Next multi-day severe & locally heavy rain episode appears more Ozarks/S. Plains centered, rather than Midwest.

Any seismologists out there ever issue a weather forecast? #askingforafriend 😆

Perhaps a cool end to April and kickoff of May in the eastern 2/3 of the U.S.? 🤔

Planning your summer travel?

Here are 3 tips I have based on the latest long-range outlooks. One of these may surprise you, coming from a meteorologist.

Over 750 reports of severe weather (t-storm wind damage, gusts, large hail, reports of tornadoes) since Monday AM.

Today may be the most active day of the week's siege, unfortunately. But a three-day break is ahead starting Sunday.

Same Rachel. Frankly, spring is not my favorite time of year in the Midwest, generally speaking. ;P

Milwaukee will also soon top its record wettest April, certainly by Friday, set 13 years ago. And there's still about 2 weeks left of the month.

With rain early this morning, and more t-storms tomorrow, and possibly some showers that linger past midnight Friday night, that could make 11 straight days with measurable precip in Milwaukee through early Saturday.

That would be their longest since Sept. 1987, tied for 2nd longest all-time.

Baseball-size hail causes widespread damage in Madison area The city took a direct hit from Tuesday evening’s massive hailstorm.

One insurer has already received 1,700 claims of vehicle damage from Tuesday's Madison hailstorm.

There was one report of softball size (4" diameter) #hail near Maple Bluff, WI Tuesday. (NE Madison metro)

Per NOAA's database, the only other occurrence of 4" hail in Dane County dating to 1950 was on July 2, 1960.

One of most damaging hail events in Madison history?

(📸: Kyle Obremski)

When a tropical cyclone's eye engulfs an island, or two.

In this case, Saipan and Tinian.

Quite the precip contrast in 2026.

Record wettest year-to-date in Green Bay, Muskegon, Houghton Lake and Alpena. (Green Bay is over 1" wetter than 1888 pace.)

Driest year-to-date in Raleigh-Durham, Charlottesville, Gainesville. (Gainesville is drier than its 1907 pace).

Data: SERCC

Saipan Int'l Airport has seen frequent gusts of 100+ mph the past 7 hours.

Inner eyewall of Cat. 4 Sinlaku nearing. Their strongest typhoon strike since Yutu in Oct. 2018.

It doesn't have to be "super" to be impactful.

NOAA just assigned ~50/50 chance of a "strong" El Niño by fall.

Uncomfortably close track to Guam possible with "future Sinlaku", potentially as a formidably strong typhoon, by Monday-Tuesday.

(Model gfx kudos: Tomer Burg, Alex Boreham)

The joys of tropical twinning across the Equator today:

- Future Sinlaku in the NW Pacific
- Maila in the SW Pacific (Solomon Sea)

🛰️: CIRA_CSU

This SPC D4-D7 outlook looks like a Venn diagram for spring severe weather in the Plains.

Parts of the I-35 corridor in Texas could see at least some severe threat for at least 4 straight days (maybe longer) beginning Sunday.

Classic spring roller coaster for mid-Atlantic:

- Frost/freeze alerts this AM
- First 90s of the year next week

The "it only takes one" rule applies, as always (Joaquin/Bahamas 2015).

But, in general, what we're expecting in 2026 is what Jeff describes👇

A likely super El Niño ahead, why it's high confidence, and what that could mean into 2027.

weather.com/news/climate...

Driest March on record in California.

Second driest in Colorado, New Mexico.

Oh...and the record March warmth also in NOAA's just-released report.

weather.com/news/climate...

After a brief break, "April is gonna April", with 4-5 straight days of at least level 2-3 severe threat returning to the Plains starting this weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Maila is a rare Cat. 3 near the Solomon Islands.

And, per NOAA's database, it appears to be the only Cat. 3+ in the Solomon Sea, itself, in reliable records dating to 1971.

Image: NOAA/CIRA

Today, April 7, is always a holiday for me.

It was my closest encounter with a tornado in my hometown and a day I decided I wanted to be a meteorologist.

weather.com/news/weather...

The current Florida drought is most expansive "extreme" (D3+) in the 21st century history of the Drought Monitor analysis.

So, unless you're vacationing, there, this week's forecast is probably good news for many: weather.com/forecast/reg...

Can't really top the weather forecast for this year's Masters.

It hasn't always been so nice, especially in recent years.

weather.com/sports-recre...

Yep...having lived in Atlanta for over 16 years, I saw tree damage at much lower than severe wind speed thresholds quite often.

It's one of the most underrated weather dangers, and it doesn't take a tornado or hurricane.

weather.com/science/weat...

The 1974 Tornado Super Outbreak's Lessons Learned | Weather.com It was not only a historic outbreak, but a key moment in the advancement of meteorology.

There are 3 U.S. tornado outbreaks that stand above all others since the late 20th century.

Arguably #1 happened 52 years ago today. And it spurred much-needed change.

Not as intense as last month's Kankakee cell, but we had another long-lived supercell Thursday, this time in eastern Iowa. 126 miles over 2.5 hours.

Tornado count TBD pending NWS surveys.

On another topic, when GIFs preview ok, but then don't animate in final Bluesky post. 🤔