Lufthansa has cancelled 20.000 flights. Jet fuel price has basically doubled. And still, Lufthansa for example is just 17% down from before war prices. IAG is just 13%. Those are garden variety corrections, not 20k flights cancelled (and counting) corrections. The market dissonance surprises me.

It's not an exaggeration to say that the markets were sure of a Iran deal, or something similar, for tomorrow. I don't think they have yet digested the fact that there won't be one tomorrow, and very likely not in some time, bar some big backpedaling from any of the sides.

Cannot agree, UK Office is genius, obviously, but too cringey. US Office is genius too, and a more polished product.

I mean the whole setup, including Outlook and Exchange. A real drop-in Enterprise substitute where you can replace your Office setup or part of it without issues. That would be a game changer, and LibreOffice is nowhere near that.

Based on today's developments, it seems like Iran will use time to their advantage, pressing on the price of oil till the US manages to find a social media narrative to explain all their concessions. With an open ceasefire, just an imperfect blockade won't hurt them enough to change tack.

I wonder how long till somebody uses AI to make a good enough Office clone, and what would that mean for Microsoft.

As soon as I decide that the market is right, there is a turnaround. Apparently Iran wants to see the US blink before it even talks to them. No unblocking the Iran ports when Iran unblocked the Hormuz was certainly a bad move, and now Iran thinks that they cannot give an inch in any way.

I hate to admit it, but the market may be right, and a Iran deal may be at hand. The last long tweets of Mr. Trump indicate that the JCPOA is now the baseline deal. The jamboree of diminished expectations goes and goes. Good part is that Iran could accept something like that. They did without a war.

Today has become a typical bull market day with slow movements, basically upwards. Markets keep discounting that all this war thing will end soon, and anyway it doesn't really matter to earnings. Tomorrow ends the ceasefire, next day deal meeting. Tomorrow's tweets will be about extending ceasefire.

The hopeful tweets came on the opening session, like clockwork, and stocks rose. The Russell got positive, I kid you not. Oil dropped a whole buck, it's sale season!

Oil dissonance keeps. Either the IEA and the IMF are full of scaremongers, or the oil price makes no sense. Waiting will tell us.

Stocks recovered a bit on expectations of early-morning hope-filled tweets. Is now back a bit as said expectations are dashed. Doesn't matter, they are replaced by before-opening hope-filled tweets. If that fails, the market will expect after-opening hope-filled tweets. They won't be disappointed.

Now the US is sending a delegation to negotiate, and Iran is imposing conditions for even meeting them. Again Iran seems to have the stronger hand, while the US is very intent in getting to a deal of any kind. Underneath, despite propaganda, positions seem far apart in many things, not just nuclear.

Seeing it from the outside, and lacking perhaps important information, it looks like the US is playing the weaker hand against Iran. The US sought the ceasefire on condition (remember?) of the Hormuz strait opening. The strait didn't open but US kept the ceasefire. Weak hand.

Markets keep in an optimistic framework. Reaction to bad headlines is muted, reaction to good or even neutral ones is faster and stronger. The last rebound has left everybody wondering if macro really has a meaning in investment. And nobody wants to sell just to get blindsided by another up bout.

Euro stocks down, but frankly, not so much. Sectors in war structure, with oil very green, but the size of the movement not even correcting the Friday's euphoria. US futures even more sanguine. Even oil considers that things are not so bad. Why they do is anybody's guess, perhaps inside information?

BofA's Mr. Hartnett bets that the Fed will ease more than currently discounted by the markets. He is of course right. The Fed is already accepting higher-than-2% inflation. It has eased with inflation over it, and will do it again. It only needs some job weakness. All roads lead to higher inflation.

If you want some lighter comedy into that roller coaster, there is the planned confirmation hearing for Kevin Warsh as next Fed chair. Doesn't look like the GOP has got the needed votes, so why go ahead with the hearing is anybody's guess.

The fact of the US announcing a new meeting with Iran, without having previously it agreed with Iran tells us how next week will go. A week of apocalyptic threats, last-minute backpedaling, delayed ultimatums, extended ceasefires, openings and closings of the Hormuz... so exactly like last week.

You can make a good relationship between US debt and US market value. As long as one grows, the other one will too. Of course if you are a foreign investor and the dollar drops more than the market rises, you are cooked. Dollar now back down to square one before war.

So, the reason is always the same: Inflation inflates. It inflates gas, house prices, health insurance, and yes, stocks too. Tax breaks are basically money printing, printed money has to end up somewhere, and stocks are a good place for people that doesn't need it to buy groceries, for example.

A likely reason was the US tax returns hitting taxpayers, which end up in part in the market. Some reasoning was made when gas hit $4, that the extra cost of that outdid the tax returns, but things don't quite work that way. Most refunds go to people less proportionally affected by the gas rise.

Looking for explanations for the brutal rebound of the SP, everybody points to the CTA's, but that's just the first derivative, as CTAs are automatic. Why did the CTA levels get triggered? In fact, all the previous downside felt too cushioned, with measured days down, no panic.

Up to now, my disappoint-meter is being right in its forecast. There is clear risk of Monday disappointment if the Hormuz keeps being muzzled. However, the likelihood of another taco serving at the last hour, with the US unblocking the Iranian vessels, is high. So much posturing that is tiresome.

My disappointmeter is pointing to "very high" chances of weekend disappointment, basically because the expectations are so huge. Anything less than a 120 ships a day crossing the strait without hindrance would be a less-than-expected outcome, at least considering the price that oil is marking today.

At some moment, this being Friday and all, investors will start wondering what will happen if Israel bombs something during the weekend, and Iran closes the strait again. I know, unlikely, but possible, and do you want to be so long into that? In the last hour of the DAX there was something of this.

SP getting stratospheric. At these heights, the air gets scarce. It's worth it to remember that the top leg of the JP Morgan collar is at 6865, far, far below current levels. It's still a long time till end of second quarter, and they might be right still.

It's the moment for reminding that, first, all is temporary, and also, that oil prices will keep tense for quite a long time, even if it becomes permanent. Oil companies will be a clear buy if they ever get near their pre-war prices, in the next couple of sessiones.

Following the spreads idea, well, underweighting Russell will now be a bad idea probably. Perhaps underweighing SP against DAX could be better, as Euro stocks still far from the ATH from before the war, and probably more affected by it, and so by it end, if in fact it ends.

Hormuz is officially open. Just till Wednesday, but be sure the ceasefire will be extended if needed. It's a confusing situation to say the least, but for the moment is time for Euphoria. Just don't be too long entering the weekend, it's a volatile time.

Last three days, the SP has been up, and the VIX too. That's quite uncommon, as upside breeds quiet and peace of mind. Not this upside, which everybody thinks it's too much too soon, but the flow of money keeps proving everybody wrong. So they buy grudgingly, but cover themselves, rising the VIX.