VAT cut for pubs and restaurants is food for thought With the hospitality industry hit hard by government policies, this might be a good tax cut to consider if the public finances were in better shape

(£) www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social

There are reasons to support a cut in VAT for hospitality, and some against, but we can't afford it anyway.

VAT cut for pubs and restaurants is food for thought With the hospitality industry hit hard by government policies, this might be a good tax cut to consider if the public finances were in better shape

My Times piece: The hospitality sector has been pushing hard for a cut in VAT to 10%, as in other countries. It makes a good point but the state of the public finances means that it looks like a long shot:

VAT cut for pubs and restaurants is food for thought

www.thetimes.com/article/a974...

VAT cut for pubs and restaurants is food for thought With the hospitality industry hit hard by government policies, this might be a good tax cut to consider if the public finances were in better shape

My Times piece: The hospitality sector has been pushing hard for a cut in VAT to 10%, as in other countries. It makes a good point but the state of the public finances means that it looks like a long shot:

VAT cut for pubs and restaurants is food for thought

www.thetimes.com/article/a974...

Thanks, Jonathan

This from @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social is a commendable exception to the astonishing parochialism of UK economic reporting.

Tthe IMF downgrading UK growth by a few tenths of a % is not the story here, it is the damage done to the global economy by Trump's madness

www.thetimes.com/article/389a...

A UK growth downgrade is the least of our worries Whatever the IMF says, the UK economy is not exceptional in its vulnerability to the Iran war. Instead we should fear the possibility of global recession

The “UK hardest-hit” meme was always a bit of a statistical aberration. If we take growth through the year, the UK’s exceptionalism disappears completely. Fourth shock of this decade and second the fault of economically damaging Trump
(£) www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
@dsmitheconomics.bsky.social

A UK growth downgrade is the least of our worries Whatever the IMF says, the UK economy is not exceptional in its vulnerability to the Iran war. Instead we should fear the possibility of global recession

My Sunday Times piece: The big story of the IMF’s latest assessment was not its minor downgrade of UK growth but its fear of what could happen to the global economy if the Iran war persists:

A UK growth downgrade is the least of our worries

www.thetimes.com/article/389a...

A UK growth downgrade is the least of our worries Whatever the IMF says, the UK economy is not exceptional in its vulnerability to the Iran war. Instead we should fear the possibility of global recession

My Sunday Times piece: The big story of the IMF’s latest assessment was not its minor downgrade of UK growth but its fear of what could happen to the global economy if the Iran war persists:

A UK growth downgrade is the least of our worries

www.thetimes.com/article/389a...

The mortgage rate sweet spot has turned sour The Iran conflict currently proves that there really is only one way to improve housing affordability on a sustained basis — and that is to build more houses

My Times piece: There has been a largely unnoticed correction in house prices, which have fallen by as much as 17% in real terms over the past four years. And there’s more to come this year:

The mortgage rate sweet spot has turned sour

www.thetimes.com/article/8a7a...

Read the piece

The mortgage rate sweet spot has turned sour The Iran conflict currently proves that there really is only one way to improve housing affordability on a sustained basis — and that is to build more houses

My Times piece: There has been a largely unnoticed correction in house prices, which have fallen by as much as 17% in real terms over the past four years. And there’s more to come this year:

The mortgage rate sweet spot has turned sour

www.thetimes.com/article/8a7a...

My Sunday Times piece: The Bank of England’s next forecast, later this month, will have inflation much higher and growth lower than its last in February. But the Bank shouldn’t rush into rate hikes:

Interest rate cuts are off the menu, but it’s too soon for rises

www.thetimes.com/article/caf1...

My Sunday Times piece: The Bank of England’s next forecast, later this month, will have inflation much higher and growth lower than its last in February. But the Bank shouldn’t rush into rate hikes:

Interest rate cuts are off the menu, but it’s too soon for rises

www.thetimes.com/article/caf1...

Spring has sprung but the gathering clouds are depressing April’s optimism is shadowed by rising costs and the tax burden is set to reach 37 per cent of GDP, close to a peacetime record

Everybody should be able to recognise that higher taxes and higher interest rates add up to a miserable picture, which is why rate increases should be avoided.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social

Today’s Times piece, written ahead of the overnight ceasefire but probably not greatly affected by it:

Spring has sprung but the gathering clouds are depressing April’s optimism is shadowed by rising costs and the tax burden is set to reach 37 per cent of GDP, close to a peacetime record

My Times piece: Interest rate cuts this year would have helped offset the impact of rising taxes, but the Trump energy shock has snuffed out hopes of lower rates, for now at least, hitting growth prospects:

Spring has sprung but the gathering clouds are depressing

www.thetimes.com/article/ae56...

Maybe an easing of inflationary pressures, alongside relatively high interest rates.

Can household savings help get us through this energy crisis? The UK economy limped to the end of last year with barely any growth, but there were hopes of an upturn — until war blew them away

My Sunday Times piece: A rundown of savings helped the UK economy get through the last energy crisis in 2022. This time is different in many ways but will there be an echo of that again?

Can household savings help get us through this energy crisis?

www.thetimes.com/article/e81e...

Can household savings help get us through this energy crisis? The UK economy limped to the end of last year with barely any growth, but there were hopes of an upturn — until war blew them away

My Sunday Times piece: A rundown of savings helped the UK economy get through the last energy crisis in 2022. This time is different in many ways but will there be an echo of that again?

Can household savings help get us through this energy crisis?

www.thetimes.com/article/e81e...

It is absolutely stupid that a major focus of policy response to the Iran War is on the planned 1p rise in fuel duty in September (watching Trevor Phillips interview Bridget Phillipson). Of no help now to anyone to abandon it. Shows how trivial our political debate has become.

When crisis strikes, why do the markets pick on the UK? The Iran war has battered gilts and pushed up government borrowing costs by more than elsewhere, even though the UK’s public finances are far from the worst

Without comfort blanket of euro membership 'the UK is also more of a market “play” than most other countries. Gilts, the vehicles through which the government borrows, are heavily traded, particularly by hedge funds.'
(£) www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social

UK gilt yields rose twice as much as German/US equivalents during recent crises, yet UK debt-to-GDP (101%) sits well below France (113%), US (121%), Japan (237%). Markets punish Britain not for objective fiscal weakness but for perceived "structural" vulnerability.

Thanks, Jonathan

When crisis strikes, why do the markets pick on the UK? The Iran war has battered gilts and pushed up government borrowing costs by more than elsewhere, even though the UK’s public finances are far from the worst

Good, sober analysis by @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social of why gilts have been more vulnerable than other markets - not debt/deficit levles, but combination of international exposure and market structure...

www.thetimes.com/article/5788...

When crisis strikes, why do the markets pick on the UK? The Iran war has battered gilts and pushed up government borrowing costs by more than elsewhere, even though the UK’s public finances are far from the worst

My Sunday Times piece, in which I explain why the markets again view the UK as particularly vulnerable to an unfolding crisis, despite efforts by successive governments to increase resilience:

When crisis strikes, why do the markets pick on the UK?

www.thetimes.com/article/5788...

When crisis strikes, why do the markets pick on the UK? The Iran war has battered gilts and pushed up government borrowing costs by more than elsewhere, even though the UK’s public finances are far from the worst

My Sunday Times piece, in which I explain why the markets again view the UK as particularly vulnerable to an unfolding crisis, despite efforts by successive governments to increase resilience:

When crisis strikes, why do the markets pick on the UK?

www.thetimes.com/article/5788...

Trump energy shock risks tipping UK into recession Data is starting to show the war in Iran is biting. Britain now faces a bout of ‘Trumpflation’ and the very real risk of recession

the before-and-after I have in mind takes us back just a month, before Donald Trump, with Israel, delivered an energy shock, which we are told by the IEA could be bigger than all previous modern energy shocks combined.
(£) www.thetimes.com/business/eco...
By @dsmitheconomics.bsky.social

Trump energy shock risks tipping UK into recession Data is starting to show the war in Iran is biting. Britain now faces a bout of ‘Trumpflation’ and the very real risk of recession

My Times piece: A tale of two economies: the UK before and after Trump’s Iran war. Signs of improvement in the first few weeks of the year risk going into sharp reverse as a result of this unnecessary energy shock:

Trump energy shock risks tipping UK into recession

www.thetimes.com/article/80b6...

UK inflation held at 3% before global energy price hit from Iran war February annual rate in line with analysts’ expectations but outlook has shifted because of effects of conflict The UK inflation rate was unchanged at 3% in February, before Donald Trump’s Iran war drove up global energy costs, threatening a renewed price jump. Official figures showed the consumer prices index (CPI) remained at 3%, in line with economists’ expectations but still well above the government’s 2% target. Continue reading...

UK inflation held at 3% before global energy price hit from Iran war

"It would be very bad for customers of the china shop if they didn't help keep order in the china shop," says the bull in said china shop.