Luis Sattelmayer applauded by his friends after his thesis defense

Luis Sattelmayer defending his thesis before his committee.

🎓 Congratulations to Dr @luissattelmayer.bsky.social who just defended his thesis “Competition Between Equals: Mainstream Party Decline, Far-Right Evolution, and the Transformation of Party Competition in Western Europe”.

👉 www.sciencespo.fr/centre-etude...

cc @edr-sciencespo.bsky.social

Est-ce que ce ne serait pas le moment de rappeler que le mode de scrutin pour les municipales en France est tout pourri ?

Couverture du dernier numéro de la Revue française de science politique. Dossier "Elections françaises 2024 (II)" comprenant notammnent l'article de Malo Jan.

#VendrediLecture 📚

L’opposition aux politiques climatiques comme stratégie électorale.
La conflictualisation de la compétition partisane sur les enjeux écologiques en France (1981-2024)

par @malojan.bsky.social
dans la Revue française de science politique

👉 shs.cairn.info/revue-revue-...

It must be very hard to publish null results Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.

I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.

Happy that my article just published in PSRM! In "Inclusion to Exclude“, I show that when politicians invoke women's rights to justify anti-immigration positions, it shifts citizens' policy preferences - but differently so depending on their prior views. doi.org/10.1017/psrm...

[Thread below]

New publication 🥳

Really happy to see our work on symbolic climate policies with @theodoretallent.bsky.social and @luissattelmayer.bsky.social published today in the APSR @apsrjournal.bsky.social !

We learned so much while writing this paper. Thanks to everyone who helped make this possible!

Giorgia Meloni a-t-elle changé ? La question qui divise les politistes italiens Au pouvoir depuis trois ans, la présidente du conseil italien suscite le débat chez les chercheurs en sciences politiques. La normalisation de cette dirigeante issue de la matrice néofasciste s’accomp...

Échange avec @lemonde.fr (merci!) sur l’extrême droite et l’érosion de la démocratie en #Italie. Non, cela n’arrive pas qu’en Europe de l’Est et aux US. @sciencespo-cee.bsky.social @scpo-research.bsky.social www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl...

New publication with @turnbulldugarte.com in @psrm.bsky.social! 🧵

We study whether citizens’ liberal values are selective: do people support policies based on who promotes them?

Short answer: Yes, and it's driven by ethnic out-group disidentification. (1/11) 👇

doi.org/10.1017/psrm...

HOW GENDER AND ATTITUDES TOWARDS GENDER AND SEXUALITY SHAPED VOTES IN THE 2024 EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS IN FRANCE ANJA DUROVIC, NONNA MAYER & NOEMIE PIOLAT Abstract. This article analyses the impact of gender and attitudes towards gender and sexuality on voting behaviour in the 2024 European Parliament elections in France, in line with recent research on electoral gender gaps, particularly youth gender gaps. Three main findings emerge. First, women did not vote more often than men for left-wing lists; in fact, they voted more often than men for Rassemblement national (RN), a finding that stands in sharp contrast to trends in modern gender gaps or to persistent radical right gender gaps observed in many European countries. Second, and most notably, in contrast again to many other countries, we found no youth gender gap in voting behaviour for the major left-wing or right-wing parties in these elections. Third, attitudes towards gender and sexuality weigh heavily on the results: modern sexism, in particular, is associated with a higher likelihood of voting for the RN list and a lower likelihood of voting for left-wing lists. Overall, the French case highlights that distinguishing between gendered political attitudes and actual gendered voting behaviour remains crucial. Keywords : European Parliament elections, France, (youth) gender gaps, left-wing vote, RN vote, sexism, (hetero)sexism.

Among other interesting reads about the 2024 European election, don't miss

"How gender and attitudes towards gender and sexuality shaped votes in the 2024 European Parliament elections in France"
by @anjadurovic.bsky.social, Nonna Mayer & @npiolat.bsky.social.

shs.cairn.info/revue-europe...

2/2

Looking forward to welcome Cristóbal R. Kaltwasser @sciencespo.bsky.social on Monday 1st December
12.30 - 2 pm for a joint seminar about populism and the far right in Europe and the Americas @sciencespo-cee.bsky.social @cdsp-sciencespo.bsky.social @cevipof.bsky.social @scpo-research.bsky.social

Je me sens moins seul à expliquer qu'il n'y a pas droitisation par en bas. Cet article rejoint sur le Royaume Uni rejoint les conclusions que j'ai établi sur la France

[Séminaire d'axe] Gendering ideational approaches to radical-right populism: A conceptual intervention with Ov Cristian Norocel, Lund University

📅 Happening tomorrow

Don't miss this seminar by visiting professor Ov Cristian Norocel (@norocel.bsky.social), Associate Professor in gender studies at Lund University.

His research interests include gender and intersectional perspectives in right-wing populist political communication in Europe. ⤵️

📈 Los jóvenes españoles giran a la derecha.

Es un vuelco histórico: nunca en 40 años se habían ubicado tan a la derecha. Nunca habían sido el grupo más de derechas.

Hasta ahora. Hilo 👇

[Book cover] What is Politics? The definitive guide to politics in our polarized times. Edited by Colin Hay. [Accompanying text] What is Politics? Colin Hay Written with the new student in mind, this probing introduction will be essential reading for all those who strive to make sense of politics in today's world. Paperback 978-1-5095-5906-0 £ 18.99 / € 22.99 Also available in hardback and as an eBook

#VendrediLecture 📚

What is Politics?
edited by Colin Hay
@politybooks.bsky.social

Exploring what it means to 'think politically' in these troubled times, this cutting-edge textbook reveals the many dimensions of politics.

👉 www.politybooks.com/bookdetail?b...

cc @scpo-research.bsky.social

Signez la pétition Non à la suppression des APL pour les étudiant·es étranger·es !

Suite à sa publicisation sur la liste professionnelle des politistes, je me permets de vous partager un pétition contre la suppression des APL pour les étudiant(e)s étrangèr(e)s. Le droit d'étudier dignement vaut pour tout le monde.
www.change.org/p/non-%C3%A0...

J'ai un peu eu l'impression de m'être perdu dans la cour des grands, mais la présentation et les échanges qui ont suivi était absolument passionnants. Je recommande !

(Et quel bonheur d'avoir de telles interventions dispos au format podcast)

The Spanish centre-right is taking a tumble and the far-right is on the rise.

I was lucky enough to present some new causal work on Friday at LSE showing that the PP does better when it signals distinctiveness from VOX.

~1.5K tests, same result. Rejecting far-right benefits centre-right

( @jcostalopez.bsky.social )

... and by thanking Dr @julianmhoerner.bsky.social for making me adopt the mnemonic lens!

Reconquest 2.0: the Spanish far right and the mobilization of historical memory during the 2019 elections This paper brings together the literature on far right parties, medievalism and opinion leadership in order to more closely interrogate the memory politics of the far right. We address two broad qu...

📄 I'll end this post with a recommendation to read Marc Esteve-Del-Valle's and Julia Costa López's article on how Vox mobilised memory online during the 2019 elections - one of these works that you find so well constructed you wish you had written them yourself: doi.org/10.1080/2374... ...

💡 Some further exciting research could probably be done on how political actors (previous legislators included) discursively construct such oppositions and how they bridge them to their core ideological claims (i.e. territorially rooted nativism in the case of Vox).

The 12th of October has to be a day of reparation, not of celebration" (Telegram post, translation my own). Indeed, doesn't really make you want to party.

This is nonetheless a good example of how mnemonic (cultural) cleavages can impact contemporary politics.

🟣 Podemos' leader and former minister Ione Belarra (radical left), on the other end, argues that "Spain shouldn't celebrate as its National Day on the day which reminds of the genocide and pillaging of Latin American peoples. [end on next post]

⚔️ But current political parties have different views on this

🟢 Vox's leader Santiago Abascal (far right) loves that day, and even congratulates "the Spaniards who are proud to be Spaniards" and who "honour their History" (X post, translation my own). You can already feel the 'cultural war' thing.

⚖️ The law n°18/1987, which was adopted by the Socialists and reaffirms the 12th of Oct as the National Day, says that it "symbolizes the historical anniversary on which Spain [...] begins a period of linguistic and cultural projection beyond the boundaries of Europe" - a pretty way of putting it ✨

For those who might not know, this is the day on which Christopher Columbus arrived in the Americas in 1492.

But I won't spend too much time defining it, since the most exciting part of this probably is... to see how political actors argue on how to frame it 💘.

French politics have been quite intense this week, but how about I keep talking about my own obsessions anyway?

🇪🇸 Today was the National Day of Spain, or Spanishness Day ('Día de la Hispanidad').

Emilien Houard-Vial, politiste : « Les Républicains demeurent la figure de proue d’un mouvement général de consentement à l’extrême droite » TRIBUNE. Dans une tribune au « Monde », le chercheur estime que le parti dirigé par Bruno Retailleau semble coincé entre la tentation de l’exercice du pouvoir avec les macronistes et celle d’une radic...

Mais qui est donc cet esprit clairvoyant qui nous gratifie de toute sa clairvoyance ?
www.lemonde.fr/idees/articl...

Our research makes it clear: by capitulating to the right, Labour is driving voters to Reform UK | Tarik Abou-Chadi and Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte Mimicking Farage on immigration is senseless. Labour voters feel betrayed; anti-immigration voters see through the ruse, say academics Tarik Abou-Chadi and Stuart Turnbull-Dugarte

For the Guardian, @turnbulldugarte.com and I discuss our research that clearly shows one thing: Labour's anti-immigration strategy will only strengthen Reform and weaken its own electoral prospects. It won't win voters back but ultimately normalizes the far right

www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Radical right accommodation really does not work.

New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk

doi.org/10.31235/osf...