New paper with Martha Johnson in APSR (@apsrjournal.bsky.social)😀 — Open Access 🎉📄

lnkd.in/eEPUxdi8

1) Terrorism ≠ rally effects.

2) Do women leaders face unique crisis penalties? No evidence.

3) Event-during-survey → trends matter ⚠️

For years, but especially in the last few months, I have been trying hard to imagine what it will feel like seeing Orban decisively defeated. I just couldn't. And yet here we are: it is truly and well over. I have more reservations about Peter Magyar than I could say in 300 characters or a thread...

This 💯 👇

Now Tisza projected at 138 seats against 54 of Orban’s Fidesz. If these numbers are confirmed, this is a larger victory than Orbàn’s 2010 landslide, which allowed him to change the 🇭🇺Constitution and start backsliding towards an illiberal democracy. A historic day.

This is most certainly true. Orban had paralyzed (European) Council politics wherever unanimity ruled — and tried to exert influence beyond by threatening vetos on key unanimity issues (eg Ukraine). This will change. It will not be dramatic, but significant.

Orbán declared defeat

HUGE: TISZA/democratic opposition headed for a historic win against autocratic Fidesz/Orban, despite electoral tampering/gov't controlled media. THIS, not Brexit, is a real "liberation day!"

BUT: we've learned from Poland that restoring democracy takes more than election. More on that this week...

‼️ ‼️ Orban has congratulated Magyar!

bsky.app/profile/gabr...

Supermajority? 🙃

Tisza now at 132 seats, one seat away from supermajority.

An Wiener Universitäten gibt es jede Menge Wissenschaftler:innen, die wegen Orban Ungarn verlassen mussten. ES GIBT SOGAR EINE GANZE UNIVERSITÄT, DIE WEGEN ORBAN UNGARN VERLASSEN HAT. Warum lädt man da niemand ein? False balancing par excellence.

It's the magic 39% (or sometimes 38%) for Trump again. He cannot go below it - no matter what he does. And, this should be very concerning for everyone.

🇭🇺‼️ What seems clear - Tisza has delivered a strong parliamentary majority

Less clear - whether they can get to a 2/3 supermajority

This is a great sign. Looks like the Orban regime is finally going down today. He has tilted the playing field heavily in his own favor and will try vote buying schemes, but a big enough wave of support for the opposition can overcome all that…

The second sentence is just unbelievable 🥺.

Expert_innen schlagen Alarm: Mit der neuen Bundesstaatsanwaltschaft könnten Parteien mehr Einfluss auf die Justiz gewinnen. Klar ist: Die Justiz muss unabhängig ermitteln können. Unterzeichne die @aufstehn.at -Petition für eine unabhängige Bundesstaatsanwaltschaft:
aktion.aufstehn.at/s/fwnisdGM

Look, I know why we co-author 🤗

Anymore views on this? Thanks to everyone engaging 🙏

🤓
@chriswratil.bsky.social and I just discussed survey experiment design. Which option is better?

A: treatment -> mechanism -> DV
B: treatment -> DV -> mechanism

I.e. measure mechanisms before or after the DV? We recently heard conflicting takes... What do you think is better? And why?

thanks!

Do apply to this six-year research and teaching position! Apart from teaching two classes a term, you should have ample time to focus on your research goals as part of an international department in a great (and affordable) city.

Job vacancy announcement for a postdoctoral position at the University of Vienna Department of Government, starting August/September 2026. Research focus includes political representation, party competition, political institutions, political economy, political behavior, or related fields. Application deadline: 29 April 2026. Full details are also available through the shared link.

🚨 Job Alert 🚨

We have an opening for a 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝘁𝗱𝗼𝗰 𝗣𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 @stawi-univie.bsky.social starting Aug/Sep 2026!

Focus: political representation, party competition, political institutions, political economy, political behavior, or related fields

📅Apply by 29 April 2026

jobs.univie.ac.at/job/Universi...

Tabelle „Beschäftigungsverhältnisse an Universitäten nach Verwendung und Befristung, Wintersemester 2022“. Insgesamt 67.499 Beschäftigte, davon 43.494 (64,4 %) befristet und 24.005 (35,6 %) unbefristet. Im wissenschaftlichen und künstlerischen Personal sind 37.672 von 47.246 Stellen (79,7 %) befristet, besonders hoch bei Universitätsassistent:innen (91,3 %), Projektmitarbeiter:innen (96,5 %) und Lektor:innen (96,9 %). Allgemeines Personal ist überwiegend unbefristet (71,3 %).

Tabelle „Beschäftigungsverhältnisse an Universitäten nach Verwendung und Befristung, Wintersemester 2019“. Insgesamt 63.676 Beschäftigte, davon 40.707 (63,9 %) befristet und 22.969 (36,1 %) unbefristet. Im wissenschaftlichen und künstlerischen Personal sind 34.611 von 44.053 Stellen (78,6 %) befristet, besonders hoch bei Universitätsassistent:innen (91,7 %), Projektmitarbeiter:innen (95,9 %) und Lektor:innen (96,4 %). Allgemeines Personal ist überwiegend unbefristet (68,9 %).

Befristete Beschäftigungsverhältnisse beim Uni-Personal:
Uni-Bericht 2023: 37.672 (79,7 %)
Uni-Bericht 2020: 34.611 (78,6 %)

+3.061 befristete Beschäftigungsverhältnisse
+1,1 Prozentpunkte

Wachstum weiterhin vor allem im (prekären) Projektbereich, der Flaschenhals wird weiter enger. #IchBinHanna

Finally accurate self-analysis from the U.S. admin of where they are taking their country

Oh, yes, I didn’t get it „you even have to „hit them EXTREMELY hard“ for it to work 👏.

Of course, you are going to „bring them back to the Stone Age, where they belong“, you will „hit them very hard“, and then peace will emerge — within 2-3 weeks. This is how this „war“ thingy works, obviously. 🙄

FOUR GRAPHS ABOUT 🇩🇰'S GENERAL ELECTION

My read of the election in four graphs. First: big urban-rural divide. The two big mainstream parties, Social Democrats and Liberals, are now mainly rural/suburban, with niche parties dominating in cities. (1/4) #polisky

SciLove — Discover new research on the go A personalized feed of the latest peer-reviewed papers — swipe to save, skip, and make connections in minutes a day.

Also finding it hard to keep up with new research? I built something to fix this.

SciLove — swipe through recent papers in your field. The feed learns from your saves. Also matches you with researchers saving your work back (opt-out if you prefer).

www.scilove.app

3,000+ journals, updated daily

Are you a policymaker, teacher, practitioner, academic in political science, psychology, education or related field? We’re inviting experts to complete a short survey on youth political participation: tinyurl.com/ywnseae3

For every completion, we’ll donate €1.20 to UNICEF. Please share!

Some good background on the upcoming Hungarinan elections. "For the first time, the regime is asking voters to tolerate autocracy and rampant corruption without delivering rising living standards in return."

Without having seen any data on this, I just assumed that Greens were already squeezed in 2021 (compared to 2016) to keep Malu Dreyer in. Hence, the idea of 8% being core voters makes sense — intuitively.