Dazed delegates to IMF spring meetings wait in suspense - OMFIF The International Monetary Fund-World Bank spring meetings, seeking to navigate their way through the shoals of a topsy-turvy global outlook.

What to expect from the IMF at next week's Spring Meetings? My scenesetter. Perplexity, hand-wringing, confusion!👇

www.omfif.org/2026/04/dele...

Global imbalances: grandeur and a ‘nothingburger’ - OMFIF Global imbalances emerged as a hot topic before and after the 2008 financial crisis when wide gaps between surplus and deficit

fyi on global imbalances www.omfif.org/2026/03/glob...

The emerging markets asset class amid the Middle East energy shock - OMFIF Tara Hariharan, managing director and head of research at NWI Management, joins Mark Sobel, chief economist and vice chair at OMFIF to discuss emerging market investing. They explore how to manage the...

Huge thanks to Tara Hariharan, NWI Management, for joining me/OMFIF for a great podcast on the impact of the Iran war on investing in emerging markets as well as the asset class more generally.👋👋

www.omfif.org/podcast/the-...

Is the IMF being too soft on its biggest shareholder? - OMFIF The US and the IMF member with the largest share of board votes, no longer seems to believe in the rules-based, multilateral economic order

Charles Collyns, former senior IMF official, examines whether the Fund's Article IV 2026 concluding mission statement on the US economy is too soft on its largest shareholder.
Please read his analysis👇 You can judge his answer! Huge thanks to Charles.

www.omfif.org/2026/03/is-t...

China's flailing growth model and challenges - OMFIF Michael Pettis, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and co-author of Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace, joins Mark Sobe...

Michael Pettis joined OMFIF/me to discuss China's growth model & challenges, the shocks it has undergone & why reliance on investment & macroeconomic policy caution will continue. 👇
Huge thanks to Michael Pettis for a fascinting and lively discussion.

www.omfif.org/podcast/chin...

Global imbalances: grandeur and a ‘nothingburger’ - OMFIF Global imbalances emerged as a hot topic before and after the 2008 financial crisis when wide gaps between surplus and deficit

Macron's G7 Presidency is emphasizing concrete commitments to tackle global imbalances and so is the Trump Admin for its G20 Presidency. We've seen this movie before.

Expect lots of pomp & a nothingburger.👇

www.omfif.org/2026/03/glob...

US Treasury Foreign Exchange Report: overhauled and improved - OMFIF The US Treasury released its latest Foreign Exchange Report (FXR) in January 2026, receiving little fanfare as the report broke no new ground.

US Treasury's late January FX Report was on its face a snooze. No Sominex needed. BUT, it was actually an improved & richer report with consequential new findings & analysis. The FX community & officialdom should pay attention. I explain why below.👇

www.omfif.org/2026/02/us-t...

No easy answers to questions facing Kevin Warsh - OMFIF Kevin Warsh understands the Federal Reserve and monetary policy, and he undoubtedly has the credentials to be the next Fed chair.

The day wouldn't be complete without yet another profound & insightful Kevin Warsh commentary. All kidding aside, Warsh's life is going to be very complicated and not just because of Trump.👇👇👇

www.omfif.org/2026/02/no-e...

Termites are slowly feasting away at the foundations of the dollar’s dominance Chomp chomp chomp

Thanks to Robin Wigglesworth and FTAV.

www.ft.com/content/0933...

This is a gratuitous and mean-spirited comment that is not worthy of a Secretary of the Treasury and the dignity of the office.

Putin is wary of facing Russia’s ruined economic future - OMFIF Most analysts rightly focus on geopolitical explanations. Humiliated by the demise of the Soviet Union and the loss of the cold war, Putin wants to restore the ‘Russian Empire’ and bolster his country...

Ending Putin's barbaric war against Ukraine will expose Russia's economic ruin. That may be another reason for Putin to keep on fighting.👇

www.omfif.org/2026/01/puti...

A thoughtful and important post.

Outlook 2026: Foreign exchange markets will be less exciting than in 2025 - OMFIF Predicting foreign exchange markets is a fool’s errand, but it has nonetheless sprouted a cottage industry with analysts even audaciously offering pinpoint numerical forecasts conjuring up the fallacy...

Predicting FX markets is a fool's errand but here are 6 2026 FX observations.

www.omfif.org/2026/01/outl...

Why Haven’t Trump’s Tariffs Had a Bigger Impact?

Congrats to Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman on their outstanding work!

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/b...

You wanna read a new (hopefully improved, thanks to very helpful comments from a bunch of very smart colleagues) version of paper called "The Political Economy of Shitcoins"? Of course you do. @tompepinsky.com & I are at your service.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

There are precious few organizations, let alone ones that exist in political milieu, that couldn't benefit from reform.

But one shouldn't give succor to those who would throw the baby out with the bathwater.

Once again, there is exactly <no> chance of the RMB rivaling or replacing either the dollar (or the euro) as the dominant international reserve currency, because Xi Jinping & 🇨🇳 policymakers are totally unwilling to reverse their macroeconomic policies to make this possible:

bsky.app/profile/mcop...

Predictions for 2026: (i) the US will outgrow everyone, but the Dollar will fall; (ii) the Euro zone will resume its slide towards deflation; (iii) EM currencies will rally as the G10 EM-ifies; and (iv) the debasement trade will continue to roar ahead...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/prediction...

Very well said!

Ukraine needs help in funding its military campaign as well as the basic costs of running a govt -- paying soldiers, pensions etc -- w/out resorting to money printing/hyperinflation.

Trump is wrong to oppose the reparation loan.

Europe will look lame, weak & pathetic if it doesn't go ahead now.

👍👍In the face of the greatest challenge to European security in decades, if Europe can't find a way to make the reparation loan, it will prove that Trump is totally right in stating that Europe is WEAK! It will put Ukraine at the mercy of the Trump Admin, a very bad outcome.

Due to unavoidable scheduling issues, this virtual session will now take place on Friday, December 12 at 10 a.m., EST Please sign up.

omfif.org/meetings/dec...

December FOMC meeting: the outlook for US monetary policy - OMFIF Donald Kohn, senior fellow in the economic studies program at the Brookings Institution, previously vice chair of the Federal Reserve, and Dennis Lockhart, who was president and CEO of the Federal Res...

To discuss the FOMC outcomes and US monetary/financial policy, Don Kohn, former Fed Vice-Chair, and Dennis Lockhart, ex-Atlanta Fed head, will join OMFIF on Thursday, December 11 at 10 am EST.

Please sign up.👇

www.omfif.org/meetings/dec...

Japanese foreign exchange policy riddled in contradictions - OMFIF The Japanese authorities are back at it. A new prime minister and finance minister are huffing and puffing about yen weakness and jawboning markets – including with threats to intervene. We’ve seen th...

Japanese MOF FX policy seems riddled in inconsistency.

Jawboning & intervention — doing something for sake of doing something, rather than problem solving for super weak yen.

www.omfif.org/2025/12/japa...

There is absolutely no defense for the way the US is treating Ukraine. The US should step up with financing and military support. But Europe should extend the reparation loan.

Given where we are the real issue is not the US.

It is whether Europe will sign off on the "reparation" loan.

Europe claims to be strong & united. Yet with its physical security challenged by Russia, it can't find the wherewithal to provide the loan due to Belgian financial concerns. Go figure.

Absolutely spot on from Jay!

Ausgezeichnet! Bravo Kanzler!

An absolutely disgraceful embarrassment. Others should indeed express objections to US and boycott if needed.

Back to the future for America’s G20 tenure - OMFIF Thoughts on a US G20 presidency under Trump in 2026

Despite the disgraceful treatment of S. Africa & G20 by USA, the moribund G20 is not dead. Ironically, the US 2026 Presidency could revive a slimmed down G20. Here's a roadmap.👇Will Trump seize it?

Thanks to Global Governance Project/G20 Research Group.

www.omfif.org/2025/11/back...