Up-to-date info on pre-war econ baseline and post-war econ impacts. Yes, oil and gas, but not just them (that's the 30-year mortgage rate below).
econjared.substack.com/p/weekly-wra...

How Union Bargaining Can Buoy Affordability A true affordability agenda should raise wages. Unions and collective bargaining can help achieve that.

The affordability debate is overlooking a key factor: higher wages. Union bargaining is the way to get there, @jaredb-econ.bsky.social and I argue for @theprogressivemag.bsky.social: tinyurl.com/mr2n8pas

This is such important work, and practically in real time, which is very important. Also, shows economists can apply our skills to aid the resistance!

The Affordability Conundrum: A Debate on How To Deliver Immediate Relief While Expanding Supply YouTube video by Center For American Progress

Aside from the annoying moderator, I thought this price control debate was 1-2 std devs above the mean for this sort of thing. Jam packed with substance, evidence, logic, tradeoffs, clarity, and respect. And on an interesting, timely topic.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrpm...

Is the Affordability Crisis a Crisis? I think so. Here's why and what we can realistically do about it.

Definitely K-shaped forces in play but you really have to understand the shock caused by the increase in the price level. See sentiment model herein and note how price-level-shock variable explains the large residual.

open.substack.com/pub/econjare...

Opinion | Yes, Politicians Should Run on Affordability

Affordability policy is often accused of aiming to lower the overall price level. Not so! The agenda is grounded on 2 criteria: a) short list of living-standard essential goods/services, wherein b) the market that produces them is flawed.
www.nytimes.com/2026/01/05/o...

Is This Economy Great or Awful? A Q & A on the factors behind the "big, yellow gap."

Explaining the "big, yellow gap" between how folks feel about the economy these days (bad) and overall growth (good). As usual, we don't have all the data we need to explain the gap, but I draw on a lot of what we do have.
econjared.substack.com/p/is-this-ec...

Gemini just told me this: "While many people in the finance industry are increasingly interested in strength training, there are no well-known, high-profile economists famous specifically for their fitness or a muscular physique."
Sounds right but I'd still like a fact check.

Higher Education Spending: The Role of Medicaid and the Business Cycle | Brookings Brookings Policy Brief #124 by Thomas J. Kane and Peter R. Orszag. (September 2003)

Recall this being a useful dive into these issues: www.brookings.edu/articles/hig....

Looking forward to reading! Based on abstract, what do you think of a countercyclical program that ramps up in downturns to help newly unemp afford college (which for comm col means life costs more than tuition)? Useful nudge at strategic time??

...with high inflation, of course. It's that they're not assuaged by low inflation, which just means the prices they're unhappy with are still climbing, only more slowly.

I'm seeing this from the excellent @gelliottmorris.com: "I explain how “affordability” has become the new “inflation”" I've learned over many years now that affordability is much more a price level issue than a price change issue (tho normal people conflate the 2).
It's not that people are fine...

Healthcare Affordability: How Democrats Can Press Their Advantage On This Key Issue Here's a set of affordability ideas that reside at the intersection of good politics and good policy.

Healthcare affordability policies reside at the intersection of good politics (for Ds) and good policy (for all...well, except rent-seekers). Joint w @nealemahoney.bsky.social
econjared.substack.com/p/healthcare...

Good point. I noted downside to markets. I don’t like it either. But given heightened uncertainty and unusual disruption to dataflow still think could be worth it.

IKR!

Should They Cut or Should They Hold? "If they cut there will be trouble. If they hold it will be double." So, what the Fed should really do is push the meeting back a few days.

Should they cut or should they hold? Or should they push the damn meeting back a bit to have a few more drops of precious data?! Some noodling on the Fed's Dec meeting:
econjared.substack.com/p/should-the...

So, professor, if you were on the FOMC (which would be awesomely great), would you cut or hold at the Dec meeting? (Apologies if you say so in that hit which I didn't listen to...my b.)

Tuesday's Mashed Potatoes Getting ready for T-giving, here's a mash up: a few numbers of interest, and Greg Ip says affordability can't be solved and is therefore a loser for incumbents.

You know how many were saying, even as the u-rate crept up of late, "of course, X% is still historically low unemployment." I think at 4.4%, that's no longer quite right, but interested in others'--some name-checked here--takes.
econjared.substack.com/p/tuesdays-m...

My mind has been blown! I grew up listening to the highly nuanced music of the Modern Jazz Quartet featuring Connie Kay on drums. I just learned that Connie Kay played on Joe Turner’s shake rattle and roll w its huge crazy backbeat! How did I not know that?! (Tho there’s some disagreement.)

The affordability crisis focuses on prices. That makes sense for reasons I articulate in this piece, but for economists, it's not just p (prices) that matter. It's y/p (real incomes). Just want to be careful not to lose sight of that part of the equation!
econjared.substack.com/p/the-afford...

A calculation somebody needs to do: take u-rate, payroll change, infl rate and average month t-1 and t+1. Report forecast error re t. @guyberger.bsky.social @ernietedeschi.bsky.social
@aaronsojourner.org
Thank u 4 your attention to this matter.

Five Reasons Lawmakers Should Reject Expansions of Health Savings Accounts Expanding health savings accounts (HSAs) is a key element of Republicans’ health care policy agenda. Ostensibly, HSAs allow people enrolled in certain health insurance policies to set aside money...

Sorry, progressives & health care policy wonks. But we're going to have to re-remind everyone why Health Savings Accts are a tax shelter for the wealthy, not health insurance. Note distribution of premium tax credits vs. HSA contributions.
www.cbpp.org/blog/five-re...

Seems strong to me! Gorsuch today, warning about this very point: “a one-way ratchet toward the gradual but continual accretion of power in the executive branch and away from the people’s elected representatives.”
We fought a revolution against such kingly actions to tax w/out consent from Congress!

Opinion | The Tariff King and the Supreme Court Will the Justices stop Trump from usurping Congress’s power over taxes and tariffs?

On Trump's tariffs, I consistently find myself in firm agreement with the often crazy WSJ ed board! Their latest on how SCOTUS conservatives would have to bend themselves into a massive pretzel to support Trump is deeply incisive, rooted in historical precedent.
www.wsj.com/opinion/dona...

Fed Governor Defends Call for Big Rate Cuts

Tough to square the following a) it's not tariffs keeping inflation above target & b) rates must be cut. If it's not tariffs/goods pressures--which should subside when (if!) tariffs land on a rate--then it's something else that's harder to "look thru."
www.nytimes.com/2025/11/01/u...

Who's Spending and What Does That Imply For Growth? The weight of the evidence suggests an economy that's considerably more fragile than some of the data--remember when we used to get data?--are showing.

There's considerable evidence that consumer spending is increasingly skewed toward the top, driven by the weaker job market and slower wage growth. Given the extent to which spending has fueled this expansion, that's a fragility that bears close watching.
econjared.substack.com/p/whos-spend...

Opinion | A.I. Sure Looks Like a Bubble. Watch Out When It Pops.

It looks like a bubble to us:
www.nytimes.com/2025/10/14/o...

Breaking News: Contrary to their Claims, Republicans are Perfectly Happy to Raise Taxes And not by a little, but by over 100% and over $100bn. It's just a matter of who they hit.

Re the shutdown, this is one of those moments when it's crystal clear who's fighting for whom:
econjared.substack.com/p/breaking-n...

Taylor Swift - The Fate of Ophelia (Visualizer) YouTube video by Taylor Swift

I'm way outta my lane here, and playing with very hot fire. No intention to throw any shade, just wondering if others hear it. The hook on Taylor Swift's new single reminded of that from this older Demi Levato tune.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=svcb...
www.youtube.com/watch?v=1zfz...

Just so you know, if you hear a collective wail of pain, angst, and withdrawal from data nerds the world over at 8:30am ET this morning, here's why.