From the Archives | The United States’ Position in Africa - Orbis On Solid Ground or Shifting Sand? By Amb. Charles A. Ray Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began on February 24, 2022, sent  shock waves around the world, including in sub-Saharan Africa.  There the...

When reading Charles Ray's piece, one has to ask whether the current #Hormuz crisis and long-term impacts of the closure and disruption will cause a re-evaluation of the importance of Africa to a number of U.S. geopolitical and geoeconomic goals. orbisjournal.org/the-united-s...

From the Archives | Russian Strategic Narratives 2022-2023 - Orbis Olena Snigyr The failure of the Russian blitzkrieg plan in the 2022 full-scale invasion  of Ukraine heightened official Russian rhetoric to such an extent that  narratives surfaced clearly—devoid of a...

beyond the conclusion of the Russian-Ukrainian war, as long as the current Russian political regime remains in place. 3/ orbisjournal.org/from-the-arc...

and as a leader spearheading a global movement against Western hegemony. The war in Ukraine is framed as an integral part of this broader global confrontation. Consequently, the antagonistic posture of the Russian government toward Western countries is likely to persist ...2/

After reading Phil's piece, important how it tracks with what @olenasnigyr.bsky.social concluded four years ago in #Orbis:
"Russia positions itself as a staunch adversary of the liberal world, represented by the West. It portrays Russia both as a victim of Western actions ... 1/

this creates conditions for @radiofreetom.bsky.social's "Night of the Condor" scenario, especially if paired with the politics of envy/resentment. Also needs to be a wakeup call for governors and mayors ... global events have #hyperlocal / #doorstep impacts, so building resiliency is key. 2/

Listening today to the Dan Yorke Show (@billbartholomew.bsky.social producing), with a confirmation of the #prosperity_legitimacy_equation : growing numbers of Americans think that the "American Dream" is no longer attainable. Combine this with the energy/commodity shock of #Hormuz, ... 1/

Disrupted supply chains, divided politics - Asia Times | South Shore Consulting James Davis in Asia Times on developments in Ukraine, noting: 1) The situation along the frontlines of the Russia-Ukraine war has not changed dramatically over the past week, as early spring conditio...

Even in the 21st century warfare still is dependent on weather and the seasons … from a point James Davis makes here … www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

Japan's efforts to cope with energy disruptions: www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

Combine this technology with what Flux Marine and REGENT are working on, and having a distributed set of mobile nuclear reactors for energy (per recommendations of Adrian Gvosdev Kranz) and you begin…... Combine this technology with what Flux Marine and REGENT are working on, and having a distributed set of mobile nuclear reactors for energy (per recommendations of Adrian Gvosdev Kranz) and you begin ...

From such combinations of new and emerging technologies possible revolutions in military affairs can occur ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

As wars throttle gas, Japan is embracing nuclear The country is rapidly moving to restart reactors as artificial intelligence increases electricity demand and foreign wars choke gas supplies.

Amazing statistic: "prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could reduce Japan’s GDP by up to 3 percent this year, in large part due to reductions in natural gas supply and corresponding increases in electricity prices." www.politico.com/news/2026/04...

‘Every dollar counts’: McKee pushes to repeal 2-cent gas tax hike as prices skyrocket Gov. Dan McKee touted his plan Wednesday to reverse last year’s gas tax increase as Rhode Islanders grapple with rising fuel costs.

As @billbartholomew.bsky.social and I predicted, global #geoeconomic trends impact the #hyperlocal, as RI governor now indicates he wants to repeal a gas tax increase ... www.wpri.com/news/politic...

Continued reminder to carefully vet any information you see on social media, especially if you are making investment or business decisions. We have seen in the last two hours contradictory reports… | ... Continued reminder to carefully vet any information you see on social media, especially if you are making investment or business decisions. We have seen in the last two hours contradictory reports and...

Endorsing this … reminder to carefully vet information … consider not reposting things if you dont know or cannot verify the provenance of information. www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

Wars and Pipelines | Nikolas Gvosdev One of the drivers for the Abraham Accords and of the larger #IndoAbrahamic corridor as outlined by Mohammed Soliman was to create the intermodal linkages between the west coast of the Persian Gulf wi...

Does the current crisis jumpstart more #IndoAbrahamic corridor projects? www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

From the Archives | The Global Order After Ukraine - Orbis As Russia’s invasion in Ukraine enters its second year, how is the  global system continuing to evolve and change? How is the balance of  power and influence shifting? And what might be some of the un...

— and in some cases replacing—regular armed forces." 2/
orbisjournal.org/from-the-arc...

It is worth revisiting this 2023 @fpri.bsky.social #Orbis essay from Kiron Skinner and Alma Kesharvaz about lessons to be learned from the Wagner Group and the IRGC "how paramilitary forces can help states impose greater costs and losses on their enemies by reinforcing ...1/

One day after the new waiver, and there have been Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refining and export infrastructure. We caution, however, that dramatic footage (particularly of fires/black… | ... One day after the new waiver, and there have been Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refining and export infrastructure. We caution, however, that dramatic footage (particularly of fires/black smo...

A good reminder ... dramatic footage does not translate into accurate battle damage reporting ... www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

The Viktoriya Bonya critique confirms what James Davis has been reporting on changing sentiments inside Russia -- and why her commentary is resonating. https://lnkd.in/efzuYaXg | Nikolas Gvosdev The Viktoriya Bonya critique confirms what James Davis has been reporting on changing sentiments inside Russia -- and why her commentary is resonating. https://lnkd.in/efzuYaXg

The Bonya critique builds on growing criticisms of how the Putin administration is handling both the Ukraine war and domestic problems ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

Something we discussed two weeks ago in the Harvard Extension Evolution of Nuclear Deterrence course …

For more on the #palacepolitics perspective in national security decision making, consult: www.cambridge.org/highereducat...

We are not surprised that despite many public statements over the last few days that the United States would not renew sanctions waivers for Russian oil, that after the close of business Friday… | Sou... We are not surprised that despite many public statements over the last few days that the United States would not renew sanctions waivers for Russian oil, that after the close of business Friday evenin...

Quiet renewal of sanctions waiver on Russian oil ... www.linkedin.com/posts/souths...

Yes, international law recognizes the legality of tolls for human-constructed infrastructure ... but for naturally-occurring passages in international waters, not so much.

Russia After Putin - Foreign Policy Research Institute Vladimir Putin, 73, has been Russia’s leader for over a quarter of a century and the driving force behind Moscow’s efforts to reassert control over its former

could threaten the stability of the regime, and would be incompatible with Russia’s self-image as a superpower. These factors are likely to take precedence over either world peace or a better economy." 2/ www.fpri.org/article/2026...

And at @fpri.bsky.social Philip Wasielewski notes: "Whoever replaces Putin will have limited options to improve Russia’s international and economic situations because to do so requires compromises that are unacceptable to most Russians, ... 1/

The Era of Free Seas Is Unraveling—and Now Everyone’s Going to Pay | Nikolas Gvosdev Gabriel Collins has identified another tollbooth in the Baltic, and both Canada and Russia could use these precedents in the High North. Hunter Stires is absolutely right … once you pull on the thread...

www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

Saudi finance minister expressing concern about gap between perception and reality on oil prices … expectation of ample future supply alongside real present squeeze …

Given the gap between statements and on the ground realities, and the uncertainties that occur when AIS is turned off or spoofed, we have to rely on physical on the ground evaluation as to whether… | ... Given the gap between statements and on the ground realities, and the uncertainties that occur when AIS is turned off or spoofed, we have to rely on physical on the ground evaluation as to whether shi...

When it comes to reports about movement through #Hormuz I am in the “trust but verify” camp …
www.linkedin.com/posts/given-...

From the Archives | The Global Order After Ukraine - Orbis As Russia’s invasion in Ukraine enters its second year, how is the  global system continuing to evolve and change? How is the balance of  power and influence shifting? And what might be some of the un...

This was part of the @FPRI @NunnSchoolGT #Orbis 2023 symposium on global order after Ukraine ... 2/ orbisjournal.org/from-the-arc...

From the Archives | The Global Order After Ukraine - Orbis | Nikolas Gvosdev Back in 2023 for Foreign Policy Research Institute #Orbis Jeff Colgan asked whether "Russia may be prepared to ramp up energy exports to Asian customers, especially China, to compensate for the loss o...

Looks like @jeffcolgan.bsky.social predictions about Russia's efforts to pivot energy exports to Asia back in 2023 are turning true ... 1/ www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...

In the relaunched #Orbis @kschake.bsky.social asks whether the U.S. is on a path to "hegemonic suicide" ...

How ironic--we talked about this in my nuclear deterrence class on Monday! (The Reagan-Gorbachev meeting, not the film)