I'm with you! Let's not forget 2014 when all the models were going strongly for El Nino and nothing came of it (until the following year). www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahea...

Do you have the sense that summers feel different than when you were younger? That they start quickly, and remain intense until the fall? You’re not wrong. (thread)

Why the phrase “Super El Nino” makes Australian climate scientists roll their eyes Media reports have suggested a “super” El Niño is looming. The problem is, these autumn forecasts are notoriously unreliable.

You can set your watch to autumn headlines declaring a catastrophic El Niño or La Niña. In this article, I throw a bucket of cold water on the heated headlines and reflect on why autumn forecasts of Nino3.4 are to be read with caution.
theconversation.com/why-the-phra...

New APRA insurance vulnerability report shows 25% of Aus households may have no home insurance by 2050; one million households more than today. That’s ~40,000 households losing insurance protection every year for 25 years.
Biggest cause: more climate change extremes
www.apra.gov.au/mind-gap-an-...

Photo of an absolutely massive pine tree after it fell down in a storm. Roots are higher than a person, foliage is much larger than a nearby house

We used to have an absolutely enormous pine tree that was apparently sold to the original owners 50 years earlier as a "dwarf pine". Lol.

Extreme Coastal Waves Due To Australian East Coast Lows in a Warming Climate Extreme coastal waves from 12 historically significant East Coast Lows simulated in a warming climate Modest decrease in nearshore wave height, wave period and cumulative wave power projected alo...

This work (led by our PhD student Aditya Deshmukh) shows that if a series of recent extreme East Coast Lows (off Australia's east coast) were to occur in a warmer climate they would not produce higher peak wave heights - good news for the region agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/...

After a busy week of inspiring science and socialising in nipaluna/Hobart, it's nice to finally rest on the couch with the cats. #AMOS2026 was fantastic as always, one of my favourite weeks of the year! @amosupdates.bsky.social

Is the Australian storm track shifting south? - Climate Dynamics Climate Dynamics - Cool season rainfall has declined in recent decades in many areas of the southern hemisphere subtropics and midlatitudes including parts of southern Australia. This has been...

It took a loooooong time but it's finally out!

We argue that the winter storm track isn't actually "shifting south". Rather, the cool season drying in southeast Australia is linked to a weakening of the northern edge (while the core stays put & intensifies).
link.springer.com/article/10.1...

When I review papers it's always something I bring up because rainbow palettes are still suuuuper common but shouldn't be!

Great to be in sunny Hobart in lutruwita/Tasmania for the @amosupdates.bsky.social 2026 meeting. Here’s the gorgeous view from kunanyi/Mt Wellington yesterday. The very apt #AMOS2026 conference theme is “southern skies, southern oceans: science on the edge”.

I know it’s intentional but we should stop calling everything AI, lumping useful machine learning techniques for science with large language models that tech companies are trying to cram into everything.

If you're interested in how extratropical lows are changing in Australia as the world warms, there's a short summary of some recent research on the BoM website: www.bom.gov.au/news-and-med...

And I made a little web app where you can go and download monthly precipitation time series data from your location of choice (as long as it's in Australia) wateriso-aus.shinyapps.io/apic/

As the world warms, extreme rain events are coming hard and fast When it comes to extreme rainfall, it's hard for climate scientists to say what's natural and what's caused by climate change, but they do know the most extreme events are dropping more rain, more oft...

"Observations show that across the globe, the heaviest daily rainfall events are averaging about 8 or 9 per cent more rain today than before the pre-industrial era"
www.abc.net.au/news/2026-01...

I read LotR for the first time when I was 11 and it was lifechanging, I hope it is for him too! Can't wait until my 7yo is ready for it (and all my other childhood favourites).

One small highlight of 2025: I managed to read 133 books, my highest total since 2016 (not counting all the books read to children). Mostly SFF of course!

I suspect I'll read fewer next year, as it feels like time to reread LotR.

Given how much money we have to pay journals to publish papers, you would think they could at least manage to hire support staff with reading comprehension or customer support who actually answer emails *grumble mutter whinge*

Looking for postdoc positions in the UK studying weather extremes?

Two jobs with deadline 4th Jan:

Historical windstorms, working with two insurance companies: jobs.reading.ac.uk/Job/JobDetai...

Storylines of extreme events, as part of a European collaboration: jobs.reading.ac.uk/Job/JobDetai...

Wrote this ages ago, still relevant
www.scientificamerican.com/blog/hot-pla...

Meteorology and Climate of the Southern Hemisphere | Cambridge University Press & Assessment

Exciting news 🎉 Our CCRC scientist Andréa Taschetto and team have just released “Meteorology and Climate of the Southern Hemisphere” book, an updated edition of David Karoly’s 1998 monograph, published by Cambridge University Press. +
Available at lnkd.in/g4SFsM9k

www.cambridge.org/au/universit...

What's NCAR? and 8 ways it has helped you

www.forbes.com/sites/marsha...

Climate impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Australia Nature Reviews Earth & Environment - El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) profoundly affects Australian weather, climate, ecosystems and socio-economic sectors. This Review presents...

🚨New paper
CCRC scientist Andrea Taschetto and team have published a comprehensive review of ENSO impacts in Australia in @natrevearthenviron.nature.com. This is an important and long-overdue synthesis, building on foundational studies such as McBride & Nicholls (1983). ++

Not every day we get 35 x 10⁶ AUD for ocean research.

rms.arc.gov.au/RMS/Report/D...

Excellent job from Our Future Oceans team! 🌊

Congrats @profmattengland.bsky.social, @adele-morrison.bsky.social, @andyhogg.bsky.social, @janzika.bsky.social, @nicolamaher.bsky.social and many more!!!

Watch to the end. Mother Nature is not messing around

Storms in the Southern Ocean are producing more rain – and the consequences could be global The Southern Ocean is the engine room of global heat and carbon uptake – and it’s changing faster and more dramatically than we thought.

🌊 Storms in the Southern Ocean are producing more rain

👉 28% rainfall increase (vs ERA5’s 8%)
👉 Storm rain intensity up
👉 ~2,300 Gt/yr extra freshwater in 2023
👉 Ocean “cooling by evaporation” up 10–15%

One of Earth’s key climate buffers is shifting.

theconversation.com/storms-in-th...

Southern Annular Mode dynamics, projections and impacts in a changing climate - Nature Reviews Earth & Environment The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) has shifted towards its positive phase owing to ozone depletion and increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. This Review discusses the dynamics, trends and projections...

New review led by @ariaan.bsky.social on climate effects of the Southern Annular Mode, the most important mode of climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere. Read it in @natrevearthenviron.nature.com at doi.org/10.1038/s430... 🧪 #academicsky #climate #climatechange

It's always nice as a scientist to see datasets you developed years ago are still being used to do useful things. But when planning future research it's hard to decide when it's valuable to update old datasets/analyses using new models etc, vs moving on and doing something new (thus higher impact).

BAMOS Vol 38 Q4 Nov 2025 BAMOS Vol 38 Q4 Nov 2025 | Page 6 The Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society BAMOS Vol 38 Q4 Nov 2025 Highlights include: - Another Sudden Stratospheric Warming in 2025; - 2025 ACCESS Community Workshop:...

In the latest edition of the Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, I am taking another look at this year's Sudden Stratospheric Warming. I think it had more of an impact than I thought it would back in September. viewer.joomag.com/bamos-vol-38...

New research from our team! We identify places where the hottest temperature on record is not particularly severe compared to what is possible (a.k.a "soft records"). rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

Ahhhh, the relief when you've been anxiously waiting the reviews of a paper for 6 months and they finally come back as minor revisions. Having this paper completely finished with by the end of the year will be an excellent Christmas present!