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Posts by Joe Noonan

Feels like a 2010-era Onion YouTube video.

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I think this is a fundamental problem when we study rare events with small samples - we end up over indexing no matter what happens.

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It's always fun, when teaching incumbency turnover as a measure of democracy, to ask my Swedish students if they can think of any country where one party held uninterrupted executive power for decades.

1 day ago 17 2 1 0
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The 'Information from Abroad' workshop starts today. @aarhusbss.bsky.social

Glad to bring together a great group of researchers working on how citizens and elites respond to foreign signals (especially relevant amid war, tariffs, and election interference). Grateful for support @carlsbergfondet.dk

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It's always fun, when teaching incumbency turnover as a measure of democracy, to ask my Swedish students if they can think of any country where one party held uninterrupted executive power for decades.

1 day ago 17 2 1 0

A lot of Orbรกn's American fans are saying that this election proved he was never an authoritarian in the first place.

This is completely wrong โ€” and, in fact, betrays a complete misunderstanding of both Hungarian politics and modern authoritarianism.

Here's why.

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If you take into consideration V-Dem's confidence intervals, Sweden and the US had the same quality of democracy for most of the last 36 years, with the exception of the early 2000s and the Trump era.

3 days ago 5 5 1 0

Showing a .tex file from 2018 to students:

"biblatex and natbib are both loaded in the preamble, a reminder of the handcrafted imperfections of the artist"

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Every album post-Kid A is better than The Bends and Ok Computer.

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I will start turning in scanned handwritten manuscripts to signal my LLM-free brilliance.

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If you take into consideration V-Dem's confidence intervals, Sweden and the US had the same quality of democracy for most of the last 36 years, with the exception of the early 2000s and the Trump era.

3 days ago 5 5 1 0

Showing a .tex file from 2018 to students:

"biblatex and natbib are both loaded in the preamble, a reminder of the handcrafted imperfections of the artist"

3 days ago 29 5 1 0
Preview
Radio Sweden Weekly: Citizenship changes to be discussed by MPs | Radio Sweden | Sveriges Radio This coming Tuesday, the government's citizenship bill will be examined by a parliamentary committee which will then take a position on the reforms.

Today, I participated in Radio Sweden Weekly discussing the government's proposed law change that will block refugees from being able to get permanent residence in Sweden, and what impact it could have on potential migration flows in the future ๐Ÿ‘‡

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"As I mentioned in the draft I circulated, which I am sure most of you have read"

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In Swedish, torp means this style of cottage.

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The Politics of Aspiration: Ideology as a Luxury Good in Occupational Choice

Turgut Keskintรผrk
April, 2026

[followed by the abstract, which can be accessed via the PDF.]

The Politics of Aspiration: Ideology as a Luxury Good in Occupational Choice Turgut Keskintรผrk April, 2026 [followed by the abstract, which can be accessed via the PDF.]

a new working paper, where I show that political ideology significantly shapes occupational preferences in early adulthood, a result far stronger among people from higher socioeconomic backgrounds.

work-in-progress right here: tkeskinturk.github.io/aspirations.pdf

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This is similar to what we find in our recent study on which countries people want their government to learn from. China ranks in the middle but still comes out ahead of the United States, pointing to shifting perceptions of the two powers.

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"As I mentioned in the draft I circulated, which I am sure most of you have read"

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My old job was very international. You could see how culture shaped behaviors by watching the lunchroom. 11.45 to 12.30 -- only Swedes. By 14.00 the whole lunch room was speaking Spanish.

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Happy Surrender and Freedom Day! On April 9, 1865, Robert E. Lee and the Army of Northern Virginia surrendered to Ulysses S. Grant and the Army of the Potomac. home.nps.gov/apco/planyou...

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My old job was very international. You could see how culture shaped behaviors by watching the lunchroom. 11.45 to 12.30 -- only Swedes. By 14.00 the whole lunch room was speaking Spanish.

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I also wrote a paper that is too powerful to be released to the public.

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A grouped bar chart titled "Europeans Increasingly See the US as a Threat," comparing the percentage of people in six European countries who viewed the USA as unfriendly or hostile in July 2023 (light blue bars) versus January 2026 (red bars). The data, sourced from YouGov, shows a marked increase across all surveyed nations: Italy increased from 17% to 27%, France from 18% to 30%, Germany from 14% to 41%, Great Britain from 6% to 35%, Spain from 15% to 48%, and Denmark saw the largest increase from 6% to 65%.

A grouped bar chart titled "Europeans Increasingly See the US as a Threat," comparing the percentage of people in six European countries who viewed the USA as unfriendly or hostile in July 2023 (light blue bars) versus January 2026 (red bars). The data, sourced from YouGov, shows a marked increase across all surveyed nations: Italy increased from 17% to 27%, France from 18% to 30%, Germany from 14% to 41%, Great Britain from 6% to 35%, Spain from 15% to 48%, and Denmark saw the largest increase from 6% to 65%.

In July 2023, only 6% of Danes thought the US was unfriendly or hostile towards Europe. In January 2026, that jumped to 65% of Danes.

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๐Ÿ“ข Call for Papers โ€“ EUI PEARL PhD & Postdoc Workshop

The Florence Political Economy Applied Research Lab is hosting a two-day workshop at the European University Institute.

June 8โ€“9, 2026.

We'd love to see your work!
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Three 2-year Postdoctoral positions at Aarhus University: Projects on personality cults and strategic communication in autocracies - Vacancy at Aarhus University Vacancy at Department of Political Science, Aarhus University

Three 2-year full-time postdoctoral positions in autocratic politics at the Department of Political Science at Aarhus University (in connection to projects headed by Jakob Tolstrup and Alexander Baturo). Flexible start date. Application deadline: June 1, 2026.
international.au.dk/about/profil...

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Job vacancy announcement for a postdoctoral position at the University of Vienna Department of Government, starting August/September 2026. Research focus includes political representation, party competition, political institutions, political economy, political behavior, or related fields. Application deadline: 29 April 2026. Full details are also available through the shared link.

Job vacancy announcement for a postdoctoral position at the University of Vienna Department of Government, starting August/September 2026. Research focus includes political representation, party competition, political institutions, political economy, political behavior, or related fields. Application deadline: 29 April 2026. Full details are also available through the shared link.

๐Ÿšจ Job Alert ๐Ÿšจ

We have an opening for a ๐—ฃ๐—ผ๐˜€๐˜๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐—ฐ ๐—ฃ๐—ผ๐˜€๐—ถ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ผ๐—ป @stawi-univie.bsky.social starting Aug/Sep 2026!

Focus: political representation, party competition, political institutions, political economy, political behavior, or related fields

๐Ÿ“…Apply by 29 April 2026

jobs.univie.ac.at/job/Universi...

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๐Ÿšจ New WP ๐Ÿ“„ (w/ @muzhou-zhang.bsky.social and @winniexia.bsky.social )

We ask which countries people in ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ด think their governments should learn from and show:

1) Citizens have clear favorites (Nordics top)

2) Performance info shifts what they prefer and how they explain it

Comments welcome!

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A man sitting at a working desk, in 1540 setting, with a drinking cup, a few books, a writing desk with paper sheets, and lots of more details.

A man sitting at a working desk, in 1540 setting, with a drinking cup, a few books, a writing desk with paper sheets, and lots of more details.

Working the morning shift as a scholar in 1540, a browser tab and a word document opened on two screens, other needed texts opened and handy, an overfull mail account nearby, and a hot beverage in reach to make for the best working condition. Bonus: wearing a thinking hat. #academicchatter

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