Thanks
Posts by Ryan Evans
This
Weekend listen: @warontherocks.bsky.social update on the war in Ukraine with @michaelkofman.bsky.social & @ryanevans.bsky.social. An invaluable resource since Russia launched its invasion over four years ago. This week: grey zones, Wagnerization, and drones. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/w...
War will forgive many sins, but not the confusion of aims and desired outcomes. The war on Iran follows an American tradition of striking with precision in the absence of strategy. But as with all these days, it's got that extra...je ne sais quoi
warontherocks.com/tactical-suc...
The number of snarky comments ("hear about WWII? What about Ukraine") from people who clearly haven't read the article, which discusses these cases explicitly, is very on brand for this website
Russia needs to be punished for helping Iran target American forces. Here's how. warontherocks.com/2026/03/puni...
Getting death threats *over this* is absolutely insane
Nothing. Zip
My X account has been suspended without explanation for most of the day now. No response from support. Feels quite intentional given the fracas over the weekend
No we are not. We handed TNSR over to Austin fully over a year ago
Y'all are missing a real fun weekend on Xitter
"When a great power justifies entry into a conflict as unavoidable because an ally is acting, control over escalation and, indeed, foreign policy writ large has shifted."
#Israel #IsraelIranWar #IranWar
warontherocks.com/2026/03/the-...
And 2026, unlike 2003, is a major election year with the mid-terms fast approaching. Only 27 percent of Americans supported war on Iran on the eve of war (Reuters/Ipsos).
What explains this? I want your views
It is a curious way to introduce a war to the American public, the troops fighting it today, and the troops who might be fighting it in weeks, months, or even years.
The Trump administration's approach couldn't be more different: Instead of a sustained public argument, we have seen brief statements, rah-rah television appearances, as well as shifting rationales and war aims.
But care was taken to bring the American public along, as befits our nation's customs and traditions. And it delivered results: 72 percent of Americans supported the invasion of Iraq on the eve of war (Gallup).
Even still, the war was a disaster (the region shattered, Iraqi lives destroyed with hundreds of thousands or more killed, Iran empowered, over 4400 US troops killed & almost 32k wounded, up to $3 trillion spent by the US...yes trillion that's not a typo).
and then dispatched Colin Powell to the Security Council with a carefully staged presentation in February 2003. Whether one believed the case or not (and 19-year-old Ryan didn't) the effort to make it was unmistakable.
In the run up to the Iraq War, the Bush administration treated persuasion like a military campaign of its own. The president went to the UN in September 2002, addressed the nation in Cincinnati the next month (five months before the balloon went up), secured a formal authorization from Congress
Less than a year ago, @jjschroden.bsky.social wrote this important article:
"A Strait Comparison: Lessons from the Dardanelles for a Strait of Hormuz Closure"
warontherocks.com/2025/06/a-st...
Definitely a blow to China's energy security, but both Russia (18 percent) and Saudi (14 percent) provide more than Iran probably did. Venezuela much less. From what an energy expert told me the other day 12 percent of Chinese oil comes from Iran and 4 percent from Venezuela.
#Khamenei seems to be dead. You can oppose the decision to go to war, as I do, and still say plainly that when a man who built a career on sanctifying repression and exporting violence finally meets his end, we have something to celebrate. Now let's see what happens next.
October 7 changed the Middle East forever. Just not how anyone expected.
INDOPACOM when asked for comment
If you log on just to torch people in public, don't be surprised when someone eventually connects the handle to the human. A pseudonym isn't a pass for being an asshole in public. If the mask of anonymity slips or gets ripped off your face, I'm not reaching for a tissue, no matter who you voted for.
The guy who wrote this appears to be Thomas Robb Anderson who went to law school after leaving the Army almost 20 years ago (logistics). He hasn't been at war college for something like two decades.
amgreatness.com/2026/02/16/m...
"...for [the Athenians] brought their confederates under bondage, by which means Athens gave occasion of the Peloponnesian War, the wound of which she died stinking, when Lacedaemon, taking the same infection from her carcass, soon followed."
James Harington, 1656
If you fear that AI will increasingly do our thinking for us and thereby deprive us of the capacity to reason, analyze, and create, the best thing you can do to forestall that in your own life is to read good books closely, often, and joyfully.