Posts by James Murray
UN climate chief making a compelling case for a bolder response to the latest fossil fuel shock.
www.businessgreen.com/news/4528603...
While the Government's intent in seeking break the link between gas and electricity price is the right one, the actual implementation of it as laid out here is unlikely to reduce consumer bills.
www.gov.uk/government/n...
As a coda to this, is it really a retroactive policy change? Wholesale CfDs are voluntary and the tax hike was always a risk given windfall profits. The bigger issue for me is the claim it breaks the link between gas and power prices when it doesn't really do that, or at least doesn't do it quickly.
But it looks like these are not quite the radical market reforms many had assumed and hoped would be coming.
Moreover, the increased heat pump grants, funding for social housing, and latest planning reforms are all welcome steps forward that will boost clean tech deployment and curb fossil fuel reliance.
The reforms should still help trim energy policy costs if generators do move from legacy Renewables Obligation support to the new wholesale CfDs and the on-going clean energy roll out will gradually marginalise gas' role in setting prices over the coming years.
And privately some industry insiders are even more withering, with one claiming the government has "somehow stumbled onto the worst possible version of this policy".
BNEF reckons the changes to renewables subsidies will not really help delink gas and power prices, which remains the primary driver of high energy bills.
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Lots of good stuff in the government's clean energy announcements this morning, but several experts reckon they've oversold the idea these reforms 'break the link' between gas and power prices. www.businessgreen.com/news/4528585...
Also they have social media in Canada and Carney's doing fine.
They have it in Spain and Sanchez has been PM since 2018.
And in France where Macron's been President since 2017.
52 years old and this is literally the first time any politician has ever done what I said. Doughnuts (except Ed Miliband, he's ok) www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
You’re saying he should never have been appointed and I agree with you,” Miliband told Sky News. “I steered well clear of Peter Mandelson when I became Labour leader in 2010.” Asked what he thought about Mandelson’s initial appointment, he said: “That it could blow up, that it could go wrong … I had a conversation with David Lammy about it before the appointment, and I said I was worried about it … I think he was worried about it too.” But Miliband said he was not asked directly what his views were of the appointment. “Maybe I wasn’t the person that people would necessarily ask. I think people knew my view on Peter Mandelson,” he added. Miliband said he did not think it was a resigning matter for the prime minister. “No, I don’t think he should. Because I think if every time a prime minister made a mistake they resigned, we would shuttle through prime ministers like nobody’s business.
something deeply relatable at the undisguised tone of I FUCKING TOLD YOU SO pervading these statements
So DESNZ is not pursuing eg taking gas plants out of the market or any of the already rejected ideas for splitting the market eg green power pool. Instead, it is resurrecting "pot zero" CfDs for older renewables, which earn windfall profits when gas prices are high.
2/3
But presumably gas is still the marginal price setter most of the time? Is is the case that this should help curb the amount of time gas is setting prices a bit (interestingly govt hasn't published any modelling as yet on how much), but doesn't fully break the link?
... unless I'm missing something it won't break role of gas in setting wholesale power prices. Presumably the full announcement will feature further reforms?
... it will be interesting to see if there's more to the proposed electricity market reforms. Moving legacy wind and solar projects onto CfDs will help lower costs (although most of those costs are borne by the Treasury, not billpayers as of April), but...
Two caveats: firstly there's no new money. Other governments have pumped more money into efficiency and clean tech programmes, but the UK Treasury can't afford it, even though it would obviously help; and...
Really welcome package of clean energy measures from Ed Miliband coming today. Should make a meaningful difference to energy bills relatively quickly.
www.businessgreen.com/news/4528554...
This feels absolutely right from @paulkrugman.substack.com.web.brid.gy. Yes, clean tech will soften the blow and will be the big long term winner from this crisis, but analysts and governments are still far too relaxed about how bad things could get. paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-harm-f...
If the strait stays closed for 3m a global recession is pretty much nailed on. By my back of the envelope it will take 30-45 more days to completely exhaust buffer stocks and flex. Sometime before that we will start to see aggressive demand destruction.
This is more important than Starmer being a poor fit for the job he is in.
I want to know whether I am going to be able to sit under an umbrella on the beach reading or not.
(or, less selfishly, whether many people are going to go hungry).
Where is the analysis based on days closed?
It does feel very Westminster village suddenly and I think this is probably right.
It's going to be even worse the next time they appoint Peter Mandelson
Heh
He'd get the worst imaginable abuse from the press, but if the task is to actually govern while uniting and mobilising the left-leaning bloc to vote tactically to defeat Farage and Badenoch he could well be the best candidate.
Not what the fossil fuel oligarchs had in mind, exactly. But very, very nice.
Good job there's not an actual war, historic fossil fuel shock, looming economic trainwreck, and gathering fascist threat to deal with.