Getting rid of what works, and what doesn’t
The regime was arguably on its last legs when the Israelis and Americans attacked. It might not survive an end to tension with the West.
Posts by Daniel Serwer
Intersections, not convergence
The best way to generate international norms for technology is in what we call in international relations an epistemic group of global experts.
Statehood and language
Albanian as an official language is a right, a reflection of the state’s multiethnic character, and a necessity for a just and sustainable constitutional order.
Iran lost militarily but won strategically
The war is ending with the strait of Hormuz in Iranian control. The US and the Gulf lost. Iran lost militarily but won strategically.
Trump is desperate, the Iranians are winning
Trump is now desperate to end the war before it causes more damage to the world economy. He can't credibly claim victory if Iran owns the strait.
Iran holds the Trump cards
America is not better off now than before the war. Trump should have ducked out by now. He is stuck in a war without an upside for the United States.
Trump has disempowered America
Surrender of the strait to Iran and retreat from the Middle East will weaken the US. So too will failure to support Ukraine.
The Iranians can get what they want
The Iranians will try to impose unilaterally a permanent toll on passage through the strait of Hormuz. It is going to be hard to stop them.
Trump has lost Netanyahu’s war
Trump is in peril of losing all but his most loyal voters. No wonder he is trying not only to end the war but also to make voting harder.
Trump has already lost his Iran war
Trump is stuck in a war of his own making. But it is the rest of us worldwide who will pay for his mistake.
Trump has driven America into a dead end
Trump wants to pull the plug. The Israelis don't. And the Iranians are demanding outcomes that neither Israel nor the US can concede.
Trump wants to pull the plug
A year from now, we are likely to be remembering a highly effective military operation that did not achieve its strategic objectives. Or we'll still be at war.
Ending the Iran war well won’t be easy
The devil is not only in the details, but in a highly uncertain future. This war was a giant wager. There is a lot to lose on both sides.
Do the Balkans really want EU membership?
When the political window opens for Iceland or Ukraine, I hope the Balkan candidates will be ready and willing.
Lots of things can still go wrong
Even if the war were to end tomorrow, the impact would continue to ripple into the future. There are lots of known unknowns and unknown unknowns.
It’s about regime change, no doubt
The greater powers often excepted themselves from the rules-based order. Now it is in tatters. We are going to miss it when it is gone.
A pattern of quiet ethnic cleansing
Recognizing and addressing discrimination against Albanians in Serbia is essential not only for Albanians, but for democratic principles across the region.
Trump chooses regime change by aggression
Regime change in Iran is a giant gamble. There is no guarantee that more reasonable people will be able to take power as a result of this war of choice.
Failure is no only an option
Trump's peacemaking week is looking like a bust. The Ukraine war isn't ending, Gaza isn't getting reconstructed, and so far there is no deal with Iran.
America’s Iran options aren’t great
Unless Iran agrees to unprecedented constraints, or Washington drops its broad portfolio of demands, we are in for a long standoff.
The Board of Peace is another Trump scam
The Board of Peace is another Donald Trump scam intended to empower himself. The sooner it implodes, the better.
The Trump through line is unrestrained power
Trump should understand that the quickest way to end the Ukraine war is to tighten the sanctions. And give Ukraine everything it needs to win.
The domestic cures for Trumpmania
This move wouldn't necessarily save Greenland, Venezuela, or Iran, but it would slow Trump's perfidies and force him to move towards the center.
Stop him before it is too late
Trump is hurting American security in the Arctic. He wouldn't know a threat to national security if it fell on the White House.
Color me skeptical but surprise me, please
A one-state outcome with unequal rights will prevail. Frustration will increase and boil over, tragically for both Israelis and Palestinians.
Negotiations with Iran >>>>> bombing
The US and Iran do not have immutable reasons for mutual hostility. A modus vivendi with Israel could yield enormous benefits for Iranians.
Trump is hurting US security in the Arctic
EU members and other democratic states should get their act together to pre-empt Trump's next moves in Greenland. He is their adversary, not their friend.
Greenland’s defense should not be American
Europe Plus needs a policy of resolve. A first demonstration of such a policy would be a preventive deployment of European and allied forces to Greenland.
They know it was murder and are trying to ensure he is not prosecuted, so more ICE murderers can act with impunity.