Bonus: War With Iran: What Is the U.S.'s Endgame? Podcast Episode · Kellogg's Global Politics · March 2 · 58m

Polymarket currently gives a 17% chance the Iranian regime falls by March 31st.
@arkellogg.bsky.social thinks that's low. I think Trump will bail before then due to economic pressure.
Who's right? We recorded this 24 hours into the conflict.
🎙️ Kellogg's Global Politics: bit.ly/3OMiGFw

📰 New Podcast Episode!
@arkellogg.bsky.social and I cover a lot of ground:

🛸UFO Update (US Congressional UAP Hearing on September 9th)
🕊️Gaza Peace Plan: Trump Done Good?
💰Argentina First, America Last?
⚠️Illiberalism on the March in Western Europe

bit.ly/47bPcGK

Talking Trade with William A. Reinsch - Kellogg's Global Politics Trade has been a major issue for the Trump administration, and Anita recently spoke with William A Reinsch, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, on all aspects of th...

📰 New Podcast Episode!
Interview by @arkellogg.bsky.social with @csis.org 's William A. Reinsch discussing Trump trade policy & tariffs.

We also cover:
• Russia-Ukraine War Peace Efforts
• US Strikes on Latin American Drug Cartels?
• Iran after the 12-day War: Still a Threat?
bit.ly/3JJ8Y4t

5/Ultimately agree with the article that we shouldn't give up on advancing classical liberal values by shutting our doors to Chinese students, even if the US strategy of changing the CCP as a whole, via economic liberalization in the early 2000s, turned into a colossal failure.

4/But most returnees are going to be undergrads and master's students, usually from well-off & connected families. Maybe this can overcome the growing bias against hai gui and still land government roles--in which case they could be well positioned for American intelligence.

(PDF) The Hesitant Hai Gui: Return-Migration Preferences of U.S. - Educated Chinese Scientists and Engineers PDF | Managers, administrators of research institutions, and policy makers need a greater understanding of the factors that drive return migration... | Find, read and cite all the research you need on...

3/Research I did with UCLA's Robert Zeithammer found that PhD students with more nationalist pride were willing to sacrifice higher incomes in the US to return home & contribute to China's rise. Meaning that the 15-20% of those that do return might not be receptive to US intel wooing. bit.ly/3I3eC0x

2/Most Chinese students in the US (~220,000) are pursuing undergrad and master's programs with the intention of returning home. This is separate from the 50,000 PhDs (mostly in STEM) that largely stay after graduation (80-85%) and play a critical role in US R&D ecosystem, particularly in AI.

1/Trump's all over the place on the China student visa issue and got major MAGA blowback for his 600,000 number. Interesting take in @thehill.com from @niskanencenter.bsky.social's Gil Guerra regarding recruitment of Chinese students for US intelligence purposes. A few thoughts. bit.ly/4p59eL7

Stemming the American Brain Drain A lack of sustained federal funding, deteriorating research infrastructure and networks, restrictive immigration policies, and waning international collaboration are driving this erosion into a full-s...

A lack of sustained federal funding, deteriorating research infrastructure and networks, restrictive immigration policies, and waning international collaboration are creating a full-scale American Brain Drain.

We went to the Hill last month to talk about it.
fas.org/publication/...

Mega-polluter China believes it is a climate saviour It accounts for almost 40% of global investment in clean energy

5/All of this does seem to be setting up China to be the global 'savior' around climate change--if not in reality than at least as a powerful marketing tool for the CCP to use in global forums to further it's soft power gains. shorturl.at/w9lfs

Analysis: Clean energy just put China’s CO2 emissions into reverse for first time - Carbon Brief For the first time, the growth in China’s clean power generation has caused the nation’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to fall despite rapid power demand growth.

4/One benefit of an emerging Chinese 'electrostate' is regardless of US action, emissions should be in for major declines. A flood of cheap Chinese solar & EVs in the Global South should cut future GHG growth and China's own emissions should follow EU/US decline trends, right? shorturl.at/ynbEO

US LNG versus Chinese Solar Intense competition between China’s solar-centric energy and US LNG is underway — but who is set to win?

3/In terms of energy exports, US LNG has higher margins/value, but locks in customers for decades, has a volatile fuel price, and requires specialized infrastructure. Chinese solar panels+batteries seems more modular and appealing for the developing world. shorturl.at/nD1fw

Drones Are Key to Winning Wars Now. The U.S. Makes Hardly Any. A four-day test in the Alaska wilderness shows how far the U.S. military and American drone companies lag behind China in the technology.

2/Given bi-partisan national security concerns on China and the increasing importance of drone warfare--are we now disincentivizing battery development for these applications or just ones for EVs? Seems like both since the tech stack is interlinked. shorturl.at/Dz9Xb

Opinion | Trump Is Turning Us Into a Doddering Industrial Giant Smothering electric vehicles might have been a regrettable mistake for a Republican to make 10 years ago. Today, it is economic idiocy.

1/@robinsonmeyer.bsky.social 's NYT oped on China's growing lead on renewable technology is a must read. Is the US making a major strategic blunder--losing not only economically, but also global hard and soft power? A few thoughts. shorturl.at/3SYe8

How Europe is vying for rare earth independence from China The EU is aiming to increase its own production of rare earth metals, led by a facility in France.

MY LATEST:

🧃 "It's basically like if you have a multi-fruit juice.."

🚗#rareearths are essential to so much tech we rely on

🇫🇷 My visit to @SolvayGroup in France explains how they're produced & how #Europe is trying to become less reliant on #China

www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Here's a link to the Trump AI plan. Not much concern about job displacement in here... bit.ly/4ftn4Te

Thanks for pointing this out. Haven't read through it all yet, but this section in the Trump AI plan stood out since it runs counter to US AI champions like OpenAI (closed model, for-profit). It's been Chinese models like Deepseek that are leading the open source race.

These nuclear reactors fit on a flatbed truck. How safe are they? Firms are close to bringing the first “micro reactors” to market, with hundreds being shipped within the decade and dotting the landscape. Is America ready?

Nice overview by @evanhalper.bsky.social on nuclear microreactors. It seems like great potential for niche uses where fuel sources like natural gas and diesel are unavailable or limited (i.e. isolated communities, space), but project economics will be a killer elsewhere. bit.ly/4mbVYCA

Liberation Day Redux--Trump Tariff Fallout; Thai-Cambodian Conflict; Ukraine War Update - Kellogg's Global Politics We look at the current state of U.S. trade deals. Who has a deal? How many will get signed by August 1st? Will there be another extension? And what is their economic impact on the U.S.?We then discuss...

📰 New Podcast Episode!
Liberation Day Redux — @arkellogg.bsky.social & I discuss
• Trump’s tariff fallout: Who’s winning (if anyone is)?
• The deadly flare-up on the Thailand–Cambodia border
• The latest on the Russia–Ukraine war and shifting U.S. policy.
bit.ly/4mtA0KS

The Real Meaning of Putin’s Middle East Failure Russia’s allies in the region couldn’t count on Moscow—and neither should China.

2/If that happens it will be another sign of how far Russia has fallen in the Middle East as discussed in @mcfaulmike.bsky.social & Abbas Miliani's excellent piece in @foreignaffairs.com. bit.ly/4mwlF0t

How Trump's 'secondary tariffs' on Russia could hit global economy The sweeping secondary tariffs could cut the flow of Russian oil and gas to global markets.

1/Not sold on Trump’s threat of secondary sanctions on Russian oil buyers — markets would panic if triple-digit China tariffs return. Still, good point by @jonathanjosephs.bsky.social : OPEC+ may boost supply to stabilize prices, helping shield US consumers in the short term. bit.ly/4msDBJ8

Why Russia’s Slow Collapse Is More Dangerous Than You Realise YouTube video by Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics

In which Pyotr Kurzin and I have a pleasant chat on a gloomy subject -- sanctions, economic warfare, and Russia's war on Ukraine www.youtube.com/watch?v=gfjX...

@warwickecon.bsky.social @cagewarwick.bsky.social @britishacademy.bsky.social @cepr.org

Fellow podcast host of Kellogg's Global Politics, @arkellogg.bsky.social quoted recently by TND about US-China trade deal progress and the August 12th deadline. We discuss more in next week's episode. bit.ly/3TYqIuk

This seems highly unlikely given Trump’s stated goal of $50/bbl oil. Plus keeping Russian crude off the market means going after big buyers like China and India. Lower energy prices is the only thing keeping US inflation under control since ‘Liberation Day’

China Is Spending Billions to Become an A.I. Superpower Beijing is taking an industrial policy approach to help its A.I. companies close the gap with those in the United States.

Nice piece on China's AI push in @nytimes.com. I wonder if the Chinese model can compete with US public-private innovation hubs like Silicon Valley, Austin, RTP etc--I think Hangzhou's Dream Town is the only equivalent. Beijing's $8.5B for AI start-ups seems like chump change though. bit.ly/40xUY2U

In China, the master’s degree is the new bachelor’s degree College graduates are earning master’s degrees just to have a chance in a job market marred by China’s shaky post-pandemic recovery.

Nice article by @joshuaqyang.bsky.social on the degree creep in China for new grads. A tough labor market and lower pay back home has been one of the main reasons why Chinese PhDs in the US have high stay rates (>80%). All the more reason not push them out with hostile visa policies. bit.ly/3Uaav5d

Why China Is Building a Thorium Molten-Salt Reactor China’s demo reactor could breed nuclear fuel from rare earth waste

That's interesting-I wasn't aware that China had some small pilot plants using thorium. My understanding is that thorium produces less radioactive waste and is easier to mine. Looks like China has an advantage on supply since it's a waste product of rare earth mining. bit.ly/3IHv2eV

Talking Drones, Robotics, and the Future of Warfare | The 12-Day War (Israel-Iran Conflict) - Kellogg's Global Politics In this episode, Anita speaks with Lt. Col. Alex Montgomery and Lt. Col. Shannon Waller about the Autonomous Systems and Robotics Industry and how these technologies are changing how wars are fought. ...

@arkellogg.bsky.social talks with Lt. Col. Alex C. Montgomery & Lt. Col. Shannon Waller about drones, robotics, and the future of warfare on the latest episode of Kellogg's Global Politics. Interesting insights into how the US & South Korea approach innovation in the defense industry. bit.ly/4eYCGOt

6/From a climate perspective, Chinese solar has been a big positive. Can't think of a national security threat that cheap solar panels pose to the US. Biden's subsidies to support US companies on silicon-based panels never made sense--support R&D to leapfrog to next gen tech instead.

5/Good luck to the Chinese if they can make nuclear economically sustainable. Again seems like a low margin business that US and other allies have ignored until recently. Would be concerned if Chinese were leading in next gen reactors, but think they are still using GE light-water reactor designs