A note to Santa asking for cash transfers

incredible work indevelopmentmag.com/money-for-no...

Policy implication: facilitating international migration should be in every developing country's toolkit.

Nearly all developing countries already have government agencies for overseas employment. Our evidence says this is the right call: it's not hollowing out, it's building up.

Sorry, I was assuming these would be traditional infrastructure financing structures, ie guaranteed by state.

Choosing to avoid that debt stack might be more selection effects on mgmt quality -> boondoggle.

I trust you would be high quality and could work within a PPP.

You could easily get banks to provide you 3x leverage (probably 10x leverage if you really make good case)

I bring this up because I've read a lot (perhaps too much) about AI. It's predominantly written by tech-adjacent people and none of it hit as hard as this play.

It is a disservice to the world that artists polarized against AI and aren't doing nuanced takes like this.

This is fantastic.

I am begging you to watch Marjorie Prime and do similar justice to the underlying themes because it perfectly captures the tension between AI slop and AI utility. I'll attempt to leave other themes for you to discover.

Last call for applications. Deadline is on March 15.

Issuance of F-1 student visas by the United States, to all countries, monthly through August 2025 (latest available).

The red line shows the start of the current US Administration.

Shutting out the world's talented young people will impoverish the future of every Conservative and Liberal American.

Great Violet Buxton-Walsh (cc @ifpsanti.bsky.social) post on gov't data. I suspect this holds for all organizational knowledge & historical accidents that underlie modern data artifacts.

High ROI? Build the .md files/skills via qualitative interviews of members deep in the bureaucracy.

Linking Labor Mobility and Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET) In the context of shrinking global aid budgets and persistent skills shortages in low-, middle-, and high-income countries, linking labor mobility and technical and vocational education and training (...

Mobility "can increase TVET placement rates, improve institutional quality, attract investment, and expand opportunities for disadvantaged groups, including refugees."

www.cgdev.org/publication/...

Malengo Scholar Profiles: Jasmin Tendo Mpoza, Uganda–Germany University Scholar YouTube video by Malengo Inc.

Introducing the world to our amazing Malengo students, vol. 5:

Please meet Jasmin Tendo Mpoza, who is a Malengo Uganda–University Scholar studying International Business at Hochschule Anhalt, Germany.

youtu.be/PPGo3tYfLBI

This aged well

I can't promise anything, but that is a good idea!

I am proud to see this happening.

Even without these short-term effects, the model stands on its long-term economic ideals. But to see that the process itself—despite the hard work and isolation—is generating immediate hope and well-being?

That is fantastic.

We often think of poverty alleviation in terms of consumption. (The results we see are strong there with nearly 2 doublings in PPP-adjusted consumption)

Yet, this level of consumption is still quite low for Germany even with so much work. Something else could be contributing.

To speculate:

Is this result suggesting that opportunity and agency are massive drivers of well-being on their own?

While interacting with scholars, they repeatedly come back to the opportunity that is granted to them and how much they value it.

Our treatment group undertook a massive challenge:

They moved to a new country with zero social connections. They are learning a new language, integrating into a new culture, working and studying simultaneously.

I recognize this is hard, I've never been that stressed!

I'm excited, the RCT suggests Malengo increases psychological well‑being by about 0.36 standard deviations. As a reference point, this is similar in magnitude to the improvements after vision-restoring cataract surgery.

This is not obvious a priori!

Great news on @malengo.org: With a new large investment from The Shapiro Foundation (theshapirofoundation.org), we'll be able to bring several hundred vocational training and university students from Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda to Europe over the coming years!

More here: malengo.org/malengo-secu...

Tariffs go to near 0? Yes

50% confidence intervals

China 45 to 100 years
EU 4 to 16 years
Canada 1 month to 4 years

As we know now, with a near collapse of many INGOs occurring.

This was actually massively effective and very smart systems level thinking.

It could be better, but I was *almost always* impressed when I interacted with professionals.

Honestly, I'm pretty surly.

The Backbone of Impact: How USAID and Global Institutions Empower Top Charities A Case Study In Philanthropy's Role in Global Health and Why Waivers Aren't Working

Pretty obviously have to shill.

It wasn't clear to me how much NGOs were extensions of aid organizations. Using them for the less "impact" part. Hence, gaining impact per unit.

While gov't does the opposite.

So you get "ineffective" infrastructure.

open.substack.com/pub/flavorye...

As of Feb 9, less than 10% of PEPFAR contractors surveyed had restarted any activities. It's not their fault: They need to get explicit program-level waivers and that's a bottleneck. Plus, even with a waiver, USG owes them heaps of $ and they have no cash.

It would be ideal if everyone thought of democracy mostly as rules/process PLUS a people-centered collective pursuit of material outcomes; as opposed to democracy as just rules and process.

The latter model leads people to think they can fact check their way out of autocracy.

Quick 🧵 on American aid spending, to accompany my new Substack (link below)

US aid obligations have remained remarkably steady in real terms since WWII, rarely exiting a band of $20-60 billion in 2023 dollars. Surprisingly, the year with the most aid obligations was... 1948!

Where are my newsmax readers at?

www.newsmax.com/politics/grp...

Despite calls for reform, USAID’s ability to mobilize vast resources and elite expertise remains essential. When failure isn’t an option, only large‑scale, coordinated action can meet the complex challenges of global development.

Scaling pilot projects into nationwide programs is notoriously difficult—short-term funding and fragmented efforts often stall progress. USAID’s sustained, multi-year commitment is key to turning promising ideas into lasting solutions.