i hear what you're saying and i've really appreciated your perspective that is sorely needed. those 'all in the rearview' decisions all come with future sacrifices that the team has to pay for now. it gets to a point where there just isn't much they can do except start over.
SAC
O/U: 35.5; actual: 22
Turns out they never actually did a huge tank pivot; they were free-trade organic shitty for most of the season. Picked them to be last in the West and I was super-duper right.
Mark record: 21-9
UTA
O/U: 18.5; actual: 22
My best preseason bet. Keyonte George's ascendance and JJJ trade meant that they needed to hit the brakes WAY harder than anyone thought would be necessary in order to keep their pick. But they were always going to be naturally not-horrific.
Mark record: 20-9
NOP
O/U: 30.5; actual: 26 (under)
The team is just bad and poorly constructed. Friskier on defense after they fired Willie Green.
Mark record: 19-9
PHX
O/U: 30.5; actual: 45 (over)
What else can you say? Great job this year by everyone involved. Collin Gillespie was such a find and Mark Williams played way more than we thought (altho maybe his impact is overstated).
Mark record: 18-9
POR
O/U: 35.5; actual: 42
Good pick! Tiago Splitter is a better coach than Billups, and you win more games than expected when you have the Most Improved Player.
MEM
O/U: 39.5; actual: 25
Yeah, this team is butt without Edey. Altho I'm not sure Iisalo is actually helping.
Mark record: 18-8
DAL
O/U: 41.5; actual: 26 (under)
Dallas was regular-bad/mediocre as I expected, and then they super-tanked the end of the season way, way harder.
Mark record: 16-8
LAL
O/U: 46.5; actual: 53 (over)
Luka was amazing! LeBron was really good! They were also 13th in net rating so I'm not exactly upset that I missed this one. I'll be rooting for them vs. Houston, as crazy that is to say.
Mark record: 15-8
GSW
O/U: 47.5; actual: 37 (under)
Another narrow under pick! Team looked amazing before Butler went down. A real bummer of a season; what can you do. Good riddance to Kuminga.
Mark record: 15-7
SAS
O/U: 44.5; actual: 62 (over)
The talk is rightfully mostly about Wembanyama, but they went from an obvious over pick to transcendent powerhouse in large part because of Castle & Harper. This is a fully-formed team that I wasn't expecting to be THIS ready quite yet.
Mark record: 14-7
HOU
O/U: 52.5; actual: 52 (under)
I was right to go under, barely! Their offense looks worse and worse and I think it's time we look at Kevin Durant as a problem here, despite his typical excellent efficiency.
Mark record: 13-7
MIN
O/U: 49.5; actual: 49 (under)
🎯🎯🎯!!! If Anthony Edwards missed more games, this could've been a problem. Love how they tweaked the roster with the limited tools they had. Important summer upcoming, regardless of what they do vs. Denver.
Mark record: 12-7
LAC
O/U: 49.5; actual: 42 (under)
I knew this one was in trouble when they lost to Utah in game 1 by ten thousand points. Whoops.
Mark record: 11-7
DEN
O/U: 53.5; actual: 54 (over)
I would have absolutely 🎯 this pick if Jokic's ironman ability wasn't tested this year. Still, I was right to pick the over. Shoutout to Jamal Murray's best professional regular season.
Mark record: 11-6
OKC
O/U: 62.5; actual: 64 (over)
I believed in OKC's ability to hit the over on 62.5. Didn't quite stomp on teams all year, but 64 wins is way more impressive than people think.
Mark record: 10-6
BKN
O/U: 19.5; actual: 20 (over)
what a stupid outcome to get the over. Brooklyn was crazy good defensively in December and Jordi Fernandez has my full attention once they give him a real roster.
Mark record: 9-6
WAS
O/U: 20.5; actual: 17 (under)
Brian Keefe did not, in fact, coach some interesting opportunities. The Wizards oddly underperformed, but I didn't have much faith to begin with. Stupid organization.
Mark record: 9-5
CHA
O/U: 27.5; actual: 44 (over)
This was a good process! All of the potential hit WAY sooner than we thought, driven by Kon Knueppel of course, but the shift to Diabate really mattered and I think Brandon Miller was pretty solid. I knew they had it in them, just not so early!
Mark record: 8-5
CHI
O/U: 33.5; actual: 31 (under)
haha, 🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯🎯. well, their defense was only 9th-worst. that's a credit to Billy Donovan.
Mark record: 7-5
IND
O/U: 37.5; actual: 19 (under)
Hit the under appropriately. What started as a stealth-tank season became a necessary tank season filled with 10-days and bullshit players constantly in the rotation.
Mark record: 6-5
BOS
O/U: 41.5; actual: 56 (over)
goddamn. the Jaylen Brown/Mazzulla/Tatum discourse completely overshadows the greatest accomplishment: every rotation player had one of their best seasons. What an upleveled performance. I should've tweaked this one game and I'd have hit the over.
Mark record: 5-5
ORL
O/U: 51.5; actual: 45 (under)
Another one of my best bets that I nailed. I'm not even sure Jamahl Mosley is the problem here as much as others do. He's not good but this roster is stupid.
Mark record: 5-4
MIA
O/U: 37.5; actual: 43 (over)
Well they WERE constantly injured but this is just always going to be a team that will flirt closer to .500 ball than not.
Mark record: 4-4
TOR
O/U: 39.5; actual: 46 (over)
Never believed they would be all that bad. One of my best bets. I'd be so, so much higher on their outlook if they didn't have that stupid Jakob Poeltl contract.
Mark record: 3-4
PHL
O/U: 43.5; actual: 45 (over)
🎯. Hardest team to predict but from week to week they gave enough shits to be competitive.
Mark record: 2-4
DET
O/U: 46.5; actual: 60 (over)
Ugh, I was SO close on the merits and just didn't give Detroit one more win. I should've just picked them for more wins based on my faith in their regular season outlook.
Mark record: 1-4 (IT GETS BETTER)
MIL
OU: 43.5; actual: 32 (under)
All I'll say about this is that my opinion of Giannis Antetokounmpo cratered this season. The W/L isn't all his fault, but he inspired zero teammates to push higher and be better than the sum of their parts.
Mark record: 1-3
CLE:
O/U: 56.5; actual: 52 (under)
Bizarre season where they were forced to experiment, and then dramatically changed their entire approach with the Harden trade. Still though, I never bought into the 60-win upside, and I was 100% right.
Mark record: 1-2
NYK:
O/U: 53.5; actual: 53 (under)
What can I say, I was off by a win here, but a bet is a bet and this counts as an L. Mitchell Robinson looks great and they've managed his health marvelously.
Mark record: 0-2
ATL:
O/U: 46.5; actual: 46 (under)
Crazy season from them! I expected Quin Snyder to figure out a regular season juggernaut, and he eventually did, just later than expected. They were right to extricate Trae Young from their future.
Mark record: 0-1