Consensus -> Tiers -> BPA -> Simulation

That's my framework. And that's how I'll be evaluating the draft starting Thursday night.

4. Simulate, don't just mock

Mock drafts are nice but you really have to simulate to better understand pick distributions. Not only does it help you understand who is going to be available at the next pick but it helps you build a plan for picks later in the draft.

3. Draft the best player, not the biggest need

This is true for the most part but reaching down the board to fill a positional need is going to burn you in the long run. First, we overrate our scouting abilities and second, your roster can change very quickly!

2. Understand draft curves

The difference between the 10th player and the 5th player is significantly more than the 30th and 25th. This is helpful in positional rankings as well as picking one player over another.

How should you evaluate a draft class? Here's my framework in four steps:

1. Use the consensus

Aggregating expert boards is a great way to predict player success at the next level. There's data showing that NFL teams would be better off using consensus boards over their own.

I keep going back and forth. On one hand, a lot of team will want to move but on the other hand, if a lot of teams aren’t happy with the top of the board, are we sure other teams will want to move up for those players?

The back end of the first could be really interesting too.

For instance, the Browns and Jags kept their trade under wraps for weeks…and this year the Browns are begging to trade back. Makes me think they’re struggling to find a partner.

The top of this draft is weak of premium position players but has a ton of non-premium positions players and I’m not sure if that means we get a flurry of trades or we get a new record for trades on draft night.

Do you think there will be a lot of trades?

Silly season has been here for a while but we are in full silly model with the Treydan Stukes getting first round love as a 25-year old ranked in the 50's on the consensus board.

Man, Buffalo looks electric right now. What a scene.

The Bengals defense was much improved in the second half of last season. Lawrence is a true difference maker for them. I really like the move.

The compensation to get the move when you factor in you have to pay him is a different story.

Whenever someone analyzes the Dexter Lawrence trade, remember that the Bengals still have to pay him.

I used historical consensus boards to create a projection for each project.

The projection is where they'll end up in APY for their second contract. Here is the outcome for a few prospects:

This does a good job or explaining positional value.

Which projection is wrong here?

Here is my projection for Will Anderson Jr.

I used historical consensus boards to create a projection for each project.

The projection is where they'll end up in APY for their second contract. Here is the outcome for a few prospects:

This does a good job or explaining positional value.

Which projection is wrong here?

Picking Ashton Jeanty in top 10 would be a mistake, learning wrong lesson from Saquon Barkley Don't learn the wrong lesson from Barkley's success: Running backs haven't suddenly become more valuable than they were before.

Read here:

www.nytimes.com/athletic/626...

Jeremiyah Love fits in this category as well. And I wrote about drafting a running back early last year when Ashton Jeanty came through.

Is Caleb Downs valuable enough to warrant spending a top-5 pick on a safety? Downs is one of this draft class' top prospects, without question, but he plays a non-premium position.

Read here:

www.nytimes.com/athletic/719...

Caleb Downs is one of the best prospects in this draft class…but can you take him with a top-5 pick? What about the top-10?

I took a deep dive into why I think it’s unwise to draft a safety that high because of the future salary and roster ramifications.

A mid-April check-in on the 2027 recruiting class:

- Texas A&M and Oklahoma leading the way
- Texas Tech isn't going anywhere
- Ohio State and Georgia in the Top-5

2026 NFL Draft consensus rankings: Arvell Reese moves back into No. 1 spot What does our latest consensus board reveal about how the early rounds on this year's NFL Draft might play out?

The 2026 NFL Draft Consensus Big Board is updated.

- Jeremiyah Love and Caleb Downs are top prospects but will they be drafted high?
- Chris Johnson is a player to watch for CB2

Full board: www.nytimes.com/athletic/719...

Who’s ranked too low?

The updated Consensus Big Board drops tomorrow morning.

Top-100 prospects with the NFL Draft looming next week.

What jumps out to me is there is no clear studs at premium positions.

More tomorrow.

Oh no, Rory.

Oneil Cruz MVP activated

Denver getting dominated in both of their Frozen Four games en route to a national title is so cruel.

Eagles

I likely won’t be through the Philly airport before the start of next season.

Will this Eagles display need changed before September?

Maybe the most interesting thing to me about this draft's OT class is that Mauigoa and Fano aren't seen as for sure tackles and Freeling is raw.

And then you have a freak in Kadyn Proctor who also might be a guard.

How high does OT1 go? And who is it?

It’s private right now.

As for missing data, I just omit it. To get a composite grade, they have to do at least four drills.

The model adjusts for height and weight at the prospect’s position which is then converted to a percentile.

Basically a 4.9 40 is more impressive at 310 pounds than at 290 pounds.

My top composite athletic score for the 2026 NFL Draft class is Georgia Tech DT Jordan van den Berg.

Adjusting for height, weight, and position, van den Berg rates as the most athletic player in the draft class.

Projected as a 7th round pick per the consensus board.