pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...

It's hard out here for a rogue methodologist ninja. Wrote a new proof; no constituency. Known CSAM scanning: this could work. Unknown content scanning: this backfires, undermining child safety. EU just sunsetted the former. Trilogues continue on the latter.

wildetruth.substack.com/p/an-inconve...

There is some evidence for consuming about 6 dates/day from the 3rd trimester making labor faster and easier, hypothesized mechanism having to do with a chemical in dates that looks like oxytocin so the uterus builds more oxytocin receptors that get activates when the system floods with it for birth

Oh YeS oH yEs

Roses are red
eggs are dyed
hide and hide
find and seek
eek grin eek!!

Oh yes oh yes

Roses are red
violets are blue
hyacinths are smelly
spring is, too!

The Maccabeats - Dayenu - Passover - דיינו YouTube video by Maccabeats

Older child realized we forgot to open the door last night for Eliyahu and opened it for him this morning before we walked to Kita in bright bunny ears singing Dayenu, and if anyone needs me I will be playing this on repeat until the baby begs me to stop.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZgD...

Mitchell's great. I reviewed *Free Agents* alongside Sapolsky's *Determined*, and came away thinking both are doing something more like secular theology than science (in an interesting way). If you want a skeptic's take on both: wildetruth.substack.com/p/book-reviews-free-agents-and-determined

-- except through simulation, leaps on leaps, factoring in heaps of uncertainty and caveating that this thing is gestural like any other hypothetical estimated outcome spread -- I don't know and would love to know what others think.

I think we need to be decomposing causal effects along these different pathways (test classification, strategy, information, and resource reallocation), in order to know if the costs of the test are necessary or if we could get the benefits along other pathways in other ways. But how to do that --

Thank you! Yeah nah, one can't. The assumption is conditional independence given measured time-varying covariates, handled via inverse probability weighting. Braitmaier et al are explicit that unmeasured time-varying confounders would violate this. Untestable but weaker than full independence.

Wow this is an impressive article from @verawil.de that I highly recommend. One question-how can one get away with "artificially censored at the moment her actual behavior diverges from the assigned strategy" without making some kind of severe independent censoring assumption? #StatsSky #EpiSky

Yo dawg heard you like worrying about the implications of Bayes rule in mass screenings for low-prevalence problems. But have you tried worrying about intention-to-treat vs per-protocol estimates? Let's frolic thru the latest in target trial emulation!

wildetruth.substack.com/p/its-the-an...

Hash-matching for known child sexual abuse material (CSAM), aka Chat Control 1.0: doable ✓
Mass AI scanning for unknown CSAM/ Chat Control 2.0: not ✗

Privacy advocates: 😭 mass AI scanning can work?!
Child safety advocates: 😭 mass AI scanning can't work?!
Me: yes, these are different problems

Updated my working paper "When Mass Security Screening Backfires" with a formal proof (§5.4) showing why hash-matching of known CSAM is resource-tractable, while mass AI scanning for unknown CSAM is mathematically intractable at scale, regardless of how good the classifier gets.
tinyurl.com/twf538y3

Right. They fall in love but don't wind up committing suicide/hospitalized with THAT delusion...

Is love missing because science, wealth, and the divine push it out in the modern psyche as sources of possible transcendence?

Or... is it missing because the love-seeking subgroup gets what they need from the AI more without going off the deep end? (Remaining... uncommitted, medically speaking?)

(In Ezekiel, a prophet is addressed by divine machinery too vast to comprehend, a steampunk precursor to Madeleine L'Engle's cherabim of eyes, wings, and flames)

These are... the same pathology? I am so special, I am beloved. But without human love represented in the mix!

Strange.

A support group for AI-induced psychosis finds 3 delusions recur (nicknames my own):
1. The Frankenstein delusion - I've created life (consciousness)
2. The Napoleon Hill delusion - I'm going to get rich
3. The Ezekiel delusion — I've been chosen (Ezekiel 1)
www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle...

me at 3 a.m.

Oh hey Bayesian search is the right tool for the closed universe searches job, no? I mean if you know there's a crime-specific true positive among the false, and have secondary investigative ways of winnowing (tuning parameter optimization)

lol most of the replies to this are basically “you sweet naive child, you think 30 open tabs is a lot”

Imagine there’s no endogeneity
It’s easy if you try
No hidden selection bias
No omitted reasons why
Imagine all the scatterplots
Meaning what they show

In a low stakes, artificial factorial experiment employers do not discriminate against immigrants.
But when it is about actually hiring people, employers do prefer applicants with German-sounding names in the same experimental choice set.

Mahler's 5th Symphony - Full Performance by the Berlin Philharmonic Orchestra YouTube video by Music For all times

I am told this Berlin Philharmonic version of Mahler's Symphonie No. 5 was performed entirely without sheet music, as is conductor Gustavo Dudamel's wont.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=5J5x...

A new crypto paper shows how to evade mass AI scanning for child sexual abuse images (CSAM) during ongoing EU policy debates about different implementations of such scanning.

Science should serve the public interest, and this doesn't.

wildetruth.substack.com/p/when-secur...

don't even, my stepdad called me middle-aged recently and I was hurt until I realized HE WAS RIGHT

Readings on the affect effect & description-experience gap; and redesigning my risk literacy app following feedback from brilliant risk literacy folks at Charité.

German compound word power shines light in the darkness!

wildetruth.substack.com/p/old-rarity
verawilde.github.io/rarity-roule...

Oh yes German compound word creator oh yes necessary www.yeschat.ai/gpts-9t55R6R...

I give you: Schimmerhoffnungsverzweiflung

(an oddly hopeful despair)

or (metaphorically): Schönheitstodschmetterling

(beautiful death butterfly)

writers: can you believe some venues don’t even pay you for publishing with them

academics:

Meanwhile, in the corner at a "just add Bayes!" party...