Come for Mary's analysis of Iran polling, stay for my terrible Hungarian

Is online discourse getting worse?

To bring actual data to bear on this question, we launched the Public Discourse Indicator, a dashboard tracking online comments submitted to several major Swiss newspapers. Our aim here is twofold:
www.public-discourse.org/en/public-di...

Epstein Fallout, The Shutdown Fight, And Gallup's Goodbye How the Epstein files and immigration enforcement might figure into Democrats’ midterm strategy.

On the latest GD POLITICS episode...

➡️ Epstein fallout
➡️ DHS shutdown fight
➡️ Gallup's farewell to prez approval
➡️ Election updates

w/ friends of the pod Mary Radcliffe & @lennybronner.com!

ok, but have they considered an ensemble model?

We Answer Your Questions On ICE, Iran, And The Senate Americans are facing a torrent of politics news. You have lots of questions. We did our best to answer them.

Americans are facing a torrent of political news 🤪

@lennybronner.com and I answered your questions on ICE, Iran, the Senate and more on today's episode of GD POLITICS.

www.gdpolitics.com/p/we-answer-...

Celebrity Politicians, Dummymandering, And The Texas Primary We answer listener questions on the power of celebrity, the Republican Texas Senate primary, and much more.

Today on GD POLITICS:

Celebrity Politicians, Dummymandering, And The Texas Primary

w/ @lennybronner.com!

www.gdpolitics.com/p/celebrity-...

Polling Analyst at DISNEY Learn more about applying for Polling Analyst at DISNEY

This is a great job for early-career polling folks. Plus, you’d get to work with the delightful @emgusk.bsky.social ! www.disneycareers.com/en/job/washi...

Quite the survey from earlier this month in Germany. 61% of Left and 52% of Green voters would like Angela Merkel back as chancellor. Compared to only 22% of voters from her own center-right party.

Ich bin gezeichnet von einem 1:1 Match, das wir gewonnen haben!

A 2025 Election Post-Mortem The numbers behind Democrats' impressive performance and what it means for 2026, plus the latest Epstein file polling.

id a 2025 post-mortem on the latest GD POLITICS pod w/
@lennybronner.com, @linleyann.bsky.social & Lakshya Jain.

We discussed the who, where & why behind Democrats' impressive performance + what it portends for '26.

There's some Epstein file polling and moderates vs. progressives discourse too.

Pooled and re-analyzed NJ/VA exit poll data to see which Trump voters were likeliest to vote Democrat for governor

While only 5% of White Trump voters flipped, the rate was 21% for voters of color — 36% of Black voters and 17% of Latino voters

And Latino women (25%) more than Latino men (10%)

1/2

same divide can be seen in Bayside and Douglaston vs Richmond Hill and South Ozone Park

Striking difference between East and South Asian communities. In Jackson Heights Mamdani gets 60% of the vote vs. in Flushing only 35%

broke: age differential voting
woke: age differential in turnout

Can also be seen in the margin shift by largest demographic group in the precinct, which he gained a lot in Black and Hispanic precincts.

Mamdani's gains relative to the primary was really driven by the Bronx and Brooklyn, elsewhere it stayed relatively constant.

TONIGHT:

REVENGE OF THE NERDS -- GD POLITICS @ 7PM ET

@baseballot.bsky.social @rubashkin.bsky.social @lennybronner.com @erincovey.bsky.social

What New Jersey Could Reveal About the Rightward Shift of Hispanic Voters

Teamed up with @shanegoldmacher.bsky.social to take a look at the NJ governor’s race & what its results could tell us about the durability of Trump’s 2024 gains/“realignments”

www.nytimes.com/2025/10/30/u...

the naming of cats is a difficult matter

Rebranded!!!

try and beat me

Americans can’t stop betting parlays. Sportbooks are cashing in. As betting booms, parlays are accounting for an increasing share of the money wagered on sports, according to a Washington Post analysis of state data.

How America’s favorite sports bet is fueling sportsbook profits

Parlays are becoming more popular, accounting for an increasing share of the money wagered on sports, according to a Post analysis of betting data. Bettors lose billions a year on these bets.

www.washingtonpost.com/sports/inter...

Here’s how TikTok ‘power users’ end up scrolling 4 hours a day or more Washington Post reporters analyzed data from over 800 TikTok users to learn how the app turns people into power users, some of whom spend hours per day scrolling.

🤳EXCLUSIVE: We analyzed real data from over 800 U.S. TikTok users to reveal how the app transforms casual users into power users.

Extremely proud of this one, over a year in the making w/ @richardsima.bsky.social Leslie Shapiro @asteckelberg.bsky.social @ence.bsky.social

wapo.st/4obueib

Why Americans Blame Republicans For The Government Shutdown Demands from Democrats provoked the shutdown, but so far Republicans are getting more blame.

Demands from Dems provoked the government shutdown, but Reps are getting most of the blame so far. Why?

I talked about it on GD POLITICS today w/ @lennybronner.com and Mary Radcliffe.

We also discussed that poll out of PA showing Fetterman is -20 with PA Dems, but +40 with PA Reps.

I'd been delinquent, but I've updated my spreadsheet of special election results. On average, Democrats have done 13 points better than a neutral baseline. docs.google.com/spreadsheets...

A scatterplot, including a line of best fit, showing that the average length of presidents' surnames went from between 7 and 8 characters between 1800 and 1930 to between 4 and 5 characters after 2000.

Presidents’ names are getting shorter. Why?

incredible investigation by @andrewvandam.bsky.social and @alyssafowers.bsky.social

www.washingtonpost.com/business/202...

that I'm not even sure what that means. also pls no.

Election Updates, Listener Questions, And A Note On Charlie Kirk A note on the assassination of Charlie Kirk.

On the latest GD POLITICS installment, @lennybronner.com and I answer your questions about the youth gender gap, Democrats' unpopularity, ChatGPT election forecasting, & more.

We also chatted about the latest election results in VA 11 and... Norway!
www.gdpolitics.com/p/election-u...

have you taken a look at pyro?