The full monty: Why the Mediterranean pact needs to offer the works – European Council on Foreign Relations Europe’s energy, industrial and migration interests all converge in its southern neighbourhood, where rivals are eroding its influence. The new Pact for the Med

📖 The EU's Pact for the Mediterranean is timely but risks defaulting to short-term deals rather than delivering meaningful regional integration. Its "menu" approach will be more effective if the EU bundles initiatives into comprehensive packages @Tmegrisi.bsky.social 👇️ ecfr.eu/publication/...

Hormuz hold’em: How to stop the US-Iran crisis in the strait – European Council on Foreign Relations If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy cr

If Trump follows through on his threat to bomb Iran’s energy infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to shut down entirely and the catastrophic energy crisis will deepen. Europeans need to push for an urgent and sustainable ceasefire - Ellie Geranmayeh & Jeremy Shapiro

https://bit.ly/4brdqQF

Lebanon on the brink: Europe must act now if it wants to prevent a refugee wave – European Council on Foreign Relations With over a thousand dead and a million displaced, Lebanon is edging toward state collapse. Europe must go beyond humanitarian aid and throw its full weight beh

With over a thousand dead and a million displaced, Lebanon is edging toward state collapse. Europe must go beyond humanitarian aid and throw its full weight behind France’s diplomatic push, writes Kelly Petillo.

Read our latest commentary: https://bit.ly/3Pi7nW5

European countries reject Trump’s call for help to reopen strait of Hormuz Leaders seek a diplomatic solution despite US president’s threat of ‘a very bad future’ for Nato unless it provides warships

After some initial support & ambiguity Europeans now clearly rejecting US efforts to draw them into Iran war.

Question is whether they can play any role pushing parties towards new diplomacy www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

Entire families wiped out and towns emptied as Israel’s war on Lebanon intensifies Communities displaced and destroyed while death toll rises faster than during any previous war in Lebanon

“Batoul & her loved ones were among 773 Lebanese people – including more than 100 children – killed by Israel’s campaign in Lebanon since 2 March. They join a growing list of families completely wiped out by Israeli bombings” www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

Finding an Off-ramp in the Middle East War | International Crisis Group While the U.S. and Israel have damaged Iran in the Middle East war, Tehran has expanded the conflict. With neither side positioned for a decisive win, the escalation risks are sobering. Diplomacy is c...

“price of continued conflict…against regime prepared to set world on fire is too high. Better to end it immediately…then seek to address thorny challenges through renewed diplomacy than risk ever more unmanageable, expanding & perilous war” - @crisisgroup.org www.crisisgroup.org/stm/middle-e...

Who is winning the Middle East war? Iran has taken a beating but it retains the advantages of geography, time and a superior tolerance for pain

“Iranian regime is unlikely to back down because it retains several advantages: geography, time & asymmetry. The longer the war goes on, the greater the cost to everyone else — and the Iranian regime has superior pain tolerance” @emile-hokayem.bsky.social FT piece giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Iran is playing a long game An asymmetric war that brings the global economy to a standstill could exhaust the US and force a ceasefire

“Those in command of Iran today are veterans of asymmetric wars in Iraq & Syria. They are now applying the same strategy to fighting the US on the battlefield of the global economy” - @valinasr.bsky.social on Tehran’s long game strategy giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...

Friends-and-family diplomacy: Lessons for Europe from Gaza and Ukraine – European Council on Foreign Relations Trump’s family and friends are trying—but failing—to broker peace in Gaza, Ukraine and beyond. The network they are building blends diplomacy with profit. Europ

“This private-actor diplomacy has revealed its more dangerous & illuminating consequences in Iran. Reports suggest White House envoys Witkoff & Kushner—meeting Iranian negotiators in Geneva—didn’t grasp the mechanics of the Iran nuclear issue” ecfr.eu/article/frie... @ecfr.eu

Friends-and-family diplomacy: Lessons for Europe from Gaza and Ukraine – European Council on Foreign Relations Trump’s family and friends are trying—but failing—to broker peace in Gaza, Ukraine and beyond. The network they are building blends diplomacy with profit. Europ

Trump’s family and friends are trying—but failing—to broker peace in Gaza, Ukraine and beyond. The network they are building blends diplomacy with profit. Europe needs to find a way to shape the terms, write Julien Barnes-Dacey, @jkobzova.bsky.social and Jim O’Brien.

https://bit.ly/40rJAFu

‘Stunned, sidelined and disunited’: how war in the Middle East paralysed the EU Amid fears the conflict will strengthen Russia, Ursula von der Leyen’s embrace of US-backed regime change already looks like a doomed strategy

‘Stunned, sidelined and disunited’: how war in the Middle East paralysed the EU www.theguardian.com/world/2026/m...

Opinion | Leave the Kurds Out of It

New @nytimes.com piece by my colleague Ellie Geranmayeh on possibility of arming the Kurds to fight Tehran:

“This will most likely backfire terribly — both on the Kurds & other US allies in the region. It could also set in motion nightmare scenario of a civil war” www.nytimes.com/2026/03/11/o...

Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations Too many Europeans are quietly aligning with America and Israel’s war against Iran. Instead, they urgently need to pursue difficult diplomacy to halt a spiralli

It would be strategic lunacy for Europe to support the US/Israeli war on Iran. It is an illegal war that comes with huge costs: regional spillover, higher energy costs, helping Putin in Ukraine. It risks drawing Europe into a new regime change quagmire
ecfr.eu/article/stra...

Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations Too many Europeans are quietly aligning with America and Israel’s war against Iran. Instead, they urgently need to pursue difficult diplomacy to halt a spiralli

Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran
- my new piece with Ellie Geranmayeh @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/stra...

Europe’s View on Operation Epic Fury Developing strong, pragmatic and principled national security and defense policies.

A pleasure to discuss Europe's response to the Iran war with @stevenerlanger.bsky.social on the CNAS Brussels Sprouts podcast with Andrea Kendall-Taylor & @jteurope.bsky.social www.cnas.org/publications...

Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations Too many Europeans are quietly aligning with America and Israel’s war against Iran. Instead, they urgently need to pursue difficult diplomacy to halt a spiralli

Strategic lunacy: Why Europeans must stand up to Trump’s illegal war in Iran
- my new piece with Ellie Geranmayeh @ecfr.eu ecfr.eu/article/stra...

A year after Assad: The search for Syria’s future – European Council on Foreign Relations Syrians are rebuilding their country from the ruins of dictatorship, but progress could stall without a clear vision for the future

For the EU, Syria should be seen as the perfect partner to showcase and advance the opportunities afforded by the new Pact for the Mediterranean, with a wider range of tools that could be quickly deployed by the new DG MENA, writes @jbdacey.bsky.social buff.ly/UK1FDIO

Our collective piece on the regional and global drivers, theatres & implications of the Iran war from across @ecfr.eu, with thread below ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...

A year after Assad: The search for Syria’s future – European Council on Foreign Relations Syrians are rebuilding their country from the ruins of dictatorship, but progress could stall without a clear vision for the future

A little leftfield amid current regional developments but:

A new piece from me on Syria's transition one year since the formation of the transitional government after a series of trips to the country ecfr.eu/article/a-ye... @ecfr.eu

A war with no winners: The costs of US-Israeli aggression on Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no s

US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no side will achieve an easy victory, write colleagues from ECFR's programmes in this 360 degree reaction
ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...

A war with no winners: The costs of US-Israeli aggression on Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no s

Our big @ecfr.eu 360° reaction piece to the Iran conflict, assessing regional & global positioning, risks and implications as the war plays out in devastating fashion across the Middle East - and beyond ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...

A war with no winners: The costs of US-Israeli aggression on Iran – European Council on Foreign Relations US and Israeli strikes on Iran have plunged the Middle East into wider war. Retaliation, regional entanglements and disrupted trade make one outcome clear: no s

Our big @ecfr.eu 360° reaction piece to the Iran conflict, assessing regional & global positioning, risks and implications as the war plays out in devastating fashion across the Middle East - and beyond ecfr.eu/article/a-wa...

Trump’s strikes on Iran are an illegal war of choice—and Europeans should say so – European Council on Foreign Relations As the conflict threatens to escalate, European governments must make an assertive case for diplomacy and prepare for humanitarian catastrophe

New @ecfr.eu: Trump’s strikes on Iran are an illegal war of choice—and Europeans should say so, by Ellie Geranmayeh with a strong list of immediate action for Europeans who need to quickly snap out of passivity & acceptance of this new regional conflict ecfr.eu/article/trum...

Trump’s strikes on Iran are an illegal war of choice—and Europeans should say so – European Council on Foreign Relations As the conflict threatens to escalate, European governments must make an assertive case for diplomacy and prepare for humanitarian catastrophe

New @ecfr.eu: Trump’s strikes on Iran are an illegal war of choice—and Europeans should say so, by Ellie Geranmayeh with a strong list of immediate action for Europeans who need to quickly snap out of passivity & acceptance of this new regional conflict ecfr.eu/article/trum...

Big continued Euro focus on keeping Trump happy & Euros clearly have no time for Tehran, but if, and one hopes not, this really feeds prolonged regional war/internal Iranian conflict with all its destabilising implications, Euros will regret timidity. (Like Trump) Euros just hoping this lands well

Iranian regime horrific but EU’s Kallas coming out here without any line of condemnation/vague pressure on US/Israel which have preemptively provoked regional conflict without immediate threat at moment when Iran had put real concessions on table in ongoing negots

🧵US-Iran talks resumed in Geneva this week. The parallel US military buildup in the Middle East suggests Trump could order imminent strikes against Iran. @ecfr.eu experts comment on the risks, regional reactions, legality of such strikes, and what Europeans should be doing 👇

Dispelling Trump’s dystopia: A European blueprint for Gaza’s renewal – European Council on Foreign Relations Donald Trump’s economic development plan for Gaza highlights the president’s preference for real estate over rights. Europeans and Arab states need to help Pale

📑 NEW @ecfr.eu commentary by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social: Donald Trump’s economic development plan for Gaza highlights the president’s preference for real estate over rights. Europeans and Arab states need to help Palestinians chart their own future 👇 ecfr.eu/article/disp...

New @ecfr.eu by @muhammadshehada.bsky.social:

Trump’s dystopian economic plan will turn Gaza into a real-estate bonanza for oligarchs, obliterating its historic, cultural and social fabric, and herding Palestinian into heavily surveilled gated communities.

t.co/d11lljJPfO

🧵US-Iran talks resumed in Geneva this week. The parallel US military buildup in the Middle East suggests Trump could order imminent strikes against Iran. @ecfr.eu experts comment on the risks, regional reactions, legality of such strikes, and what Europeans should be doing 👇