Feeling persists because (a) prices haven't "corrected" back to what people "remember" from 2019, (b) it takes a while to adjust to the new baseline, and (3) there's a lot of other negative shit going on, all of which *seems* like it should be tanking the economy even though it hasn't (yet).

I don't buy "trauma" as explanatory, either, but what COVID did do was create a year+ long break in what people perceive as an economic continuum. When the post-lockdown economy didn't spring back to (recollections of) 2019, prices and all, people felt it as an outsized shift for the worse. That

Instead you get 2021, which had ask of the "standard" inflation of 2020 PLUS the effects of supply chain shock, stimulus, etc. So it seems like an even bigger jump than it is, especially if your memory of 2019 is rose-colored, which of course it is. That magnifies the perceived gap even more.

Not just that, but I think a lot of people saw 2020 as outside of time, so to speak. A blip, not part of the continuum of price increases over the year. To them, it went 2018-2019-(BLANK)-2021. They saw the bargain as "make it through lockdown and we'll return to 2019," which is not how it works.

a sudden price increase across the board. Plus their memory of prices in the "real life" economy of 2019 is necessarily fuzzy - people aren't great at remembering prices week to week, now we're talking about an entire year or more.

In part, but their answers are still based on how they prescribe the economic situation: "2019 prices" followed by "a really weird year for consumers" followed by "2021 prices." I think most people saw 2020 as a blip, not part of "the economy and where it's going." So to them, it just felt like

Caused, in large part, by COVID. When reality didn't match that expectation, sentiment cratered and hasn't come back

COVID. That's the answer, COVID.

People lived in the expectation that if they made it through the lockdown, things would go back to the way they were before - or just what they *remembered* them being before. Things were different, though, partly due to bad memory and partly due to actual inflation

In many regards, yes.

But American maintenance of freedom of navigation around the world has been a massive good for the entire world. It has averted conflicts and allowed a massive increase of prosperity, not just for the wealthy but for everyone.

Have been terrible. But when you bluff all the time, people start to think you're always bluffing. This increases the risk of miscalculations on both sides. And that is scary.

that this would represent an abject, humiliating defeat for Trump, and nobody is going to be shy about saying so. He won't handle that well and his tantrum will be unpredictable.

On top of all this... Look, I'm glad this was TACO Tuesday. Whatever was on the table for the strikes tonight would

If these are indeed the 10 points, it's dead on arrival no matter what Trump supposedly agrees to. They involve the Israelis and Saudis agreeing, too, when they have no real incentive to do so - indeed, continuing the war is pretty much all to their benefit. That's before we even deal with the fact

Greg explains it more thoroughly, but: as the law stands now, Trump can't be subjected to criminal trial, now or in the future. SCOTUS saw to that. He can pardon those who carry out the orders, putting them beyond reach, too.

There's not a legal mechanism for punishment. Only removal. Not enough.

Dead. Murdered by the other side.

I've known Greg a long time. He is a lawyer, former Republican, and committed to the rule of law. And he is right here.

Politico runs a headline saying "Trump won't do war crimes" right next to much larger headline dating, "Trump: 'I will do a genocide tonight'"

I don't think you can have these headlines right next to each other.

Hague don't hang.

If it comes from the Persian region of southern Asia it's a hostage crisis, otherwise it's just a sparkling POW situation.

Scratch at spite hard enough, there's hope underneath. What is spite except the unspoken expectation that you will be one who wears the bastards down, instead of the other way around?

Sorry today sucks. But honestly? Probably sucks for them, too.

Every day you give a shit is an intolerable affront to the enemy. Give a shit out of pure spite.

I feel much the same. There may be utility in getting people used to coming out for "the next step," camping out in front of the White House or marching on the Capitol or whatever. But are we just getting habituated to making cute signs and selfies? Hard to say. But for now, I'm out protesting.

Congratulations to Paul Ehrlich for finally doing something about the "overpopulation" problem he spent his life ranting about, specifically by dying.

Rarely has a scientist been so thoroughly discredited and yet somehow remained influential.

Inputs at the drop off a hat, though, so cow shit only gets you so far.

No, I don't think the fertilizer situation is apocalyptic. Yes, I agree the farm lobby would say anything to get more taxpayer dollars thrown their away. But there really is a problem here.

The market for fertilizer, like most things, is global. An overall shortfall will raise prices everywhere. Even if the impact is relatively small in the US, that will be enough to put some farms under, increase consolidation, and raise prices. Yeah, manure exists. Industrial agriculture can't switch

God knows the farm lobby lives a handout, but the media freakout isn't "agriculture conspiracy," it's "Fear makes people watch the news." Same logic that fueled the constant vibecession/inflation pieces under Biden: the menace of skyrocketing grocery prices drives viewership, clicks, etc.

That said

have explosive diarrhea on command.

Also, have a plan for what to do if a stranger tries to kiss you on the mouth, VJ-Day-style. I'm happily married but have consulted with my spouse and I'm this specific circumstance she has decided that she would let me live.

I will walk directly to my boss's office and announce that I have previously scheduled leave. My boss is clueless about such things and will take it as a given that he must have approved it. If your boss pays attention to whether you are around, you may need a different plan, like being able to

It's important to have contingency plans for When It Happens.

I have identified the nearest liquor store to my office and critical Metro stops, so if I'm at work or commuting there will be <25 minutes between Hearing the Good News and driving straight from a bottle of champagne in public.

I'm near DC, so spoilt for choice in terms of Ethiopian restaurants, but I have started making it at home as well and some things, like shiro, are shockingly easy once you can find ingredients.

Yeah maybe I'm missing something and it will activate secret leftist Irish Americans or something, but that video struck me as...dull. Boring, lecturing, too long, all of it. I respect the breadth of knowledge, but damn