Advertisement · 728 × 90

Posts by

The head of the FBI isn't supposed to be getting blackout drunk. He's supposed to be cross-dressing

5 days ago 10713 1524 250 88
Post image

NASA’s Artemis II Reveals the Basin in Full
For the very first time, the mysterious Orientale Basin has been fully photographed. Thanks to Artemis II, humanity now sees the Moon in unprecedented detail, reminding us of the endless wonders beyond Earth. 🛰️

1 week ago 4657 886 282 103
Post image

Imagine if instead of spending billions of dollars supporting terrorists or weapons, the United States had spent that money helping the people of the United States

1 week ago 19536 5257 1178 390
Within 10 days, parts of the global economy will start running short of critical goods
After 30 years studying economic sanctions and blockades, I don’t say this lightly:
--Not just higher prices
--Shortages.
Markets are not ready for this
9:25 PM · Apr 12, 2026
·
950K
 Views
Relevant
View quotes

Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
·
8h
Everyone is still talking about oil prices
That’s already outdated
--This is no longer a price shock
--It is the early stage of a system-wide supply shock
Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
·
8h
Here’s the mechanism:
price spike → physical shortage → economic contraction
We are now crossing into step 2
That’s when things break.
Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
·
8h
~20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
That flow is now constrained -- by Iran AND US
And it’s not just oil—it’s the base layer of modern production:
fuel, fertilizer, plastics, much more

Within 10 days, parts of the global economy will start running short of critical goods After 30 years studying economic sanctions and blockades, I don’t say this lightly: --Not just higher prices --Shortages. Markets are not ready for this 9:25 PM · Apr 12, 2026 · 950K Views Relevant View quotes Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape · 8h Everyone is still talking about oil prices That’s already outdated --This is no longer a price shock --It is the early stage of a system-wide supply shock Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape · 8h Here’s the mechanism: price spike → physical shortage → economic contraction We are now crossing into step 2 That’s when things break. Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape · 8h ~20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. That flow is now constrained -- by Iran AND US And it’s not just oil—it’s the base layer of modern production: fuel, fertilizer, plastics, much more

Once inventories run down, this stops being about expensive inputs
It becomes about missing inputs
Factories don’t slow because costs rise
They stop because materials don’t arrive
Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
·
8h
We’ve seen the smaller version of this.
1973: ~7% supply disruption → shortages, rationing, industrial decline in under 90 days.
Today’s shock is larger.
The system is tighter -- We are at Day 45
Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
·
8h
The sequence from here is predictable:
Asia first → Europe next → global compression
Not collapse
Contraction
Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
·
8h
The U.S. won’t be spared
Energy independence doesn’t protect a globally integrated economy
When supply chains seize, the shock transmits via trade reductions
Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
·
8h
This is the real shift:
Prices no longer determine outcomes
Access does
And once that flips, governments start choosing winners and losers
Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
·
8h
Watch one thing this week:
Ships through Hormuz
--Not statements
--Not markets
If flows don’t recover, the system tightens further -- necessarily
Robert A. Pape
@ProfessorPape
·
8h
By the time shortages show up in headlines, it’s already too late
That’s how these shocks work
Full breakdown—mechanism, timeline, what happens next:  new analysis:  Escalation Trap substack

Once inventories run down, this stops being about expensive inputs It becomes about missing inputs Factories don’t slow because costs rise They stop because materials don’t arrive Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape · 8h We’ve seen the smaller version of this. 1973: ~7% supply disruption → shortages, rationing, industrial decline in under 90 days. Today’s shock is larger. The system is tighter -- We are at Day 45 Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape · 8h The sequence from here is predictable: Asia first → Europe next → global compression Not collapse Contraction Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape · 8h The U.S. won’t be spared Energy independence doesn’t protect a globally integrated economy When supply chains seize, the shock transmits via trade reductions Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape · 8h This is the real shift: Prices no longer determine outcomes Access does And once that flips, governments start choosing winners and losers Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape · 8h Watch one thing this week: Ships through Hormuz --Not statements --Not markets If flows don’t recover, the system tightens further -- necessarily Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape · 8h By the time shortages show up in headlines, it’s already too late That’s how these shocks work Full breakdown—mechanism, timeline, what happens next: new analysis: Escalation Trap substack

"Watch one thing this week:
Ships through Hormuz
--Not statements
--Not markets
If flows don’t recover, the system tightens further -- necessarily"

I hate to bring X here, but it's silly to discuss any of this disaster without this context that I'm not seeing this clear anywhere else

1 week ago 271 85 16 12
Post image

this being the thing that crosses the line for many rightwingers is so illustrative of how they don’t really care about anything real that actually matters. their problems are all entirely fictional

1 week ago 10983 1583 280 87
Post image

The 240 is one of my favorite cars. I daily drove a 5 speed wagon for 2 years and only sold it to buy a non rusty 240 (which unfortunately sold by the time I had completed sale of mine! So I bought a ‘93 SAAB 900 instead). I will own another someday

1 week ago 0 0 0 0

“Miata is always the answer” small cars are more fun!

1 week ago 0 0 0 0

Get one that’s rust free if you can !

1 week ago 1 0 0 0

When I daily drove a 1990 240 wagon, I put my kids in it and my older kid drove it when he got his license. Volvo & SAAB were basically in an arms race to build the safest car.

1 week ago 1 0 0 0

The shared excitement over NASA’s recent mission compared to the general indifference to SpaceX missions speaks to the power of something seen as the product of communal human effort rather than just the ego and avarice of one obnoxious dork.

1 week ago 17910 3683 502 206
Advertisement
The result has been something like an inverse caricature of Republican complaints about diversity, equity, and inclusion, a system in which the incompetent rise not because of their abilities but because of their sycophancy. Authoritarian regimes behave as the Trump administration is behaving—optimizing for political loyalty rather than competence. Merit, in short, has little to do with it.

Hegseth is a prime example. Deeply unqualified for the job and convinced that brutality provides an easy path to victory, he has led the United States to the verge of a strategic defeat with a weaker adversary in Iran. The current cease-fire leaves Iran with a more hard-line government than before, one in total control of a shipping lane crucial to the world economy. The Islamic Republic is arguably in a stronger position today than it was when the war started, and probably in a stronger position than it was before Trump, in his first term, scrapped the Obama-era nuclear deal.

On Sunday, Trump posted on his social network a refrain that he and his toadies seem to think is insightful: “If you import The Third World, you become The Third World!” This archaic social Darwinism is the ideological mortar of the Trump project. It fuses Hegseth’s disdain for diversity in the military’s senior leadership and valorization of brutality with the administration’s attack on birthright citizenship and its deployment of federal agents to occupy American cities. It is a worldview that would assume an easy victory against a country like Iran, especially with America’s new, “unwoke” military. Bigotry isn’t just inefficient, as the U.S. military discovered in the 1940s. It also makes you stupid.

The result has been something like an inverse caricature of Republican complaints about diversity, equity, and inclusion, a system in which the incompetent rise not because of their abilities but because of their sycophancy. Authoritarian regimes behave as the Trump administration is behaving—optimizing for political loyalty rather than competence. Merit, in short, has little to do with it. Hegseth is a prime example. Deeply unqualified for the job and convinced that brutality provides an easy path to victory, he has led the United States to the verge of a strategic defeat with a weaker adversary in Iran. The current cease-fire leaves Iran with a more hard-line government than before, one in total control of a shipping lane crucial to the world economy. The Islamic Republic is arguably in a stronger position today than it was when the war started, and probably in a stronger position than it was before Trump, in his first term, scrapped the Obama-era nuclear deal. On Sunday, Trump posted on his social network a refrain that he and his toadies seem to think is insightful: “If you import The Third World, you become The Third World!” This archaic social Darwinism is the ideological mortar of the Trump project. It fuses Hegseth’s disdain for diversity in the military’s senior leadership and valorization of brutality with the administration’s attack on birthright citizenship and its deployment of federal agents to occupy American cities. It is a worldview that would assume an easy victory against a country like Iran, especially with America’s new, “unwoke” military. Bigotry isn’t just inefficient, as the U.S. military discovered in the 1940s. It also makes you stupid.

Wrote about how Hegseth’s effort to resegregate the upper ranks of the US military ties into the larger MAGA project to restore hierarchies of race and gender: www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/0...

2 weeks ago 2313 839 48 34
Post image

Charlie Kirk: “If I see a Black pilot, I’m going to be like, boy, I hope he’s qualified.”

Meet the pilot.
🧑🏾‍🚀🚀🌔💙🤘🏾✨

1 week ago 4505 928 171 56

They spent a decade complaining about safe spaces and then made a robot to give you compliments and tell you your mp3 of farting noises is Brian Eno

1 week ago 4895 930 34 7
Post image

Picture of the century. 😍

📷 credit: Science Tube

1 week ago 30823 4536 919 335

I like when conservatives are clear that they regard things like workplace safety as “communism” bsky.app/profile/phil...

2 weeks ago 2216 463 40 6
Post image

Dan Rather represents an era when journalism wasn't as polarized into political groups. I miss those days. 😭

2 weeks ago 22283 4933 418 167
Christopher Penn wrote:

Just remember that given the abundance of neurodivergent people in science, it's far more likely that autism causes vaccines.

Christopher Penn wrote: Just remember that given the abundance of neurodivergent people in science, it's far more likely that autism causes vaccines.

A different perspective.
Always helpful.

2 weeks ago 19427 4282 193 171
Post image

This is the truest truth of all the truths (and there aren't many).

2 weeks ago 20674 5837 661 316

American pilots should stop getting shot down, it's unpatriotic, and disrespectful to the Commander in Chief. Donald Trump didn't get where he is today by getting shot down.

2 weeks ago 16 2 3 0
Post image Post image

First as a tragedy, then as a farce.

2 weeks ago 44 7 2 0
Advertisement

Rightwing dudes: "Women shouldn't be in leadership. Women shouldn't vote. They're not rational like men."

Also, somehow, rightwing dudes: "The hand of God teleported me to a Waffle House."

2 weeks ago 9242 1756 93 62
Post image
2 weeks ago 329 85 20 2
Post image
2 weeks ago 186 53 5 2
Post image
2 weeks ago 45 6 0 1

A lot of Trump voters I spoke to during the campaign were convinced the Wrong People were getting free stuff and that Trump would make sure the Right People (them) got it. bsky.app/profile/fact...

3 weeks ago 2258 485 79 23

mom can you pick me up at the strait of hormuz, my friends are laughing at me and wont help

1 month ago 15161 2702 208 96

But did Leon Skum interfere with the data?

1 month ago 6 1 0 0
Post image

Thought I would have gotten used to it by now, but I’m still grappling with the realization of just how stupid the men running this country are.

1 month ago 24591 5908 1629 433

Every ICE officer who has broken the law should be arrested, tried, and imprisoned for their crimes.

1 month ago 14491 2951 564 149
Advertisement
Video

Obama: "We are living in a time where it can be hard to hope. Each day we wake up to some new assault on our democratic institutions. Another setback to the idea of the rule of law ... but this man - Rev. Jesse Jackson - inspires us to take a harder path ... bc if we don't step up, nobody else will"

1 month ago 24637 7069 525 424