The ships have the right to be there. That's the problem.

While the world is anxiously watching the Strait of Hormuz, another maritime drama is playing out in the Gulf of Finland:

The drama of the traffic jam involving dozens of shadow vessels.

www.politico.eu/article/gulf...

Me @politico.eu. No paywall.

Insurance is available. But it's too dangerous to sail.

A Wait in the Strait.

Nothing much is moving, because shipowners don't trust a ceasefire that may collapse at any moment.

The upshot may instead be a tiered scheme that will see Iran grant tiered access (and fees) to the Strait.

Me @foreignpolicy.com foreignpolicy.com/2026/04/09/h.... Gift link.

Major news from the UK MOD: Russia has been conducting a large campaign scouting out UK cables and pipelines.

This is extremely worrisome - but not surprising.

(I'm finishing Undersea War right this moment.)

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cg...

We're truly in goodbye globalization territory now.

Thank you @wojciechprzybylski for the invitation to discuss the state of globalization and how geopolitics is interfering with it.

Imagine being stuck on a ship with missiles and drones flying around you.

Imagine that on that ship you have crewmates who have been injured or even killed.

And supply ships are struggling to reach you.

The reality for seafarers trapped in the Persian Gulf.

www.politico.eu/article/seaf...

Trapped in the Gulf Tens of thousands of seafarers wait with fear and boredom as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

The ships trapped in the Persian Gulf are crucial - but let's spare a thought for the equally crucial 20,000 seafarers trapped there.

All they can do is wait until the Strait of Hormuz is safe - and the Persian Gulf is hardly safe either.

foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/23/p... (Me @foreignpolicy.com)

Future Center - The Strait of Hormuz's Other Lifeline Future for Advanced Research & Studies

There's rightly a lot of focus on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf.

But in these waters are also undersea cables that are indispensable to the surrounding countries - and the world.

They, too, are now at risk.

futureuae.com/en-US/Mainpa...

Great piece on the report by Edward Lucas in today's @thetimes.com www.thetimes.com/comment/colu....

Just published:

The Reserve Potential: What the UK Can Learn from Top-Performing Allies

A National Preparedness Commission report by yours truly. Featuring impressive & adaptable practices from Norway, Sweden, Estonia and Denmark.

nationalpreparednesscommission.uk/publications.... No paywall.

Little is known about how an escort through the Strait of Hormuz would work.

And shipowners have a duty of care for their crews. The fewest will risk a journey that could cost seafarers' lives.

Seafarers Are Being Asked to Risk a Deadly Strait Cutting off the Persian Gulf is hitting the global economy hard.

Some 20,000 seafarers are stuck on vessels waiting to pass the Strait of Hormuz.

The new US insurance plan for the Strait is unlikely to get traffic moving, because it's the risk of attacks that's holding ships back.

foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/09/h... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. No paywall.)

The Iran war is already affecting shipping - and thus Europe.

Both us European shipowners and us Europeans as recipients of cargo now stuck in the Persian Gulf.

www.politico.eu/article/midd... Me @politico.eu. No paywall.

It has to do with UNCLOS. It was straightforward to board this vessel as it was in territorial waters.

Insurers Are Keeping Ships Away From the Strait of Hormuz As chaos spreads from Iran, global shipping is buckling under the strain.

Vessels are stacked up, waiting, on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz.

Going through is so dangerous that underwriters have in effect cancelled transits.

This will have knock-on effects on global shipping & the global economy.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/03/i... (Me @foreignpolicy.com. No paywall.)

‘This is so big that I can’t believe I’m part of it’: How Swedes are preparing for war Sweden has begun training its civilian reserve. The UK needs one too

A hostile state is planning an attack on the Nordic countries' energy infrastructure, Swedish media report.

The threats against our countries are real.

(And it's a good thing Sweden has established an electricity-repair crew reserve, www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/pol...)

Coming out this October:
www.thebookseller.com/rights/basic...

The US tech giants use a lot of subsea cable connectivity - and these days, they're major cable owners (including sole owners).

What would happen if they, for whatever reason, decided to suspend connectivity to Europe?

www.politico.eu/article/us-t...

(Me @politico.eu. No paywall.)

Indeed. There still is no such system. People have tried, but...

The UK has a formidable Strategic Reserve of ex-regulars - in theory.

In reality, it doesn't know how to reach many of them. That's a massive loss - and an opportunity to make amends, because we need these qualified men and women (I write in today's @thetimes.com)

www.thetimes.com/comment/colu...

Five Norwegians in public life have caused their country damage through their association with Epstein.

That's a pity, because especially in a world with a world with growing conflicts, Norway (with its diplomatic prowess) is indispensable.

foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/20/n... (Me @foreignpolicy.com)

The Baltic Sea nations have launched a plethora of collaborative initiatives - from patrolling to AI - to look after their shared mini-ocean.

Such regional collaboration may be the future of NATO.

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre... (Me @theguardian.com. No paywall)

‘This is so big that I can’t believe I’m part of it’: How Swedes are preparing for war Sweden has begun training its civilian reserve. The UK needs one too

Russia is mercilessly bombing Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Sweden is wisely planning ahead - by launching an electricity-repair reservist corps.

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/pol... (Me @prospectmagazine.co.uk. No paywall.)

‘This is so big that I can’t believe I’m part of it’: How Swedes are preparing for war Sweden has begun training its civilian reserve. The UK needs one too

'This is so big I can't believe I'm part of it': at lightning speed, Sweden has conceived and launched an electricity-repair crew reserve.

I had the privilege of writing about this extremely impressive undertaking for @prospectmagazine.co.uk. No paywall.

www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/pol...

America Is Trying to Bully the World Over Climate Change The Trump administration has sabotaged a key maritime treaty.

Here you go foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/05/t...

Mining without rules: The risky US bet on the deep sea Amid efforts to acquire coveted critical minerals, in April 2025 the United States permitted deep-sea mining within international waters. Elisabeth Braw explores the implications of the Trump Administ...

The arms race on the seabed: the US is moving ahead with deep-sea mining in international waters (outside UNCLOS and thus outside internationally approved licences).

@atlanticcouncil.bsky.social Maritime Threats Initiative's latest report (by yours truly): www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-res....

Before Greenland, there was the International Maritime Organization.

Last year, the IMO's members were about to pass a pioneering greenhouse-gas reduction treaty.

Then the United States deployed its new style of diplomacy.

foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/05/t.... Me @foreignpolicy.com. Gift link.

Consumers around the world are boycotting US brands. There's even a Danish app that allows users to check US links.

That's clearly bad news for US companies (I write on today's @financialtimes.com).

www.ft.com/content/3276...

(Yes, that's a picture of the Berlin Wall. Feel free to guess why!)

What would Ireland be without its fishermen? They:

- stopped a Russian Navy exercise in Irish waters when the government failed to

- alert the authorities to suspicious activities around undersea infrastructure.

www.politico.eu/article/fish...

(Me @politico.eu)