Chart showing weekly real-terms value of various benefits: UK
This year’s Universal Credit uplift means that the basic rate of unemployment benefits will go up by more than inflation for the first time since 1983.
But the real-terms value of unemployment benefit is still 5% lower than in 2010-11. By contrast, State Pension rose by 20% over the same period.
@benchu.bsky.social Happy to talk you through the welfare stats next time you do this (as used in Chris Giles' FT write-up at www.ft.com/content/ee67... or my blog at inequalities.substack.com/p/resolution...)
'Ever-expanding welfare budget' klaxon. There is no welfare budget and welfare expenditure as % GDP does not show a consistent rising trend over any timeframe since the 1980s. www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026...
**False accusations of fraud: lessons from the Carer’s Allowance Overpayments review**
New post at inequalities.substack.com/p/lessons-fr...
Why medicalisation is the wrong target for social security reform
After a bit of time away from work, I'm getting back into some writing and thinking on mental health and social security.
New blog below on what policymakers miss when they focus on overmedicalisation and mental health
disabilitysocialsecurity.substack.com/p/why-medica...
Chart showing weekly real-terms value of various benefits: UK
This year’s Universal Credit uplift means that the basic rate of unemployment benefits will go up by more than inflation for the first time since 1983.
But the real-terms value of unemployment benefit is still 5% lower than in 2010-11. By contrast, State Pension rose by 20% over the same period.
Poverty numbers have been revised down, but poverty hasn’t fallen.
Head to our Substack, where @alexclegg.bsky.social explains what the DWP's data release last week does and doesn't tell us about poverty in the UK.
SCORE, a collaboration of 865 researchers, is now released as three papers in Nature, six preprints, and a lot of data (cos.io/score/). SCORE examined repeatability of findings from the social-behavioral sciences and tested whether human and automated methods could predict replicability.
This explanation makes me sad: Alex Preston is properly taking responsibility, but what a bloody *stupid* way to torch your reputation (and your ability to write for quite a few outlets) to save a few minutes.
As he's taken responsibility and not made excuses I feel able to say: poor guy.
***Timms Review: Call for Evidence is now out!***
Please do send in things on the 4 key themes:
1. Role & purpose of PIP
2. Eligibility/fairness (who should get what)
3. Experience of claiming
4. Wider societal changes & how they affect PIP
You have until 28th May - see
www.gov.uk/government/c...
British politics is hooked on flashy fake numbers – and the AI investment debacle proves it | Jonathan Portes
The chart shows that childless Britons losing employment will see less of their vanished wages replaced by benefits than those in any other comparable country, aside from Australia and the US. Even for a lone British parent with two children, the so-called ‘replacement rate’ is 16 percentage points lower than the OECD average, representing the fourth-lowest level of relative support for such a family across the entire rich-country club.
The safety net for Britons is far lower than most of their counterparts.
Many other benefits systems around the world hardwire in a link between typical wages and benefit rates.
More➡️ buff.ly/a300OG4
Are we underestimating popular discontent with welfare state change, and the damage done to political-institutional trust? New measures of "welfare state emotions" suggest as much. With Tor Syrstad and Atle Haugsgjerd. journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
About growth in Europe and the US; it’s not the story you’ve heard open.substack.com/pub/paulkrug...
Universal Credit’s problems aren’t a mystery… so why do they persist?
In our recent substack post, @alexclegg.bsky.social argues that UC's flaws are widely known, well evidenced, and relatively cheap to fix...if the Government is willing to genuinely listen to claimants.
➡️ buff.ly/tAggcVM
Pleased to see this written up by the FT, and to see my driving analogy make the cut. We need to look beyond just the fiscal speedometer.
www.ft.com/content/c88b...
agree with this (hah) but also think a particular mistake the left made for a long time online, and still makes to an extent, is failing to understand that the person whose mind you may actually change is the one reading the argument you're having, not the one you're arguing with
Absolutely! My most cited paper (obviously nothing compared to Card..) had a null result.
I agree - instead of seeing this a anti-quant, better for quantitative researchers to be in conversation with those with lived experience to figure out what they should be measuring (like we're doing in @welfare-experience.bsky.social !)
Really like this way of doing system maps with experts by experience, and comparing them to system maps generated by experts & policymakers - a really persuasive way of showing what's missed from research/policy ways of thinking
We asked claimants what was the biggest problem with UC, and one issue came up more than any other ⤵️
Panel 1: A tech bro strides across a stage. The word “PeoplBOTS” is in huge letters behind him. He says: “Our journey began with a simple question:” Panel 2 “Can we create a robot that is enormously powerful, but also completely safe?” Panel 3 “The answer to that question was 'No'.” A huge red armoured metal robot trundles across the stage belching smoke. It has a flamethrower for one arm and large shears for the other. Its eyes glow meanly red. Tech bro announces “So I give you: Dangerbot900!!”
A recent cartoon for @newscientist.com.
p.s. my new book of science cartoons, ‘Physics for Cats’ is out now. Links at www.tomgauld.com
The Equality Act should protect disabled people at work
But @citizensadvice.bsky.social supported 5,393 people with health-related job discrimination in 2025 - roughly one every 1.5 hours
Mine and @victoria-anns.bsky.social's new report digs into the barriers our disabled clients face at work /1
🎉I’m delighted to announce the publication of my book! 🎉
“𝐌𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐏𝐚𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐌𝐚𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐖𝐞𝐥𝐟𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬: 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐏𝐨𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐜𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐈𝐧-𝐖𝐨𝐫𝐤 𝐁𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐟𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐧𝐢𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐊𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐝𝐨𝐦”
link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
This book is the final milestone from my PhD and I hope is useful to scholarly debate.
Please do forward on @louisemurphy.bsky.social sky.social @mikebrewerecon.bsky.social y.social @eduinlatimer.bsky.social @beccastacey.bsky.social @pollardtom.bsky.social - and many thanks!
Please do forward on @kingscsmh.bsky.social l @annieirvine.bsky.social @benjaminbarr.bsky.social @heejungchung.bsky.social @jedmeers.bsky.social @martinbaekgaard.bsky.social @jdportes.bsky.social tes.bsky.social - and many thanks!
Job opportunity - we need a fab new colleague to do quant research on work, welfare and mental health within
@kingscsmh.bsky.social (closes 8 Feb)
This is funded until Apr/28, but we'll support you in bids to extend it - please do circulate to suitable ppl!
www.jobs.ac.uk/job/DQD294/p...
