wout van aert wins roubaix sihfhdshfdsf

I LOVE THIS BEAUTIFUL SPORT WOUT VAN AERT

Woutje ❤️

"final_draft_😂😂😂.docx"

„Genderverbot“ in Hessen: Das ist keine Realpolitik, das ist ideologischer Wahn In Hessen wird eine Schule gezwungen, ihren Instagram-Account von Sonderzeichen zu säubern. Das „Genderverbot“ wird endgültig absurd. Ein Kommentar.

„Das ist kleinliche Pedanterie, man möchte fast sagen: Ideologischer Wahn.“ Mein FR-Kommentar zu den Absurditäten des hessischen „Genderverbots“. (hanvoi) www.fr.de/rhein-main/l...

Together with @inert-emergence.bsky.social, and the bluesky-less Sascha Huber and Fabio Best

Screenshot of the abstract of the paper, which reads: Opposition parties are central actors in accounts of democracies (e.g. Dahl 1966). Prior research addressed issues such as institutional factors to gauge the power wielded by opposition parties, and how they affect opposition parties’ choices for engaging in conflictual behaviour vis-à-vis the government or opting for cooperative approaches. However, scant attention has been devoted to understanding citizens’ views of such opposition party behaviour. We aim to fill this gap by examining how opposition parties’ choices of conflict or cooperation with the government affect citizens’ evaluations of both opposition and government parties. Our study centres on the case of Germany, where the considerable institutional power vested in opposition parties provides a framework for genuine choice between cooperation and conflict. We use data from four large-scale survey experiments in which we systematically manipulated opposition party behaviour. These experiments were conducted between 2020 and 2022, allowing us to study the effects of opposition party behaviour in different contexts, including cases of crisis, such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and in the realm of more everyday politics. Although mixed, the results suggest that cooperative opposition party behaviour provides a promising, often overlooked avenue for opposition parties to attract citizens.

New paper in @prxjournal.bsky.social

We conducted 4 experiments in Germany to examine how voters respond when opposition parties choose conflict or cooperation with the government.

Findings: Cooperation tends to win more support

🔗 doi.org/10.1080/2474...

#polisky

That damn smile meme with Wout smiling as he picked up Yates

Be still my beating heart!
#giro #thatdamnedsmile

What a stage. I can’t remember anything like this. What a performance by Wout 👑 #giro

Deutscher wird‘s nicht mehr heute

Gone, but not forgotten? The German federal election 2021 and the effect of an incumbent who did not run The German federal election 2021 was remarkable partly because the incumbent chancellor Angela Merkel, albeit still popular, was not running for re-el…

ON LEADERSHIP AND CAMPAIGN EFFECTS

“Gone, but not forgotten? The German federal election 2021 and the effect of an incumbent who did not run”, by @inert-emergence.bsky.social, Fabio Best, Sascha Huber, and @robertwelz.bsky.social
www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Immer wieder wichtig daran zu erinnern, dass die AfD zwar viel (ostdeutsche) Landmasse blau einfärben kann, dahinter aber aufgrund der Bevölkerungsdichte viel weniger Menschen stehen als suggeriert wird - und vor allem keine echten 50%+x Mehrheiten, sondern um die 30%. www.dvpw.de/blog/die-mac...

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Koalitionen mit der AfD? Determinanten der Präferenzbildung in Ost- und Westdeutschland vor der Bundestagswahl 2021 - Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft The influence of coalition preferences on individual voting behaviour has been a substantial part of political science studies. But still, research on the formation of coalition preferences is in its ...

📢 Neue Publikation: "Koalitionen mit der AfD? Determinanten der Präferenzbildung in Ost- und Westdeutschland vor der Bundestagswahl 2021" in Zeitschrift für Vergleichende Politikwissenschaft
#AfD #CDU #FDP #CSU #Ostdeutschland #Westdeutschland #Koalitionspräferenzen
link.springer.com/article/10.1...

Mischke: (14:40) „Jedenfalls muss ich elf Jahre nach erscheinen immer noch über dieses Buch reden, das haben nicht viele Autoren, die sich nach elf Jahren immer noch rechtfertigen müssen für ihr Buch. Adolf Hitler vielleicht, der müsste sich für "Mein Kampf" glaub ich immer noch rechtfertigen, wenn er noch leben würde." Primo: "Ja definitiv das wär mal spannend wenn er das tun würde."

Thilo Mischke, 2021, im Gespräch mit der Journalistin Nadine Primo. Niemand hat’s so schwer wie Thilo, außer *checks notes*… „Adolf Hitler vielleicht“?!

🤯 pictures in connections! I was so excited that I had to do the first group before I could take the screenshot @nytimes.com

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Create Tidy Data Frames of Marginal Effects for ggplot from Model Outputs Compute marginal effects and adjusted predictions from statistical models and returns the result as tidy data frames. These data frames are ready to use with the ggplot2-package. Effects and predictio...

{ggeffects} version 2.0.0 is out now! Read more about this #rstats package at strengejacke.github.io/ggeffects

What does {ggeffects} do? The 📦 helps you to understand (complex) models and results by calculating and plotting *estimated marginal means* or more generally, *adjusted predictions*. 🧵

Mittelschwere Krise in meinem intuitiven Verständnis der Pyramiden. Bei der FDP ist die Spitze der erste Schritt und das Fundament der letzte. So rum baut man doch keine Pyramide?

A letter on Philosophy & Public Affairs letterhead that reads: November 12, 1973 Professor Robert Nozick Department of Philosophy Emerson Hall Harvard University Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138 Dear Professor Nozick, I have been meaning to send you a note ever since you did not telephone the second time last week just to say that I decided after all to drop the offending post-apostrophes from the possessive of Rawls. This is, as I told you, according to the Chicago Manual of Style an honor due only to Moses and Jesus, but with us aesthetic considerations won out. The decision puts us somewhat in a class by ourselves -- I note that in Brian Barry's new book he and Oxford Press write Rawls's -- but I don't mind being different. I trust that you will not. sincerely， Margot Cutter

November 12, 1973 --- The day Philosophy & Public Affairs started treating Rawls like Jesus.

There is rStrava?! 🧡 Splendid

I deleted nearly 90,000 tweets last night using this excellent free package. So long X. github.com/lucahammer/t...

What feeds do you have pinned that you think I am missing out on?

Here are mine:

Polisky, we were able to go open access with our article "Gone, but not forgotten? The German federal election 2021 and the effect of an incumbent who did not run". Download it as often as you like - and maybe cite it here and there 😉

www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

Wieso steht der Entschluss, u.a. an Unis Sprache festzuschreiben (sic!) unter Punkt 10 „Freiheit“? Und wie spät wurde das alles verfasst, dass das direkt hinter mündigen Bürger*innen und „Anreize statt Verbote“ und „Beteiligung statt Bevormundung“ steht?

Anyone with best practices for data analysis (mostly R) on an ipad?
Some of our students no longer have laptops. PC labs (need to be on site) and remote desktop (usability on the tablet and connectivity) work (but rather suboptimally).
Any experience with posit cloud in class maybe?

Polisky! Fabio Best, Sascha Huber, @robertwelz.bsky.social and I have a thing in Electoral Studies. It's called "Gone, but not forgotten? The German federal election 2021 and the effect of an incumbent who did not run". Go get it for free until Dec 7:
authors.elsevier.com/a/1hxskxRaZg...

In our new article, we find:

- Retiring incumbents (Merkel in 2021) can still play a role for vote intentions

- This effect 'washes off' over the course of a campaign

- Some of their popularity may 'rub off' on their successors if they manage to align themselves (which Laschet didn't)

So uhh … we’re obviously too punk-biased: I found out the other day that there is a country song with the same title. *Michael Scott cringe gif*

Zwei der wichtigsten Gegensätze bei den Wahlen in Hessen und Bayern: Stadt-Land und Jung-Alt. Wie @indubioproreto.bsky.social und ich in einer jetzt erschienenen Studie zeigen, sind diese Gegensätze eng verbunden: Der sprichwörtliche Stadt-Land-Graben trennt vor allem die Jungen 1/8