News: WH released proposed FY27 budget, continuing to push plan to eliminate NOAA Research and massively cut Earth sciences - while NOAA grant data for FY2026 shows only 7 new grants so far compared to 379 in FY2025, further evidence of curtailed science budget execution. tinyurl.com/5e3ptub2
Hello from 34k ft in the air as I’m headed to @AMSTropical. I just wanted to share that TC-ATLAS now features environmental diagnostics from ERA5 courtesy of TC-PRIMED and interactive NEXRAD radar data in the global archive page: michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/ind...
Good idea. There should at least be a KML link in the global archive now. Still need to test it properly but hopefully this helps.
Quick screenshot from my phone. Feel free to explore more here: michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/glo...
One more new feature: The global archive page of TC-ATLAS now has a "models" toggle so you can review the evolution of past forecasts going back to 1991. Some notable examples of challenging forecasts below. michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/ind...
Haha I did change over last weekend, but we shall find out :)
I wanted to create a helpful tool, especially for the research community, to better understand tropical cyclones. This is essentially a collection of multi-platform observations used to examine TC convective and vortex structure. Shout out to Claude for the help making this possible.
To highlight some of the capabilities, users can draw custom vertical cross-sections, compute shear-relative quadrant means, explore 3D isosurfaces, overlay IR and microwave obs on tail Doppler radar analyses, and even compute custom composites.
Interested in hurricanes? I want to introduce TC-ATLAS: the Tropical Cyclone Analysis Tool for Live and Archived Structure. Explore live or past storms without writing a line of code or downloading a data file, building on the capabilities of TC-RADAR: michaelfischerwx.github.io/TC-ATLAS/ind...
Unfortunately the sky was indeed the limit. Catastrophic #Melissa is on track to be the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the Atlantic in 90 years. Just absolutely gutted for the souls in Jamaica.
#Melissa is intensifying very rapidly this evening. TDR structure is nearly perfect for a TC of this intensity. Incredibly symmetric, strong eyewall, and a deep, aligned circulation. The sky is the limit. Very scary situation.
And here we go again with Hurricane #Melissa. RI ongoing and expected to continue.
Ground-based radar imagery from Jamaica shows the core has continued to become better defined over the last six hours. A potentially catastrophic situation unfolding for Jamaica. #Melissa
#Melissa is about to undergo rapid intensification (RI). And I anticipate it will be quite explosive. A classic cyan ring on 37 GHz imagery from this GMI overpass at 1447 UTC.
Two tropical cyclones churning in the western Atlantic. Here in FL, it’s business as usual. The power of modern meteorology.
This is one of the best satellite signatures I have ever seen in the SW Atlantic (non-Gulf/Caribbean). #Humberto is up there with storms like Andrew, Dorian, and Irma in my eyes.
Ugh, I just realized a typo in my original post. This should read 45 kt intensification in the previous 12 h and 55 kt in the previous 18 h. Nevertheless, extreme RI is still ongoing.
Update: Hurricane #Humberto has intensified 55 kt in the last 12 h… extreme RI ongoing. Anomalous upshear convection is again a tell for subsequent RI. Thankfully the storm is well away from land for now.
One hypothesis is that because you usually have some degree of downshear convection in all TCs, anomalous upshear convection results in a greater projection of diabatic heating onto the azimuthal mean. This can aid evacuation of mass out of the boundary layer and intensify the primary circulation.
Anomalous upshear convection is often associated with rapid intensification in hurricanes. Here is a schematic from my dissertation and a recent snapshot of Hurricane Humberto, which is experiencing westerly shear. Although Humberto is fairly compact, its structure suggests RI is ongoing.
With anomalously weak trade winds, the eastern Main Development Region of the Atlantic has rapidly warmed over the last two weeks. Models suggest this flow pattern should largely continue, favoring additional warming.
As of 6am CST 18 June #Erick is now a #hurricane & is likely starting rapid intensification, #RI, as a central dense overcast, #CDO, forms over the center.
Hurricane warnings in effect for coastal #Mexico from Acapulco to Puerto Angel & Erick forecast to be near major hurricane at landfall.
The 2026 budget passback plan calls for eliminating NOAA Research, the scientific backbone that keeps weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings accurate and effective. This would have disastrous consequences.
Read the AMS statement, in partnership w/ @nwas.org: bit.ly/4cz2RtC
Cyclone Errol is an extremely powerful storm. IR brightness temps in the eye are quite warm for a core that small. Reminds me of Milton in the Atlantic last year. And for my northern hemisphere friends, I have rotated the IR pattern to be consistent with a positive Coriolis value in the 2nd image.
68,845,865.
That's how many individuals in the United States speak a language other than English at home.
Everyone deserves a chance to stay safe during disasters, and I will never stop advocating for that. Thinking of all the communities that are going to be affected by this change.
Thank you to UAH for the opportunity and hospitality during my visit. I had a great time talking about hurricanes and machine learning with the folks there. And a special thanks to @tcblers.bsky.social for the invitation and a great time in Huntsville!
Here's my annual blog post about the NOAA National Hurricane Center's updated "cone of uncertainty". Hopefully there are some tidbits in there that are new to you! Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1 and ends November 30.
bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2025/03/2025...
Probationary employees across @NOAA and the @NWS are being terminated today, including those in mission-essential roles.
My own wife is among them, essential to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center's 24/7 critical mission of seismic monitoring and tsunami prediction to protect the public.
Uh oh. Zelia is explosively intensifying at this point. The enclosed pink ring in 36 GHz imagery is typically a signal only seen in extremely intense TCs or those about to be extremely intense.
