Line chart titled ‘The Optimism of Youth’ comparing median assigned probabilities for 19 common phrases between respondents under 18 and those 75 or older. Phrases are ordered from lowest to highest probability. Across most of the range, under-18s assign higher probabilities than those 75+—for example, ‘Unlikely’ is 12% for the older group vs. 20% for younger, and ‘Realistic Possibility’ is 60% vs. 70%. The two groups converge at the extremes (‘Almost No Chance’ is 4–5% for both; ‘Will Happen’ is 100% for both) and in parts of the middle range (‘Might Happen’ and ‘About Even’ are 40% and 50% respectively for both). One exception stands out: ‘Probable’ is assigned 75% by those 75+ but only 70% by under-18s.
Column chart titled ‘Will It Though?’ showing the distribution of probabilities assigned to the phrase ‘will happen’ by survey respondents, grouped in 10-point buckets. The chart is sharply right-skewed. The 100% bucket is the tallest by far with 3,320 responses, followed by 90–99% with 1,625. Responses drop off steeply after that: 143 in the 80s, 46 in the 70s, 18 in the 60s, and fewer than 10 in every lower bucket. The 30–39% range has zero responses, but all other buckets have at least one. Despite 100% being the most common answer, roughly a third of respondents chose a value in the 90s, and a small number are spread across nearly every other range.
Last week's #TidyTuesday: how different age groups valued probability phrases—with differences most apparent between the two ends, under 18 and 75+.
Also, how is "will happen" not 100% for…100% of people?
tidytuesday.seanlunsford.com/...
