Warsh’s diagnosis of the Fed’s problems isn’t that it has interest rates wrong. Rather he believes the institution’s entire way of seeing the world since the financial crisis is wrong. That isn’t fixed, in his mind, by getting interest rates a quarter-point higher or lower. Rather, it is fixed by coming into the Fed and showing to the market and the public that a new sheriff is in town.

My take on the Warsh hearing: Prepare for regime change.

For all the pushback he got from the Senate, there was very little questioning of his core premise that the Fed has failed at its core mission. www.cnbc.com/2026/04/21/k...

Warsh also makes an overture to the Fed's staff, after saying last year he would need to "break some heads": "If confirmed, I will seek to create an environment in which the best people can do their life’s best work."

Kevin Warsh in his opening statement says, "The Fed
should not act..as an appellate court for matters that are rightly debated and decided elsewhere." This reads like a reference to Lisa Cook. He told me last year that it was appropriate for courts, not Fed officials, to weigh the merits of the case

With his penchant for suits, ties and sweater vests, Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh doesn’t share the rumpled look of many of the Silicon Valley entrepreneurs he calls friends. But they still count him as one of their own. “You wouldn’t be hanging out with us if you were as normal as you claim to be,” Palantir CEO Alex Karp told Warsh on a podcast in 2022. If confirmed by the Senate, Warsh wouldn’t just be the wealthiest Fed chair in history, he would also be the most tech-savvy and the closest to the tech-bro community to ever sit in the office. Warsh’s connection to Karp and other titans of Silicon Valley such as reclusive PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel, Yahoo founder Jerry Yang and prominent venture capitalist Marc Andreessen go back decades — to college at Stanford and to investments made alongside some of them beginning soon after Warsh resigned as a Fed governor in 2011.

Kevin Warsh ran a tech-focused VC fund for 15 years and counts Peter Thiel, Marc Andreessen and Alex Karp among his friends. No wonder he's an AI evangelist.

@steveliesman.bsky.social and I wrote on what it would mean to have the first tech bro Fed chair. www.cnbc.com/2026/04/20/f...

I think you’re right. I thought there were ships in the PG, but I can’t find any evidence of it.

So What Is the Real Oil Price Right Now? For all my reporting life, I’ve dreaded one question: What is the price of oil — the real one? Invariably asked during a crisis, it demands a neat answer, a precise dollar-per-barrel figure. But each ...

Great explainer by @javierblas.bsky.social on the various prices of oil. Upshot: US physical prices will rise as a wave of tankers taps into what is currently a cheap market, but that will balance higher Asian prices. Overall futures accurately reflect a falling average price over next few months.

Behind Trump’s Public Bravado on the War, He Grapples With His Own Fears The president’s impulsive style has never been tested in a sustained military conflict, and he’s been ruminating on Jimmy Carter’s failure in Iran.

"Trump screamed at aides for hours" on Good Friday after he learned that two US airmen were missing.

"Aides kept the president out of the room as they got minute-by-minute updates because they believed his impatience wouldn’t be helpful"

"He even mused he should award himself...the Medal of Honor"

HORMUZ TRACKER: Widespread U-Turns Take Place Amid Iran Warning Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz briefly surged early Saturday before collapsing as Iran warned shipping in the area that the corridor was closed to maritime traffic once again. A broadcast, hear...

Bloomberg: "A total of 12 commercial ships completed successful outbound transits on Saturday morning London time, before it became clear that Iran was halting transits again. At least half of those that did get out had links to Iran."

Wasn't the blockade supposed to stop those Iran-linked ships?

Merchant vessels report gunfire as they attempt to cross Hormuz, shipping sources say At least ​two merchant ‌vessels said they were ​hit by ​gunfire as they ⁠attempted ​to cross the ​Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, ​three ​maritime security and shipping ‌sources ⁠said.

Merchant vessels report gunfire as they attempt to cross Hormuz, shipping sources say reut.rs/3QLIUJa

Tom Waits put out a new song??? And it’s a protest song with Massive Attack?!

Jeanine Pirro pursues Fed pressure while clock ticks on her appeal in Powell probe The U.S. attorney for the District of Columbia has yet to file a planned appeal to a judge's ruling quashing her subpoenas to the Federal Reserve.

New from me: Jeanine Pirro has until May 4 to file an appeal in the Fed investigation. She believes she can continue to investigate the Fed in the meantime, but at some point, she needs to turn up some actual evidence. She has yet to show any in public.

www.cnbc.com/2026/04/15/f...

For sure

I don't know that Warsh and Bessent are on the same page about the Fed presidents, fwiw. Warsh has talked about trying to get them not to duplicate research. The hints of more drastic action come from Bessent & co.

Yep

Fed nominee Warsh filings detail vast wealth, far exceeding past chairs Kevin Warsh, nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, detailed his holdings in newly released financial disclosures.

Kevin Warsh's financials are out. My quick math puts his personal wealth in the range of $100m-$200m just in terms of what's directly disclosed in the filings. There are many asterisks. His wife Jane Lauder has her own significant holdings. We're digging into this. www.cnbc.com/2026/04/14/f...

Kpler, the widely followed ship-tracking firm, estimates there were 14 crossings of the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. Again, not close to 34.

DJT Truth Social post: "34 34 Ships went through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, which is by far the highest number since this foolish closure began. President DONALD J. TRUMP."

LSEG Shipping data show 12 transits of the Strait of Hormuz yesterday (US EST). There were 33 total over the whole weekend, per LSEG shipping, including some ships that did round trips.

This is an imprecise count, and other providers will have different figures. But it isn't close to 34.

U.S. Threat to Blockade Hormuz Sets Up Risky New Showdown The move sets off a high-stakes war of attrition that will test who has the higher threshold for pain—Tehran or global markets.

"'The de-escalation window for the global economy, such as it was, is over for now,' said @reziemba.bsky.social... 'Iran is betting they can hold out longer than the U.S. and the global economy.'"

The Goal of the Iran Blockade Iran is a gas station masquerading as a country - time to shut down the gas station

"As Iran’s oil exports collapse, there’ll be no cash for imports, so activity implodes, the currency goes into a devaluation spiral and hyperinflation ensues. Had we done this for Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, I’m pretty confident we wouldn’t still be watching that war grind on."

And if we must escalate the fight, the United States has an ace up its sleeve: Kharg Island. Iran’s massive oil processing installation is its No. 1 strategic asset, and therefore our No. 1 strategic target. Kharg Island represents over 90% of Iran’s oil distribution, 60% of its revenue, and 50% of the budget. If the war resumes and after we degrade Iran’s remaining military assets sufficiently, the US military could choose to occupy Kharg — or to destroy it. Alternatively, the US Navy could set up a blockade, shutting down Tehran’s export lifeline. If we preserve Kharg’s infrastructure but take physical control, we’d have a chokehold over Iran’s oil and its economy. That’s the ultimate leverage we’d need to seize its “nuclear dust,” or stores of enriched uranium, and to eliminate its enrichment facilities.

Just speculating but Trump's blockade plan sounds a like lot what Fox News analyst Jack Keane described in a New York Post op-ed last week: Cut off Iran's oil exports with a naval blockade. nypost.com/2026/04/09/o...

I am eager to see if Kevin Warsh's financial disclosures show holdings in Palantir. He led Stan Druckenmiller's early investments in the company. They were involved for more than a decade. Warsh has been open about this, but we don't know the current financial relationship.

Yes

Pirro's Powell probe faces a difficult road to appeal, former prosecutors say Federal Reserve chair nominee Kevin Warsh may be in limbo while the legal process plays out.

I spoke briefly to Jeanine Pirro today. She insists she plans to move ahead with her appeal in the Powell investigation, though it hasn't been filed yet and it isn't clear when it will be. Former prosecutors told me she has a tough road ahead. Bottom line: There's still no path to a quick resolution

Something like 10% of global oil production has been shut in. That flow can’t be turned on again like a light switch. Even if the war is over today, it will likely be months at best before we get back to something resembling normal.

JPMorgan research note: "The Supreme Leader no longer appears to sit at the apex of the system, while the IRGC has become more empowered... Any effort to force regime change would likely produce state failure rather than a stable political transition... There are no signs of capitulation."

That is all, go back to your Saturdays.

How this all gets resolved is anyone's guess. A lot of analysts assume Trump and the DOJ will find an excuse to drop the case.

If not, there is an unlikely but possible scenario where Tillis holds out until after the election, and the Iran war tips the Senate to Dems.

What happens to Warsh? 🤷

Meanwhile there's a big change going on at the DOJ! Trump fired Pam Bondi on Thursday. In theory, that could be an opportunity for new leadership to drop the Powell case. But as of today, the DOJ insists it won't. Jeanine Pirro has a long, independent relationship with Trump.

In track two, Trump is moving ahead with trying to get Warsh confirmed. With a hearing date of April 16, there would seem to be plenty of time to get Warsh confirmed at the Fed ahead of the next rate decision on June 17.

Of course, that won't happen if Tillis continues to block Warsh's confirmation

Whether there's a strategy here, I don't know. But we have two processes moving in parallel tracks.

In one, Trump and the DOJ are pushing their allegations against Powell. He is confident the Fed can not only withstand that, but that Powell can remain in charge even after his term expires May.