Chart showing income growth from 2019/20 to 2024/25 and then a forecast from 2025/26 to 2030/31. Average household annual income after housing costs in 2029/30 is forecast only be £160 higher than a decade earlier, a rise of just 0.4%.

Thanks Dan, you are right of course, although our work around March's fiscal forecast shows flatlining incomes going forward too: www.jrf.org.uk/income-savin...

A chart showing how regular wages are growing after taking account of inflation. The first few months of the period starting September 2023 showed relatively slow growth, but there was consistent growth between February 2024 and September 2024, meaning wages grew by 2.4% over the year. This latter period is in contrast to the period starting September 2024, where growth has hovered around zero, ending up as an increase of just 0.3% over 17 months to February 2026.

See a resurrected JRF chart showing how disappointing real wage growth has been since September 2024, compared to the year before then. And this is before any impacts from the Iran conflict. Earnings up £1.40/wk over last 17 months, compared to £11.60/wk up in the prev 12 months.

These modelled estimates assume a lifetime in one deprivation decile. Moves between areas with different deprivation levels aren’t reflected. Notwithstanding this, gaps are very large, and the slope across deciles large too.

Life Expectancy Calculator by Age, Sex & Deprivation Calculate your remaining life expectancy and healthy years using England ONS data. See personalized estimates based on age, sex, and IMD deprivation decile.

Want to look at variation in life expectancy for someone your age/sex? Enter your details here to find out: claude.ai/public/artif.... Enter your postcode at imd2025.co.uk/map2025/ to find out what deprivation decile where you live falls into. H/T to
Chris Belfield for this.

Imagine what you can achieve in a year – the gaps we are talking about are multiple years running into decades.

A horizontal bar chart showing that man aged 45-49 in 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to live 30.7 further years made up of 14.2 years of good health and 16.5 years of poor health, compared to 39.7 further years a man that age in the least deprived tenth of areas is expected to live made up of 28.5 years of good health and 11.2 years of poor health.

Less than half of the 30.7 years would be spent in good health, compared to almost three-quarters of the 39.7 years, a gap of 14 years in terms of healthy years of life.

A horizontal bar chart showing that man aged 45-49 in 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to live 30.7 further years, 9.0 years less than the 39.7 further years a man that age in the least deprived tenth of areas is expected to live.

There are gaps at all ages. A man my age (45-49) has 30.7 years of life expectancy in the most deprived tenth of areas but 39.7 years in the least deprived tenth of areas.

A horizontal bar chart showing that a boy born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to have 49.8 years of good health, 2.3 years less than the 52.1 years a boy born in the most deprived tenth of areas in 2013-2015 is expected to have. a girl born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to have 48.2 years of good health, 4.0 years less than the 52.2 years a girl born in the most deprived tenth of areas in 2013-2015 is expected to have.

And this is getting worse over time. The same boy born in 2013 would have 2 more years of healthy life (an even worse drop of 4 years for girls).

A horizontal bar chart showing that a boy born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to have 49.8 years of good health, 19.4 years less than the 69.2 years a boy born in least deprived tenth of areas is expected to have. a girl born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to have 48.2 years of good health, 20.3 years less than the 68.5 years a girl born in least deprived tenth of areas is expected to have.

Gaps in healthy life expectancy are even bigger. That same boy will have 19.4 fewer years of good health compared to someone born in the least deprived tenth of areas (it’s 20.3 years for girls).

A horizontal bar chart showing that a girl born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to live 78.3 years, 8.1 years less than the 86.4 years a girl born in least deprived tenth of areas is expected to live

A girl born in 2023 in the most deprived tenth of areas can expect to live 8 years fewer than a girl born in the least deprived tenth of areas.

A horizontal bar chart showing that a boy born between 2022-2024 in the most deprived tenth of areas is expected to live 72.3 years, 10.4 years less than the 83.6 years a boy born in least deprived tenth of areas is expected to live

How long have you got to live and live healthily? It’s well known that people in less deprived areas live longer. Let’s look at a boy born in 2023 in the most deprived tenth of areas. They can expect to live 10 years fewer than a boy born in the least deprived tenth of areas.

Ratio of rents to earnings by region, showing London, South East, South West and East have a greater than 30% ratio of average private rents to average full-time earnings.

This is what ONS data says. Highest unaffordability in London, South East, South West and East, worsening since 2022. As paper says, private rent rises for individuals can be very spikey, going up irregularly during tenures and a lot when tenant leaves. (PS: all authors live in the South of England)

This is a precis of an excellent paper from @jelliott94.bsky.social, Rosie Worsdale and Ruby Blower at JRF. Do skim the thread or better still, read the paper.

Strong agree!

Numbers of children growing up in poverty should fall from April 2026 because the 2-child limit has ended, a much-needed improvement. Our projections show stats flatline after that, so more is needed to continue to drive child poverty downwards and reduce overall poverty. 7/7

These are the first set of results using benefits data linked to survey responses, the most significant change in methods in a generation, which JRF welcomes, but better measurement helps to accurately quantify the scale of the issue rather than improve anyone’s situation. 6/7

Household incomes rose between 2023/24 and 2024/25 after adjusting for inflation, both before and after housing costs across most of the income distribution. Exception was incomes in bottom decile after housing costs, which fell slightly and remain below 2021/22 levels. 5/7

Despite a welcome fall in the latest year of data, 3.1 million people have very low food security, meaning they went hungry because of a lack of money. This is still more than 40% higher than in 2021/22. 4/7

Looking at the picture by country and region, poverty is highest in London and lowest in Northern Ireland. In the latest year, London and Wales have seen increases in both overall and child poverty, while the West Midlands and South West have seen reductions. 3/7

5.5 million people in poverty were in a family containing a disabled person, 4 in 10 of all people in poverty. If benefits there to pay the extra costs of disability are excluded from income, this rises to almost half, with a quarter of people in those families in poverty. 2/7

An infographic saying that there were around 13.4 million people were in poverty in 2024/25, a rise of 500,000 in overall poverty between 2023/24 and 2024/25. This was made up of: 4.0 million children (no change) 7.7 million working-age adults [up 300k] 1.7 million pensioners [up 200k]

The story in yesterday’s poverty data? A small rise in poverty in Labour’s first year, up by 500k to 13.4 million in 2024/25.
⬆️working-age adults in poverty went up by 300k
⬆️number of pensioner in poverty went up by 200k
↔️child poverty stayed flat.
More action needed! 1/7

Next generation poverty statistics On the 26 March, we will see new, improved poverty statistics in Department for Work and Pensions (DWP)’s Households Below Average Income Statistics. Here's what you need to know.

On 26th March, new poverty stats are out. They'll look different though, with one of the biggest ever changes in methodology. Read why this is short-term pain for long-term gain, and why the changes are a bit like this Formula 1 season: linkedin.com/pulse/next-g...

What an excellent review - hope the rest of the run goes well!

Basically yes - you can see OBR forecasting rent growth being faster than earnings growth by looking at rents in the Q2 2026 to Q2 2029 in OBR economy table 1.7 and compare that with average weekly earnings growth in table 1.6. And net earnings growth is dampened by fiscal drag.

Rising housing costs is the main reason - across all incomes terciles.

Speedy analysis from @jrf-uk.bsky.social . This is how modelled household incomes evolve over the Parliament after deducting housing costs. It's a disappointing picture. Let's hope the Government beat the forecasts, although the headwinds from the current conflict shouldn't be underestimated.

Pleased to talk through @jrf-uk.bsky.social evidence on the impact on society of the pandemic today at @ukcovid-19inquiry.bsky.social. We need to learn from people's insight and lived experience, and I want to thank everyone we worked with or who provided info during extraordinarily stressful times.

Following #UKPoverty2026, more warning signs flashing. As well as describing problem of insufficient income from work, the Minimum Income Standard helps the solution as the key data source for the Real Living Wage ‪‪@livingwageuk.bsky.social‬‬. Even with falling inflation, costs continue to bite.

Do send in any questions - we have an excellent team of analysts ready to answer any questions you have!