Maybe we do end up doing very well on unlocking huge demand flexibility, but historically we've really struggled at this. I've always been an advocate for not putting all our eggs in one technology (or regulatory) basket. We need to push on all of these options, and there's no reason we can't.
There's a huge amount of value we can get out of better utilizing our system, and in a high-VRE future it'll probably make a lot of sense to pay people not to consume (or let them voluntarily curtail). But we're never going to get large chunks of industry to just turn off for days to weeks.
It's not impossible, but I'm pretty comfortable saying that demand response is never going to obviate the need for clean firm options. It'll help of course, maybe reduce the scope of that need, but just like clean firm isn't a "silver bullet," neither is DR.
So the question becomes: what does "modeling the grid properly" look like? Because I'm not aware of any studies that show no role for clean firm if we care about getting close to a zero-carbon grid.
Like I say in this article, the optimal system almost certainly features a diverse resource mix.
There's an important battle going on behind the scenes that will change how big companies buy clean energy and report their emissions. @wilsonar.bsky.social & @energykillian.bsky.social explain what's at stake and why these changes are important on @volts.wtf www.volts.wtf/p/the-escala... 🔌💡
Alex Epstein bitching about how the new bill doesn't really repeal IRA clean energy credits
You love to see it:)
it’s pretty wild that the nation’s first climate law is headed towards a chainsaw and the only people talking about it here are wonks
Looks like transferability of tax credits is maintained.
Foreign Entity of Concern language is substantively different from House bill, but still applied throughout. Critical question: is this workable for industry to comply with? Safe harbor language clarified (good). Stay tuned...
What does the future of enhanced geothermal power generation look like?
Fervo offered an update to partners and investors at its #capeconnect event today, showcasing progress on its 100MW Cape Station project in UT.
I tagged along and I learned a lot. Some highlights based on my notes follow… 🔌💡
The advanced geothermal company Fervo says it drilled a 15,700 foot well and reached temperatures of 500°F (260°C) in just 16 days of drilling.
That’s a big improvement from last year, when it drilled an 8000 ft well and reached 370°F temps in 41 days.
www.linkedin.com/posts/timlat...
“We know a number of entomologists. One of our very good friends now does not have the emotional courage to hang up a sheet to collect moths at night. It is too devastating to see how few there are.”
Just deeply, deeply alarming
www.theguardian.com/environment/...
In particular, elimination of clean electricity tax credits would remove a key driver of early EGS adoption and reduce the long-run benefits of successful scaleup. It is critical that these supports remain in place if emerging technologies like EGS are to achieve their full potential.
Long-term outcomes are sensitive to near-term deployment. Our findings suggest that efforts to facilitate early deployment and better understand uncertainties in enhanced geothermal’s cost and learning potential should be key near-term policy and development priorities.
Such a large role depends on substantial reductions in the cost of EGS wellfields, which we argue must be driven largely by advances in reservoir design.
...EGS could plausibly grow to contribute up to a fifth of total US electricity generation by 2050 and drastically reduce the cost electricity generation and decarbonization even east of the Mississippi – a much larger role for the technology than has been previously assumed.
We find that if a) EGS performance continues to improve incrementally in the near-term, b) supportive federal policies remain in place, and c) EGS costs fall with scale at a rate similar to unconventional oil and gas...
This means that we can explore the conditions under which EGS (or its competitors) could achieve ‘commercial liftoff’ through a virtuous cycle of increasing deployment and falling costs, and the long-run implications for the US electricity sector if it is able to do so.
This analysis uses an ‘experience curves’ framework to model the evolution of costs for EGS and other emerging technologies over time, assuming that – like wind, solar, batteries, and unconventional oil and gas before them – the cost of these technologies will fall with increasing deployment.
It first leverages data from recent pilot projects to develop the first empirically-grounded near-term cost projections for EGS power in the US, then uses these as inputs to an electricity system capacity expansion model to explore potential adoption pathways for EGS over the coming decades.
This paper builds on prior work to address two key questions: where and under what conditions could EGS deliver cost-competitive power in the near term, and to what extent could it contribute to electricity generation nationwide if it can be successfully brought to scale?
I am happy to announce that the final piece of my doctoral work on next-generation geothermal technologies has been accepted for publication as a research article in 𝘑𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘦, with an open-access manuscript available at doi.org/10.5281/zeno...
PJM gets a lot more (still deserved) attention on the subject, but Bonneville Power Authority has been absolutely abysmal at connecting clean power in Oregon and Washington. Just ONE project has gotten approved in the last decade, and advertised wait time is 15 years!
Everyone says enhanced geothermal is the next fracking. That's only a little "bit" true.
The shale fracking boom was a product of its unique market structure. Enhanced geothermal is very different.
Latest from me and @buddyyakov.bsky.social at CPE—here's what a geothermal boom *really* requires:
Some big Fervo Energy news today. We’re excited to welcome Shell as a new customer at Project Cape. And announce that we are upsizing the project by 100 MW to 500 MW, using the same number of planned wells, due to productivity breakthroughs we have achieved.
www.houstonchronicle.com/business/ene...
WoodMac releases it's latest US wind market report. www.woodmac.com/press-releas...
Here's the good, bad and ugly...
(mini 🧵)
🔌💡
And like half of the private foreign aid is just Bill Gates. For all the criticism of Effective Altruism, private philanthropy really does suck at allocating resources where they're needed most (total US charitable giving is $550bn/yr)
Next-generation geothermal energy has a number of advantages in meeting growing US electricity demand from data centers. Our recent analysis shows it could economically meet up to 64% of this expected electricity demand growth by the early 2030s. Learn more: rhg.com/research/geo...
Thanks a million to @ricoconnell.bsky.social @wilsonar.bsky.social and Julia Matevosyan for joining @sarabaldwin.bsky.social and me for a discussion on grid reliability in the clean energy transition today!! Check out the conversation here
