In the latest STR episode CFS Research Fellow Gonzalo Saiz is joined by @michellewb.bsky.social, and Claire Grunewald to examine how Russia’s shadow fleet emerged and what governments can do to disrupt its operations.
Listen to the podcast: https://bit.ly/3PPUPFl
All but 2 LNG carriers sailing to load at Qatar or the UAE turned around in the Gulf of Oman.
Windward is tracking extensive & immediate disruption to LNG carriers, with at least 8 abruptly changing course before transiting the Strait of Hormuz within a four-hour window on February 28.
this EU-flagged VLCC turned off its AIS and transited through the Strait of Hormuz bound for Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia
tell-tale circles turning up everywhere -- I'm literally watching this happen in real time
while significant disruption is seen for tankers exporting energy commodities, especially those with Western affiliation, traffic is still sailing through Hormuz. but you can see from where I've indicated in red boxes, the widespread GPS jamming which places ships on land & 'crop circles'
Widespread AIS interference and GPS jamming apparent throughout the Middle East Gulf. this is a typical pattern for one impacted vessel
this EU-operated bulk carrier signalled Sharjah after leaving Khor Fakken to sail through Hormuz but then turned around after apparently losing AIS signal for five hours
Some brief observations from the @windward-ai.bsky.social
platform of the chaos in the Middle East and impact on maritime traffic. This Chinese-owned VLCC loaded and sailed through past 12 hours no problems
Agreed have noted the same thing but I think this by-the-foot approach is for marine insurance reasons
windward.ai/blog/cameroo...
the game of flag governance whack-a-mole continues, although the dark fleet appears to be running out of flags, and fraudulent flags are no longer an option. haven't seen a falsely flagged tanker transit for at least a week I think. link to blog below:
Exclusive HD satellite pic of 🇷🇺 submarine KRASNODAR in Alexandria (Egypt - مصر 🇪🇬)
Last appearance of this Kilo-class was a few weeks ago, tracked by NATO-commanded 🇮🇹 ships.
This port visit is much more discrete than the previous one in Algiers 🇩🇿...
Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, the EU's top diplomatic official Belén Martinez Carbonell warned that Russia's shadow fleet is now one of the most direct maritime security threats facing Europe. #MSC2026
ukdefencejournal.org.uk/eu-official-...
ANNA MARIA (IMO: 9407469) got a new anchor and chain delivered in Kalundborg, Denmark after port-call in Ust-Luga, Russia.
No information where she lost her anchor and chain.
Photos: Poul Blasen / Facebook (www.facebook.com/groups/69399...)
Washington DC here I come! I'll be there next week for the Windward Academy, Feb 3. Link to join below: ⬇️
I'll be delivering the keynote, followed by an expert panel that will focus on designing mission-critical maritime intelligence for U.S. operational superiority. go.wnwd.com/windward-aca...
I'll be in Washington DC on Feb 3 for the Windward Academy to talk maritime intelligence/dark fleet and the defining feature of 2026: the blurring of commercial and military in shipping in an increasingly fractured, uncertain and disrupted world. Link to register:
go.wnwd.com/windward-aca...
LIVE WEBINAR ON PREPARING FOR EU BAN ON RUSSIA-DERIVED REFINED PRODUCTS: The 'laundering loophole' is being closed, banning diesel, jet fuel, gasoline etc from refineries in Türkiye and India.
On Wed. Jan 14) I'll be joining Daniel Martin to talk about what this means.
go.wnwd.com/eus-russian-...
this ship is special in the sense that until very recently it was operating under a new identity. it wasn't so much a zombie vessel as a rebirthed tanker. it falsely claimed to be new tanker and got the flag state to apply for a new IMO number. The IMO issued it but cancelled it
Falsely flagged, EU and US-sanctioned Ethera (IMO 9387279) flying the flag of the fraudulent registry of Guinea is sailing through the English Channel right now laden with Russian oil.
more about this @windward-ai.bsky.social Maritime Defense Weekly windward.ai/blog/maritim...
that's super interesting thank you. china (the discharge destination for all dark fleet activity) might actually want to do something about these floating rust buckets if there's a chance they'll cause damage to their own environment
Article 110. even though US not UNCLOS signatory, it abides as do all member states. UNCLOS underpins 11 billion tonnes seaborne trade annually.
it's greek owned not dark. no time to check out, but all good. dark fleet won't call EU
The Dark Fleet, Lifeline of Sanctioned Oil Revenues, is Under Attack.
Free to read @windward-ai.bsky.social blog that outlines the new and rapidly evolving strategy that's emerged to counter the dark fleet in Venezuela and the Black Sea
click on link:
windward.ai/blog/the-dar...
the risk that false flag ships pose to coastal states now playing out in a pass-the-parcel standoff between Türkiye and Bulgaria over Kairos, which was attacked by Ukrainian drone on November 28. Turkish-flag tug "purposely" towed Kairos to Bulgaria waters and cut adrift
windward.ai/blog/ukraine...
@auonsson.bsky.social
@pa.nton.cx
@claudialanz.bsky.social
the game of flag governance whack-a-mole continues. Gambia's government follows Comoros in cleaning up the mess left by private contractors running their ship registries. Spoiler alert: Russia hijacked them to ship sanctioned oil & deliver billions in revenue for Kremlin windward.ai/blog/gambia-...
I’ve seen this with Gambia ships that were deleted by govt (will post that story here in a sec). My guess is they’re exploiting lax provisional registration to find a temporary home, they’ll hop to another in a few weeks
Greek-owned tankers have largely underpinned oil price cap-compliant Russian crude shipments since the start of the war. Not any more windward.ai/blog/greece-...
A shadow fleet operating beyond flags, insurance, and basic safety is testing Europe’s security.
Windward’s @michellewb.bsky.social provides key insight to BBC on why the risks are intensifying and why “the dark fleet is getting darker.”
www.bbc.com/news/article...
well worth a read via Google translate, Jakob does great work on the shadow fleet in the Baltic
I've taken a look and will send off for investigation, a very uneconomic and strange trail