The answer is highly contingent.
1) leadership matters. Having a stupid drunken death cultist leading things complicates any questions of peer conflict.
2) while the PLA is designed to fight specifically over the Taiwan strait, we don’t know what their paper vs actual capabilities are.

Schmittians when the friend-enemy dynamic they operate under for everything is turned against them

If I’m not mistaken Israel didn’t send forces at all to Iraq or Afghanistan, while NATO countries contributed troops for no reason other than solidarity. I’ve yet to see a compelling argument for any potential benefit Israel is providing as a U.S. ally right now.

One of the most frequent causes of Charlie Kirk related cancellation was accurately representing his views, or even quoting them verbatim.
She expressed grief about Kirk's murder, and the only hateful thing in the comments came from Kirk himself.

They gotta be in triple digit plain text constitutional violations 15 months into this admin, the fact they can even put those words down shows they have literally zero shame.

I would submit that a gerrymander by politicians saying fuck the voters and one by voters saying fuck the politicians are two wholly different animals

NYT wants the Democrats to lose.

The way Virginia and California have gone about this is not even in the same realm as red states that chop up congressional districts for the sole purpose of diluting the vote of black and brown communities. Dems put expirations dates on their gerrymanders too.

WaPo says that Warsh “promised independence” and “demonstrated seriousness” during his hearing. When asked who won the 2020 election, he basically hid under the table. Promises of independence from someone so cowed and cowardly are less than meaningless.

Kids may not remember this but it was like a months long scandal that the IRS even investigated a bunch of Tea Party PACs that were shamelessly lying on their taxes and were also scamming their donors.

its absolutely incredible watching people not realize the stakes watching DOJ being weaponized against SPLC and not realizing that its basically an existential fight for the republic now

The right wing media ecosystem on X is going all in on attacking gay parents and adoption. They're pulling the worst tropes straight from the 80's.

And it was all so predictable after they felt they'd "won" on trans issues and needed the engagement.

This is, importantly, what they always were. The neocons were the aberration, the base’s lesson from the destruction of Jim Crow was that secession didn’t work. Fascist enclaves didn’t work. In round 3, they should go for the whole thing from the top down.

Most of the pundit cottage industry is based around obfuscating a very simple truth out of psychological self-protection, that one of America’s two major parties came to be the Demented Psycho Evil-Ass Rape Party from affirmative choices their voters made of their own free will because they liked it

MSM: We have to be scrupulously fair to <checks notes> the party of rapists and pedophiles by never referring to them as rapists and pedophiles.

I’m pretty worried about China beating us back to the moon considering I have almost no faith in the idea their 20-30 launch system is gonna actually be ready by 2028 for Artemis 4 but I would love to be wrong

Da raptors

It’s not a coincidence the chapters that are the most normal care about melee the least

if this polling result surprises you, i am issuing emergency guidance for you to touch grass immediately

and if you are advocating against voting straight ticket dem as a mdp convention attendee you are a fucking traitor who has lost the right to call anyone out for being Not Real Democrats, not that that is going to stop you.

Democratic backslides are not linear. There’s every reason to forecast we elect an American Starmer and our backslide resumes apace in 2032, but there’s no guarantee President Tucker will kill democracy for good. Maybe it’ll take us another cycle or two to learn the hard lessons about half measures.

“Man what the fuck is going on, I knew I shoulda stopped at 20mg”
- Sharaas

The trick is they're the same thing. The people Russia pays don't work for Russia, they just do work that's good for Russia. And nothing's better for Russia at the moment than NATO being besieged by right-wing antisemitism. They'll settle for left-wing antisemitism. Whatever makes liberalism stumble

Philly is a pretty walkable and bikable city by American standards, the entire city runs along a river with a well-maintained bike path. People taking Ubers for 20 minute trips that would also be 20 minutes if they just walked is a massive annoyance of mine.

one of the defining traits of the conservative movement is how ready they are to destroy the lives of completely random nobodies if it helps serve their lies and propaganda.

uhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

We just saw this dilemma in Hungary. Magyar was able to secure 67% of the seats with only 53% of the vote because of Orban’s constitutional reforms and what turned out to be a dummymander. Magyar isn’t donating those seats back. We can’t be afraid of wielding power or this nightmare will never end.

These guys would want Peter Magyar to disclaim the 67% of seats he got from a 53% majority due to the anti-democratic constitutional reforms Orban made and voluntarily donate those seats to Fidsez.

Disney World employs about twice as many people as the entire coal industry.

Lighting the climate on fire, ruining the environment, and making people sick so that 39,000 Manly Men can stay employed in a dying industry is so dumb.

I still like Avengers Assemble Thor most out of all his on-screen depictions. Just a massive himbo who speaks like a character straight out of the Iliad utterly unaware of how ridiculous he looks and sounds to everyone around him.

He's mad that Trump isn't *enough* of a Nazi, you monumentally useless buffoons