previous wars in the Middle East. Watch the full discussion via @aljazeera.com:
www.aljazeera.com/video/inside...

India and a Changing Global Order: Foreign Policy in the Trump 2.0 Era Trump 2.0 has unsettled India’s external environment—but has not overturned its foreign policy strategy, which continues to rely on diversification, hedging, and calibrated partnerships across a fract...

“New Delhi still counts the United States as its most important—if less reliable—partner, motivating it to play the best hand it is dealt while placing smaller bets elsewhere,” writes SSP Affiliate Sameer Lalwani for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Read more:
https://bit.ly/4shioEJ

Congratulations to SSP Affiliate Francis Gavin for receiving the 2026 Lionel Gelber Prize for his book “Thinking Historically: A Guide to Statecraft and Strategy”!

The war with Iran, 1 month in The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon is considering sending up to 10,000 additional troops to the Middle East.

One month into the war with Iran, both sides are losing, says Jim Walsh, SSP Senior Research Associate, speaking to @wbur.org Here & Now’s Indira Lakshmanan.
🎧Listen to the full segment:
www.wbur.org/hereandnow/2026/03/27/ir...

🥪Spend your lunchtime with us!
In tomorrow’s Wednesday Seminar, Rachel Myrick will discuss her research, arguing that polarization reshapes the nature of constraints on democratic leaders.
Livestream*:
https://bit.ly/4tbWL9A
*This livestream will not be recorded.
@rachelmyrick.bsky.social

In their latest paper published by American Political Science Review, Stanton Fellow Joshua Byun and co-author Hyunku Kwon asks, “How can governments in racially divided societies protect vulnerable populations from political violence after large-scale internal conflict?”

https://bit.ly/4bIcebS

Polarization and International Politics YouTube video by MIT Security Studies Program

🗓️4/1 at noon ET
📍MIT community can join in person at E40-496
📡Bookmark the livestream*
youtube.com/live/30D-bQ7...
*This discussion will be livestreamed but not recorded.

n our upcoming Wednesday Seminar, @rachelmyrick.bsky.social will discuss her research, arguing that polarization reshapes the nature of constraints on democratic leaders, which in turn erodes the advantages democracies have in foreign affairs. Learn more: ssp.mit.edu/events/2026/...

Analysts say potential US operation to seize Iran's Kharg Island would be risky The Pentagon is considering the seizure of Iran's Kharg Island. It's a risky operation, and Iran could retaliate by targeting the biggest energy facilities in the Gulf, sending prices soaring.

Finally, for @npr.org, @proftalmadge.bsky.social says that she would never underestimate the US military’s ability to plan. But seizing and holding Kharg Island, less than 20 miles from Iran’s heavily defended coastline, would be militarily challenging.
Listen now: www.npr.org/2026/03/26/n...

Why It’s So Hard to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz (Gift Article) There may be no country better situated geographically than Iran when it comes to bringing an oil-dependent world to its knees.

Also this week @proftalmadge.bsky.social tells @nytimes.com, “I think as long as there is a residual Iranian threat to the strait, you will see an effect on traffic. For things to truly return to normal, it will require a diplomatic and political solution.”
Read more: www.nytimes.com/interactive/...

Why Iran's disruption of the Strait of Hormuz matters | Brookings Samantha Gross, Caitlin Talmadge, and Melanie Sisson discuss how the Iran war is affecting commercial operations in the Strait of Hormuz.

@proftalmadge.bsky.social says that Iran is probably already thinking about deterring the next war, "part of the way you deter the next round is to teach more powerful adversaries that they don’t control when the dance stops, once the music starts.”
@brookings.edu www.brookings.edu/articles/why...

Thank you, Alexandra Bell, president and CEO of @thebulletin.org, for your lively discussion on “The Third Nuclear Age” at last week’s Wednesday Seminar.

📼ICYMI catch up with the conversation with the recorded stream:
https://youtube.com/live/ohOSv5unJiE?feature=share

@mbudjeryn.bsky.social, CNSP Senior Researcher, joins a panel of experts to discuss Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant’s status and what support Ukraine needs to maintain and secure its nuclear sites.

Watch the Helsinki Commission briefing: https://bit.ly/4bGHmag

Taiwan concerned by depletion of US missile stocks during Iran war Some weapons used in Gulf would be crucial in early phases of any conflict with China

“When you calculate what munitions to use, there is a strong tendency to optimise on reducing risk to your own forces in the present context,” says Eric Heginbotham, Wargaming Lab Co-director.
via @financialtimes.com:
https://bit.ly/4dDZ2G3

"Choosing to fight can lead to all the normal costs of war—death, destruction, and a shift in resources from butter to guns—but not bring the expected benefits in terms of enhanced reputation for resolve,” writes @joshschwartz.bsky.social, SSP visiting scholar.

Read more: https://bit.ly/3NkrsdJ

The Debate - Trump's grounds for concern: Will the US risk lives to take Iran's uranium? The Middle East War is now in its 20th day, with a perceived split in US and Israeli strategy emerging. Donald Trump says Israel bombed Iran's gas field "without his knowledge". Then Trump, perhaps playing...

Mariana Budjeryn, Center for Nuclear Security Policy Research Associate, joins an international panel on @france24.com to discuss the next possible phase of the war in Iran.
Full debate: https://bit.ly/47g9gIN
@mbudjeryn.bsky.social

What U.S. Marines Can Do to Help Reopen the Strait of Hormuz The Marine Corps unit expected to arrive in the Middle East next week could help seize one or more of the strategic islands off Iran’s southern coast to counter Iranian attacks on shipping.

@nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2026/03/18/u...
@wsj.com www.wsj.com/world/iran-w...