OK but the Satan thing would explain all the ofhers

And Hegseth, who probably read “airlift thousands of troops” for “weeks on the ground” surrounded by a million IRGC and Basij forces and said “cool plan now let’s go do some reps.”

#polisky the absolute decimation of the social sciences cc @professormusgrave.bsky.social @mcopelov.bsky.social

On the bright side, we are about to show China why you shouldn’t launch invasions in a contested maritime environment

Basically the shifting goals means Iran won, and I don’t say this flippantly

China battery trio gain $70bn as Iran war sparks ‘paradigm shift’ Share price rises for clean energy companies outstrip oil majors as investors bet on switch to renewables

Lots of speculation rn (such as this FT article) on what war in the Middle East means for the future of oil.

What do we know about the conditions under which we reach tipping points in clean energy adoption?

Political science can tell us a lot! 🧵

Oh.

So they want Obama’s nuclear deal minus Obama’s signature.

Got it.

TBH, if you are gonna teleport, a Waffle House is not a bad choice.

He will stop sending other people to fight his wars when he feels it in his bone spurs.

Actually Majtaba Khamenei is now the one with the Punisher backstory.

The short version:

L’etat c’est moi.

They’re telling me a great empire will be destroyed if I attack Persia. Even the oracles who don’t like me very much, very nasty, they all said to me, “Sir, it’s one of the great empires, and it’ll be destroyed. And all because you attacked Persia.” That’s what they’re telling me.

It will work for Trump about as well as it did for Melenchon.

Models of Crisis Decision Making and the 1990–91 Gulf War The 1991 Persian Gulf War is a “most likely” case for several crisis decision-making models. It commanded presidential attention, arose when bureaucrats were fighting over post-Cold War budgets, an...

Jon Monten and I attribute the US neglect of mine clearing in the 1991 Gulf War to the organizational culture of the US Navy (Army neglected mine clearing too):

www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...

The is the federal government telling news stations to provide favorable coverage of the war or their licenses will be pulled.

A truly extraordinary moment.

We aren't on the verge of a totalitarian takeover. WE ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF IT.

Act like it.

If we made the green energy transition this war would be unthinkable and these authoritarians wouldn’t be in power — not in the US, not in Iran, not in Saudi Arabia, not in Russia. Hydrocarbons are killing our freedom and just plain killing us.

The Hormuz Minefield In the strait, Iran holds the advantage—and America has no good options.

My latest on the Iranian threat to the Strait of Hormuz in @foreignaffairs.com
www.foreignaffairs.com/iran/hormuz-...

Reading Schelling in Tehran: 1 Technically, in Doha

My class was scheduled to read Thomas Schelling this month in our course on Nuclear Weapons and World Politics. It turned out to be a current affairs course. Here's part 1 of my series on reading Schelling in this crisis.

open.substack.com/pub/musgrave...

The United States Could Lose the Gulf Iran’s attacks on its neighbors are a reminder that the United States cannot protect them.

“Gulf states can no longer believe the United States can or will protect them from existential threats. And even as they are forced to openly cooperate with Israel in its war, they increasingly view it as a threat.” My new piece on the Gulf and the Iran war.

foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/05/i...

The train has left the station: Agentic AI and the future of social science research | Brookings A new era of agentic AI agents has begun. What does it mean for social scientists? Solomon Messing and Joshua Tucker discuss.

Excellent piece on the profound changes that the AI tsunami is bringing to social science research:

www.brookings.edu/articles/the...

OK, just going to sit with my maul, stroke my beard, and watch the trolls on this one.

This is especially worrisome at a time when drones guided by AI or fiber optic cables cannot be jammed and are readily available.

Mentally unstable lone assassins have killed or come close to killing US presidents. Foreign governments are far more capable of this if they choose to do so.

History Undusted: If World War I were a Bar Fight History can be confusing sometimes, especially if it’s distant – beyond our own experience. Who’s who, who did what, and what the consequences were can all seem a bit vague. The analogy…

In international relations theory we call this chain-ganging,” ie, getting pulled into an ally’s war as if chained together at the ankle. As others have pointed out, there was a large element of this in WWI. See here:

www.jstor.org/stable/2538910

And here:

stephaniehuesler.com/2019/12/15/h...

An Unpopular, Doomed, Bloody War People will die and nothing will be accomplished

Very good rapid reaction by @professormusgrave.bsky.social

One caveat: we don't really know whether a country like Iran is a paper tiger until it's tested in war. Maybe it will collapse. Still would be bad.

musgrave.substack.com/p/an-unpopul...

Trump Calls for Overthrow of Iran’s Government

These are maximalist aims. A country is at its most dangerous backed into a corner facing an existential threat, which Trump appears to have unleashed. What is the off-ramp from the escalation ladder here? 2/ www.nytimes.com/2026/02/28/w...

Disappointed and saddened by DOD decision to end decades of mutually beneficial collaboration between our nation's military officers & our civilian universities and think tanks. A loss for both communities with negative long-term implications for national security and civil-military relations.

Pahlavi has been in exile in the US and does not have an insider’s feel for the opposition in Iran, nor the legitimacy of having shared their suffering.

He would also face divisions among Iran’s repressed ethnic groups, the Azeris and the Kurds.

The murder of thousands by regime forces only deepened the simmering fury of Iranian citizens, but even with US bombing only the government forces have weapons and training.

Jack Goldstone’s research is also relevant here: elite defection is a nearly necessary condition for successful revolution.

For all the economic troubles Iran has had, even after humiliation by the US and Israel and a massive public uprising, there was no elite defection.

Both dilemmas are clearly evident in Iran:

—the IRGC is huge, well-armed, and recently showed its willingness to kill thousands to keep its privileges

—Iranians despise their government but any leader beholden to the US and Israel would also lack legitimacy