The “NATO Expansion” Myth The war that Russia isn’t fighting.

Here's a link to the longer article on Medium, in case you missed it:

medium.com/@geogvma/the...

Ukraine’s stolen children expose the lies at the heart of Russia’s four-year military assault A Russian state whose leadership denies the existence of a separate Ukrainian identity will not be satisfied with mere territorial concessions in any peace efforts.

I'm not sure if she's on Bsky, but Tamara Krawchenko and I just published a piece for The Conversation, related to the much longer essay I put on Medium yesterday, about the "NATO expansion" myth and the deportation & russification of Ukrainian children.

theconversation.com/ukraines-sto...

The “NATO Expansion” Myth The war that Russia isn’t fighting.

Happy to say I've finally gotten around to finishing an essay about the "NATO expansion" myth. It was intended originally for the newsletter, but it got too big so I put it on Medium instead. As always, it's free for everyone, so please have a read!

medium.com/@geogvma/the...

Fascinating how "present" Russia is at these Olympics, despite being barred from competing: "neutral" athletes; flags everywhere; "apolitical" sports fans going on about how "Russia should be there"; and indeed in the IOC's own repeated efforts to deny Ukrainians a voice.

How to Overthrow a Dictator, Part 2 The ground beneath the temple shakes.

Dictators think they reside in a fortress, insulated from the people. In truth, they depend on elites to act as pillars of their regimes. Popular resistance can force those pillars to break away.

Part two of my series on the downfall of Philippine strongman Ferdinand Marcos:

How to Overthrow a Dictator, Part 1 Despots are more vulnerable than you think.

My latest: Dictators are not omnipotent. They depend for support on security forces, business elites, party allies, civil servants, and ordinary people. Deprive him of that support, and he’s just a man, isolated and powerless.

Understanding this will be the key to removing Trump. /n

“They Want Us to Surrender”: Kyiv Residents Without Heat and Electricity After Russian Strikes Kyiv residents face prolonged power, heating, and water outages after Russian missile and drone attacks as temperatures drop below zero.

⚡️Kyiv residents are vowing to never surrender as brutal Russian missile strikes leave the capital frozen without heat or power in subzero temperatures.

Renee Good's family hires George Floyd law firm to investigate Minneapolis ICE shooting Renee Good’s family hired the law firm that represented George Floyd’s family to seek answers and accountability for the Minneapolis mother’s killing by a federal immigration agent

Renee Good's family is accusing federal immigration officers of killing the Minneapolis mother of three as she attempted to follow agents' instructions, and have now hired the same law firm that represented George Floyd's family to press for answers and accountability.

General Staff: Russia exaggerates claims of territorial gains amid heavy losses Russia’s senior military leadership is significantly exaggerating the amount of Ukrainian territory its forces have captured, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s General Staff said.

Russia’s senior military leadership is significantly exaggerating the amount of Ukrainian territory its forces have captured, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s General Staff said

Working on another piece right now as well, but (as usual) it’s getting a bit long for the Substack format and so I might put it on medium and excerpt it for the newsletter.

"Ambassadors" and Popular Geopolitics How do we imagine the world?

A little article I posted a bit over a month ago but forgot to mention here, I guess. A look at how popular culture and media can shape (or reaffirm) what we know (or think we know) about the world.

open.substack.com/pub/geogvma/...

Until this morning, Ukraine had no missiles left for air defense systems, Zelenskyy said. A major package arrived this morning.

Launchers without missiles can’t protect cities. When deliveries move slowly, Ukraine pays in blood and lives. Words don’t intercept strikes. Air defense does.

Live Updates: Newly Released Records Detail Chaos During Fatal ICE Shooting in Minneapolis

Holy shit.

Renee Good was alive when the bystander physician asked to check her pulse. She was alive when ICE refused to let him help. She was alive when they told him “I don’t care.”

www.nytimes.com/live/2026/01...

Pritzker: The Insurrection Act is designed for circumstances where your rights can’t be protected by local authorities

This is exactly the opposite.

Your civil rights are being infringed upon by CBP and ICE, and then they want to call in troops claiming that they’re protecting CBP and ICE.

Over the past week, Russia’s attacks on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure have left people across the country without electricity, heating, and water amid subzero temperatures.

The Kyiv Independent team is reporting from Kyiv, where prolonged blackouts have forced us to adapt.

Not sure I’d necessarily say “every single one,” but an awful lot of them seem to have followed that arc.

I don’t know almost anything about Sean McCarthy and I only became aware of him after 2022 (his Ukraine takes were awful). But everything I do know about him makes clear he’s a total lowlife.

Who'd have thought the horseshoe theory would ever manifest as Trump's and Chomsky's fans both using the same excuse for their cult leader's relationship with one of the worst sex traffickers in modern times.

How Putin Got His Preferred U.S. Envoy: Come Alone, No CIA The Kremlin fueled the rise of Trump’s friend Steve Witkoff with a prisoner release, sidelining career diplomats.

Who chose Steve Witkoff? Putin

www.wsj.com/world/putin-...

Especially now that the Trump regime has made it clear that it hates Europe and wants to totally disengage, hacks like Mate can’t even claim the EU is an American puppet.

So they just have to weave crazy stories about “war-crazy Denmark” and stuff. It’s really funny.

Like, it was patently silly when they alleged it about the US. But to say that EU states, which have historically underfunded their militaries and had to be dragged kicking and screaming to stop buying gas from Russia are waging a “proxy war” is just laughable in the extreme. /2

One silver lining in the US-Russia rapprochement is that it’s forced mouthpieces like Aaron to shift to the much more ridiculous and less believable narrative that the EU is “war crazy” and waging a “Ukraine proxy war” against the country they all used to buy gas from. /1

They don’t care as long as they’re being paid.

It's fear masquerading as contempt.

Rightwing America does not want a Europe that is its own geopolitical power.

Exhibit B: Lawrence, Kansas

(that one little spot all the way on the east of the map where the district dips south into Douglas county)

"Ambassadors" and Popular Geopolitics How do we imagine the world?

Hey friends, I've got a new article up on The Checkpoint!

It's a long-delayed companion to my Medium article about geopolitics and uses the example of the (canceled) BBC show "Ambassadors" to explore how popular culture can shape how we understand the world.

geogvma.substack.com/p/ambassador...

Return Every Child - War Child Right now, tens of thousands of Ukrainian children are missing. These children are not lost. They have been stolen.

The "Return Every Child" report exposes how Russian authorities are ripping Ukrainian children from their homes, erasing their identities, and reshaping them to serve an authoritarian state. www.warchild.org.uk/returneveryc...

“He Must Have Got This From K.” How a Russian operative used the American media to force a risible “peace deal” into existence

Here is my read of the "peace plan" and how Kirill Dmitriev played the American media to force this thing into being -- with an incompetent White House scrambling to make it seem like this was somehow coordinated and well-planned. open.substack.com/pub/macspaun...