...after saying that the Fed lost its credibility by being behind the curve on inflation

The propsective Fed Chair refuses to say whether cutting interest rates 250bps would stimulate the economy and boost inflation

He later says: "I'm afraid Kevin will have to have an office next to me in the White House, because that building is not going to be done."

Kernen asks Trump if he'd drop the investigation of Powell in order to get Kevin Warsh seated on the Fed. Trump responds by ranting and raving about the Fed building renovation project and suggests Powell is taking a cut of proceeds.

Mixed signals from high frequency labor market indicators with ADP weekly private payrolls surging in March but Indeed job postings moving lower. Initial claims for unemployment insurance remain low & continuing claims have moved lower. On balance it suggests resilience/stability

IRIB SAID NO IRANIAN DELEGATION, PRIMARY OR SECONDARY, HAD TRAVELED TO ISLAMABAD AND THAT REPORTS ABOUT THE DEPARTURE OF IRANIAN OFFICIALS, INCLUDING CLAIMS ABOUT MEETING TIMES, WERE NOT ACCURATE.

Brussels pushes remote working to ease energy crisis European Commission also recommends heat pumps and public transport subsidies

The European Commission will encourage remote working and public transport subsidies to cut fossil fuel use, as countries grapple with the energy price shock from the war in the Middle East.

www.ft.com/content/bbc9...

Exclusive | U.A.E. Asks U.S. About a Wartime Financial Lifeline Emirati officials have spoken with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about accessing dollars if the Middle East conflict drags on.

UAE wants swap lines

“it was President Trump’s decision to attack Iran that entangled their country in a destructive conflict…if the U.A.E. runs short of dollars, it may be forced to use Chinese yuan or other countries’ currencies for oil sales and other transactions”

www.wsj.com/world/middle...

Well labor scarcity only results if supply is falling faster than demand which we haven’t really seen but fully agree the idea of population crisis is just bad framing

bsky.app/profile/jc-e...

San Antonio Spurs on Instagram: "Kicking off the playoffs in 210 style 🎉 @heb | @ledger" 19K likes, 110 comments - spurs on April 19, 2026: "Kicking off the playoffs in 210 style 🎉 @heb | @ledger".

A hype parade led by the coyote in a giant HEB grocery cart?? Doesn’t get much better than that #GoSpursGo

www.instagram.com/reel/DXUonv7...

Only US Votes Against Women’s Rights Document At UN Commission - Health Policy Watch President of the UN General Assembly Annalena Baerbock told the opening of CSW that the backlash against women's rights "feels as though we are forced to

For the first time in decades, consensus broke at the UN Commission on the Status of Women. The United States cast the lone “no” vote on a document aimed at improving justice systems for women and girls worldwide. Misogyny is the official policy of the US under Trump.

Not the most dangerous element in the house of cards, but the fact the US govt is no longer a reliable source can break, or at least add layers of verification costs to AI. What company can sign off on a program that mines misinformation?

I regret to conclude that nothing changed today--the Strait of Hormuz is still closed

No ships are moving through the Strait of Hormuz and as I understand Iran is still requiring permission (+ probably tolls) from the IRGC and the US bloackade is still in place. Was this just a big market manipulation? Has there been any real progress?

Nice work!

The Decades-Old Legal Question at the Heart of the Fed Chair Showdown The law doesn’t clearly say what happens when the chair’s term expires without a confirmed successor. The White House and the Fed have very different answers.

If no chair is confirmed by May 15, who leads the Fed?

The Fed and the White House seem to have very different answers—a suddenly live dispute after Trump’s latest threat to fire Powell.

It’s a question that a 28-year-old John Roberts weighed in on. www.wsj.com/economy/cent...

Tillis, on the social media site that shall not be named, posts a picture of the Three Stooges to represent Pirro's office

Trump says he will fire Powell if he does not resign from the Fed and that he is not planning to drop the probe into the central bank's renovations (Prosecutors made a surprise visit there on Tuesday)

The investigation is holding up Warsh's chair confirmation and raising the odds that Powell stays

“After speaking with construction workers, two of Pirro’s deputies were advised they couldn’t access the site without preclearance, and they were given the contact information for the Fed’s legal staff”

🤡🤡🤡

www.wsj.com/us-news/law/...

We just can’t know at this stage, I hope you’re right but Warsh has done a 180 on many things so there is not a lot of things I am confident he believes in

I think the vibecession (to the extent it mildly holds up under @peark.es analysis with the conference board) relates to expectations that living standards won’t continue improving. That is a measured phenomenon that means a given standard of living “feels” worse

He is complaining that the reserve bank presidents are not selected via a democratic process (cause you know how much they love democracy). We know Trump wants a majority on the FRB so they can fire bank presidents, slash the staff, neutralize the system and make it more beholden to Trump

I respect this effort but I find it unconvincing. We've *seen* a major price level shock in the US before, during the 1970s. To test what that did to sentiment, we can compare Conference Board consumer confidence data to unemployment/inflation. The result gives a respectable model of confidence. 1/3

Economists at the Dallas Fed try to model the effects on PCE inflation of a one-, two-, or three-quarter disruption of oil shipping through Hormuz

The model projects WTI prices peaking at $110, $132, or $167 per barrel depending on the length of the closure www.dallasfed.org/~/media/docu...

maybe you two can pair up to do the same analysis with Conference Board...🙏

SENATE BANKING PANEL RECEIVES WARSH ETHICS FILING BUT QUESTIONNAIRE STILL PENDING, MUST ARRIVE THIS WEEK FOR HEARING NEXT WEEK - POLITICO

For those who haven't seen the Super Mario Galaxy Movie it's about the undeniable cosmic power of women & there are men bent on controlling women & are generally focused on petty grievance & destruction but there are other men who respect women & can form powerful alliances that can save the world

The 16th ICE detention death just occurred at the Winn facility in Louisiana. The pattern I just wrote about continues: 1 death every six days.

austinkocher.substack.com/p/ice-report...