On interest rates, war, and jobs:
"The Fed is walking a tight rope. A rate cut while the war is still underway is totally possible if the labor market and/or financial conditions deteriorate sharply from here on." www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"But one can also turn this around and say that as a result of anti-immigrant policies we’ve stopped adding workers, but we have also stopped gaining jobs" - @pkrugman.bsky.social
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/job-growth...
Is the US housing market in a recession?
"Ultimately, improving affordability is what will pull us out of this slump — which I don't expect until we see improvements to the job market or rates," said @hatethegamebook.com
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Geopolitical Shockwaves: Capital Markets in the Wake of the Iran Conflict
Webinar tomorrow!
Register here:
pages.marketintelligence.spglobal.com/Geopolitical...
Rate cuts turn to rate hikes and then back to cuts.
A look at the impact the war in Iran is having on volatility in bonds:
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"The quits rate is a great real-time indicator of how workers feel about the labor market," said Laura Ullrich. "When it is high it shows that workers are confident enough to voluntarily leave, sometimes without something else lined up. That confidence has waned"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
So far, gasoline prices have risen close to 30% since the start of the Iran attacks and inflation expectations are climbing. In the FOMC's new quarterly summary of economic projections, the median view among Fed officials is for the annual growth of headline personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and core PCE, which strips out volatile energy and food prices, to both rise to 2.7% by the end of 2026. In its previous projections released in December, FOMC members saw annual growth of PCE at 2.4% and core PCE at 2.5%. The Fed's next rate cut could happen while the war continues, but that looks unlikely given the recent acceleration in both PCE inflation and the producer price index, which jumped an unexpected 70 basis points from January to February, and rapidly rising energy prices, said George Pearkes, a macro strategist at Bespoke Investment Group. "It's hard to imagine a cut unless the FOMC is convinced we are tilting into recession," Pearkes said. More likely, the Fed could restart rate cuts if there is a "material worsening" of the domestic labor market, said Pearkes.
Quoted by @brianscheid.bsky.social in this write-up on the outlook for the Fed from here
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"The longer this disruption continues, the more likely it is that the Fed will not cut rates at all this year" www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Institutions boost stock sales as index investors bought ahead of Iran war www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
The 10 biggest companies in the S&P 500 make up almost 40% of the index, and if Anthropic, OpenAI and SpaceX are added later this year, the concentration could approach 50%: Apollo's Torsten Slok
Older Americans making up larger part of US workforce as population ages
"Even if a smaller fraction of the 100-plus million Americans over 55 choose to work, their sheer numbers dominate the labor pool," said Laura Ullrich w/ Indeed
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"The longer energy costs stay elevated, the greater the risk it becomes demand destructive, which dampens core inflation pressures over the medium to longer term"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"I think the strong performance of the dollar over the past week has helped settle the argument about whether it is a safe haven currency still," said Jane Foley w/ Rabobank www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
The number of permanent job losers has risen about 16% from a year earlier and is now at its highest level since Oct '21, when the labor market was still struggling under the global pandemic
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
i estimate the chance of the national average reaching $4/gal in the next month is now 80%
Mortgage rates fell below 6%... then the US went to war
"Just as it appeared the spring selling season was going to get some much-needed help from lower rates, the conflict in Iran broke out, taking oil prices higher and with it, higher rates on the 10-year"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
The war in the Middle East is driving up inflation expectations and is expected to push the pace of rising prices further away from the Fed's policy target, potentially delaying plans to cut interest rates further
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Equal weight continues to beat the S&P 500 as mega cap leadership fades. Is dispersion a positive for US equities?
"The trades, particularly in large-cap tech, became very crowded and disproportionately dictated market direction"
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
#Mag7 $NVDA $MSFT $AAPL $GOOGL $META
Institutions slow selling as funds curb buying after frenzied end of 2025 www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"Even if GDP is moderating, as long as growth remains positive and the labor market is relatively firm, the Fed does not feel pressured to ease. In that sense, the data don't eliminate cuts from the outlook, but they do justify pushing them further out." www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Restaurant inflation stays hot, forcing shift in American dining
"The math is difficult. Restaurant operators face an enormous number of costs that are going up ... and at the same time, they face a consumer that is very stressed."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Trump advisor and Fed chair also-ran Hassett wants researchers behind NY Fed paper that reached a conclusion on tariffs that runs against the political views of the administration "disciplined" for their work. Here's the paper: www.reuters.com/world/us/ny-...
US dollar's global safe-haven standing is slipping
"Less political surprises and uncertainty would be helpful" says Rabobank's Jane Foley
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
"The job market has slowed and unemployment has increased modestly, but it hasn't deteriorated enough to discourage workers into giving up their job search entirely" says @danielzhao.bsky.social
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
'Prime-age' Americans in workforce rise to 25-year high as jobs picture darkens
"I think we are still feeling the echoes of the rapid labor market recovery post-2020, which drew people into the labor market" said @prestonmui.bsky.social www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
How much will the US labor market need to weaken for the Fed to cut rates again?
5% unemployment?
Mass layoffs?
"Any indications that employers are increasingly leaning into trimming their payrolls would be a red flag that would be tough for the Fed to ignore."
www.spglobal.com/market-intel...
Good point. I think this season has clearly shown they need to do something, I just don’t think this is the move (I was really wrong about Rudy so I’d love to admit I’m wrong here too)
Sure, but is the possibility of 5 good seasons from a superstar worth pretty much gutting what the wolves have built over the past 5 seasons? Seems like the risk is way too high
Going all in on Giannis, selling the core of the franchise for a slim chance at a championship this season, is such a panic move that will certainly not work and that’s why it’ll probably happen
