The bottom line is that the drivers of future natural catastrophe and climate change risk are becoming more complex with time. Most people focus on physical damage risk, but the non-hazard factors are increasingly a major concern for how we calculate the cost of disasters in the years ahead.
(6/6)
We also note that the emergence of more expensive exterior technologies onto homes / businesses such as solar panels, battery packs, etc will only further drive higher claims in the future. Same goes for the growth of data centers into some of the most SCS-prone states in the US.
(5/n)
A complex integration of macroeconomic, socioeconomic, social inflation, construction practices, and geopolitical issues are ultimately enhancing final loss totals. These factors reasonably account for 80-90% of the 10% nominal rate of annual SCS insured loss growth in the last 20+ years.
(4/n)
While, of course, there is an element of influence from climate change and annual extreme weather volatility, we conclude that the hazard factors play a more limited role in loss cost growth (10-20%).
(3/n)
We conducted a very deep dive into historical US severe convective storm (SCS) losses and sought to clearly define what has driven the consistent upward loss trend since 2008.
(2/n)
We've released our Q1 2026 Natural Catastrophe & Climate Report. A very active start to the year for societal impacts from anomalous weather / climate events, but this did not translate to abnormal financial loss costs:
Economic: >$58bn
Insured: >$20bn
Report: www.ajg.com/gallagherre/...
(1/n)
Update: We're in the basement.
April 17 (4:50pm CT): For those of us in the northern suburbs of Chicago, as well as around Rockford, Milwaukee, Kenosha, etc.
FYI.
Conditions will be deteriorating soon as leading supercells approach / develop. The environment is primed for possible significant tornadoes and/or very large hail.
Typhoon #Sinlaku has made a direct landfall on the Northern Mariana Islands (Saipan & Tinian); a US territory. While the storm weakened from its peak intensity (180 mph; 1-min avg; Category 5), it still struck as a powerful Category 4-equivalent storm.
Hester (Jan 1953)
Thelma (Apr 1956)
Ophelia (Jan 1958)
Andy (Apr 1989)
Isa (Apr 1997)
Mitag (Mar 2002)
Maysak (Mar 2015)
Wutip (Feb 2019)
Surigae (Apr 2021)
Super Typhoon #Sinlaku is now a Category 5-equivalent storm in the Western Pacific and may affect Guam / Northern Mariana Islands.
Per JTWC: This is just the 10th known Category 5 storm in the basin prior to May 1 since 1945.
A sign of things to come if a strong El Niño develops by peak season?
Science. The absolute freaking coolest. The precision of such unbelievably complex planning is breathtaking.
Science is worth every single investment dollar... and infinitely more.
The Easter bunny brought umbrellas for the kids today, and to hear my kids tell it, this became an even better day than Christmas.
My little science nerds.
The fully detailed budget estimates / cuts (which also suggests a $4.8bn cut to the National Science Foundation) can be viewed here:
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
Proposed cuts to select science / climate programs in the 2027 FY budget:
- NASA (Science & STEM Outreach): $3.54bn
- NOAA (Operations, Research, and Grants): $1.6bn
- DOE (Office of Science): $1.1bn
- NIST: $0.99bn
- EPA (Atmospheric Protection Program): $0.1bn
www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u...
March 27: Here are three graphics that highlight why there is rising concern regarding the prospect of difficult wildfire activity in the months to come.
- Widespread drought
- Very dry soils
- Well below normal Western US snowpack (water equivalent)
This is on top of continued anomalous heat.
March 27 WST: Cyclone Narelle approaching landfall (again). This time in Western Australia near Learmonth. The storm remains a Cat 4 on the Bureau of Meteorology scale and the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale.
Remarkable track. Cyclone Steve (2000) had a similar track, but was not nearly as strong.
Certainly seems a pretty clear case to be made that can link weather / climate risk, insurance premiums, and housing market pricing trends...
www.fastcompany.com/91496910/hou...
Latest US Census Bureau county level population data for 2025 has been released. Texas, Arizona, and North Carolina counties continue to see the fastest numeric levels of growth.
Surprise? Pinellas / Miami-Dade counties in Florida rank #2 and #3 for biggest year-over-year numeric declines.
Cyclone Narelle is making the case for one of the most incredible / unique Australia storm tracks on record. The storm originally made landfall in far northern Queensland on March 20, and is now forecast to outline most of the entire northern & western coasts of the country.
The record-breaking US March heatwave is the latest in a lengthy and ongoing list of global examples of increasingly extreme events.
It is another reminder that historical weather event datasets alone are an ineffective guide to plan against what a future climate environment will bring.
Gorgeous view on the ferry ride to work this morning.
March 15: Great graphic from NOAA ahead of the next 48 hours of expected severe weather.
Main threats: Tornadoes & Damaging Straight-line Winds
Note that we're likely to see an elongated line of thunderstorms marked by high winds. Expect numerous quick-lived embedded tornadoes within this line.
Update: As of March 14, local National Weather Service meteorologists and engineering assessors have now confirmed at least 70 tornado touchdowns from the March 10-12 outbreak.
EF0: 24
EF1: 42
EF2: 3
EF3: 1
Unknown: 1
Happy Pi Day!
An important point to make as US severe convective storm (SCS) season ramps up: the Gulf of Mexico. Sea surface temperatures are running at record warm levels. This will only feed more warmth / moisture into advancing storm systems that can influence more extreme outbreak behavior.
(3/3)
As the system shifts eastward through the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic on Monday (March 16), there will be continued elevated tornado / damaging wind risk.
(2/3)
March 13: An early heads up on what is increasingly looking like a day of dangerous severe weather across parts of the Midwest, Mississippi Valley, and Southeast on Sunday (March 15). Tornadoes and damaging straight-line winds appear to be the primary risk.
(1/3)
The March 10-12 US severe weather outbreak was very impactful. The deadly tornadoes have rightly garnered a lot of attention, but hail damage in parts of several major metro areas (Chicago, Oklahoma City, Kansas City, etc) was substantial. Certainly a billion-dollar-plus event for insurers.
Dodged severe weather and hailstones 14 hours ago. Accumulating snowfall today.
Life in the Midwest during spring!
