🎉I'll be promoted to full professor at the University of Pennsylvania School of Social Policy & Practice, effective July 2026! Grateful for of the many people who've helped and challenged me along the way. Now off to work on #AI and its impact on the economy, society, & policy!
Exciting funding opportunity for #AI economics research! The call focuses on labor market impacts & scientific productivity. Apply to this RFP. As a program partner, I am excited to learn about your work while reviewing your applications! schmidtsciences.smapply.io/prog/ai_at_w...
Next was a compelling panel on antitrust and labor with Rosa M. Morales, Suresh Naidu, @imarinescu.bsky.social, @evanpstarr.bsky.social, and Jonathan Guryan www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1V6... (7/9)
As
@KordingLab
and I argue, it is much cheaper to replace humans in the intelligence than in the physical domain. #AI
Everyone's excited about robot fry cooks. But here's what I told @fortune.com: the question isn't whether we can automate restaurant kitchens — it's whether it's worth it economically.
Robot hardware costs are declining far slower than AI software costs. fortune.com/2026/02/26/r...
For the longer version: my Digitalist Papers essay proposes two complementary policies:
1️⃣ AI Adjustment Insurance
2️⃣ Digital Dividend; a scalable cash benefit starting small but ready to grow if needed.
Flexible tools for an uncertain transition.
🔗 digitalistpapers.com/vol2/marinescu
UK minister floats UBI to cushion AI job losses. I weighed in Fortune. My take: we need safety nets that scale with uncertainty. But will AI's winners support redistribution once they've won?
🔗 fortune.com/2026/02/01/elon-musk-optional-work-fantasy-universal-basic-income-uk-minister-jason-stockwood
“In my mind, I see like little marbles or something,” Marinescu said. “It's like, plop, plop, plop, plop. Widget, widget, widget, widget.”
That's my very smart quote in this @marketplace.org episode about productivity measurement #EconSky
www.marketplace.org/story/2025/1...
The impact of AI on the labor market seen through the computational neuroscience lens 👇. Our Brookings paper is now posted on SSRN.
Welcome to #ASSA2026 in my home town! Please say hi if you see me in the corridors 😊! I look forward to seeing some of you tonight at the LERA research panel & reception w. Jared Bernstein @ericagroshen.bsky.social @darrickhamilton.bsky.social #EconSky
I am honored to be part of The Digitalist Papers, Volume 2 (www.digitalistpapers.com), 21 essays exploring the implications of the transformative economic power of artificial intelligence, setting the stage for change comparable to the Industrial Revolution but with far greater speed and scope.
How can we respond to the impact of transformative #AI on the labor market? In this Digitalist Paper, I propose: AI “adjustment insurance” (AI-AI) to help workers with transitory job losses, and a “digital dividend” to support those permanently without work. www.digitalistpapers.com/vol2/marinescu
Got my @econ5k.bsky.social T-shirt, #EconSky, and you should too if you're an econ runner! I hope to see you in Philly in January #ASSA2026 sites.google.com/view/econ5k/...
Your truly on Musk’s post-work society prediction. fortune.com/2025/11/20/e...
Good morning, chilly Amherst! Looking forward to my talk today on #AI saturation & the future of work, and to seeing dear colleagues & meeting new ones! #AcademicLife
It's a wrap on the AGI Journalism Workshop in D.C., co-hosted with the Tarbell Center for AI Journalism.
▸ AGI timelines, jobs, misalignment, U.S.–China policy & regulation
▸ @hlntnr.bsky.social, @akorinek.bsky.social, @imarinescu.bsky.social, @gleave.me, @alexbores.nyc, @deanwb.bsky.social + more
Takeaways:
👉#AI returns saturate if physical lags
👉Wages often rise & fall as intelligence automates
👉Wage declines require shrinking intelligence-job share
👉Policy: pace deployment + invest in physical capacity; don’t bet on a “singularity”
Result 4 (simulation). Here we simulate adding more AI, during and after automation. (1) Wage effects of adding more AI saturate. (2) Higher substitutability between physical and intelligence can lead to wage declines during automation but allows for unbounded wage growth post-automation.
Result 3 (simulation):when intelligence and physical are more substitutable, automation of intelligence has a larger positive effect on output.
➡️What’s better for workers’ wages is worse for output, trade-offs.
Result 2 (simulation): when intelligence and physical are more substitutable, automation of intelligence has a more positive wage effect early on but a more negative effect later.
➡️Cautionary tale, early wage gains may not persist!
Result 1: as automation of intelligence by #AI progresses, output increases and there’s an increase in the share of workers in the physical sector \beta (i.e., in person work, including e.g. cooking, teaching and surgery).
Model: Output is produced with intelligence and physical sectors (CES), each powered by humans and capital (AI is the capital in the intelligence sector). Labor optimally reallocates between physical and intelligence to maximize wages.
Is intelligence saturation plausible?
(1) More intelligent people are not proportionately more successful.
(2) Adding more scientific researchers yields lower and lower additional output
(3) Prior tech (ICT) revolution had limited growth impacts.
Why distinguish physical and intelligence? Intelligence saturation: intelligence can make physical inputs maximally efficient, but the impact saturates.
➡️Physical and intelligence sectors are complements, you need more of both to increase output.
We've made an interactive tool you can play with to see how wages would evolve with automation & with adding exponentially more #AI, depending on parameters of your choice. Have fun (but maybe read the paper first 😈)! intelligencesaturation.org
New @brookings.edu paper w. @kordinglab.bsky.social : Artificial Intelligence Saturation & the Future of Work. Wages can ↗️&↘️with #AI automation, as humans are pushed into physical jobs. In the longer run, intelligence saturation limits benefits from #AI. www.brookings.edu/articles/art... #EconSky
#AI research fellow job at Schmidt Sciences. You can take it as a year of leave from your university too. One of the areas of focus is AI’s impact on the labor market #EconSky 👇
Listen to our conversation on competition and #monopsony in the labor market, and the #antitrust policy implications. I had a lot of fun talking to David Fisher from AAI, like we had to cut out some of the laughing 🤭. I hope you enjoy it as much as we did!
www.antitrustinstitute.org/work-product...
