9DASHLINE — The South China Sea Code as a test of ASEAN’s agency Written by Dr. Aniello Iannone. Ultimately, the COC’s relevance will depend on whether it can institutionalise guardrails that shape incentives at sea, reduce the frequency and severity of grey-zone e...

"Ultimately the COC’s relevance will depend on whether it can institutionalise guardrails that shape incentives at sea, reduce the frequency and severity of grey-zone encounters and make de-escalation after incidents more predictable" buff.ly/bTnPf4O | by Aniello Iannone

""In recent years, Beijing has shown a clear preference for maintaining the initiative in cross-strait affairs through military, legal, and economic pressure" www.9dashline.com/article/chen... | by Daniel McIntyre

9DASHLINE — Caught off guard? The strategic implications of the Iran war for India Written by Chiara Boldrini. At the international level, India’s carefully cultivated claim to speak on behalf of the Global South is being progressively undermined by its repeated failure to engage substantively with crises that bear directly on the normative principles it has historically espoused.

"India’s carefully cultivated claim to speak on behalf of the Global South is being progressively undermined by its repeated failure to engage substantively with crises that bear directly on the normative principles it has historically espoused" buff.ly/mNqpIvp | by Chiara Boldrini

9DASHLINE — The patriot's paradox: Thailand's withdrawal from MOU 44, cheap nationalism, and elite interests Written by William J. Jones and Dr Thanachate Wisaijorn. Ultimately, the current trajectory presents two distinct interpretations: it may be viewed cynically as a method to advance corporate and elite...

"For Thai political and economic elites to ‘unlock’ oil and gas worth billions of dollars, they would need to solve the sovereignty conundrum and demonstrate political courage." buff.ly/Jm8PFI7 | by William J. Jones and Thanachate Wisaijorn

9DASHLINE — Grey-zone drones: Lessons for Europe from the Indo-Pacific Written by Thijs Stegeman. Europe must communicate clear thresholds and move forward with its own integrated drone defence, or risk allowing Russia’s grey-zone drone activity to become the new normal.

"Europe must communicate clear thresholds and move forward with its own integrated drone defence, or risk allowing Russia’s grey-zone drone activity to become the new normal" buff.ly/UwLKB5S | by Thijs Stegeman

THE NAVIGATOR Welcome to the March edition of The Navigator. Alongside our usual roundup of regional developments, this month we examine a world under pressure: as conflict in the Middle East disrupts energy flows...

The Navigator — March issue out now!

This month:

• Middle East war shocks ripple across the Indo-Pacific
• States juggle energy, trade & security amid tightening constraints

Plus,

Our comprehensive regional roundup

Read here: 9dashline.substack.com/p/the-naviga...

9DASHLINE — What the evolution of China’s Health Silk Road means for the World Health Organisation Written by Paulo Afonso B. Duarte and Anabela Rodrigues Santiago. Through participation, financing, and programme implementation, the HSR enables China to translate practical health engagement into in...

"Conceived as a health-dedicated extension of the BRI, the HSR has evolved into a policy umbrella through which China links domestic public health priorities with global health governance" www.9dashline.com/article/what... | by Paulo Afonso B. Duarte and Anabela Rodrigues Santiago

9DASHLINE — The Philippines’ hard balancing statecraft won’t deliver the South China Sea Code of Conduct Written by Pheng Thean. If the Philippines seeks a realistic pathway towards a functional COC — and to preserve ASEAN’s credibility as a neutral convening platform — it must complement its instruments...

"If the Philippines seeks a realistic pathway towards a functional COC — and to preserve ASEAN’s credibility as a neutral convening platform — it must complement its instruments of statecraft with more targeted diplomatic adjustments" www.9dashline.com/article/the-... | by Pheng Thean

9DASHLINE — Nepal's new political generation and the India-China contest for influence Written by Omkar Bhole. Nepal’s 2026 elections have not fundamentally altered the structural realities of its foreign policy, but they have introduced Gen Z as a new political actor that could reshape...

"Nepal’s 2026 elections have not fundamentally altered the structural realities of its foreign policy, but they have introduced Gen Z as a new political actor that could reshape how external influence is exercised" www.9dashline.com/article/nepa... | by Omkar Bhole

9DASHLINE — The illusion of reform: Hun Manet’s Cambodia, three years on Written by Vanly Seng. Reform has failed not through a lack of effort, but through a lack of will, as dismantling the system of authoritarian constitutionalism would directly undermine the CPP’s hold ...

"Reform has failed not through a lack of effort, but through a lack of will, as dismantling the system of authoritarian constitutionalism would directly undermine the CPP’s hold on power" www.9dashline.com/article/the-... | by Vanly Seng.

9DASHLINE — From strategic upgrading to sovereign AI: East Asia under renewed pressure Written by Viktor Buzna. Just as steel, petrochemicals, and semiconductors once underpinned national resilience, computing power and AI ecosystems define economic and strategic autonomy today.

"Just as steel, petrochemicals, and semiconductors once underpinned national resilience, computing power and AI ecosystems define economic and strategic autonomy today" www.9dashline.com/article/from... | by Viktor Buzna

9DASHLINE — The road to Indonesia’s nickel industrialisation runs through China Written by Anoushka Singh. Without rewriting the terms on which capital and expertise enter the sector, Indonesia’s nickel future may continue to be shaped elsewhere, despite being mined at home.

"Without rewriting the terms on which capital and expertise enter the sector, Indonesia’s nickel future may continue to be shaped elsewhere, despite being mined at home" www.9dashline.com/article/the-... | by Anoushka Singh

Debate over “America First” strategy raises questions about whether the US is pursuing restraint or reshaping its role in the Indo-Pacific.

We invite several experts to assess how shifting defence burdens to allies is affecting deterrence and alliance credibility:

www.9dashline.com/article/rest...

9DASHLINE — Carney inaugurates 'global centrism': but how will the Indo-Pacific feature? Written by Quay Say Jye and Connor O’Brien. The thorny question remains what lines are not worth crossing, and when normative and institutional guardrails may prove strategically beneficial over the l...

'The thorny question remains what lines are not worth crossing, and when normative and institutional guardrails may prove strategically beneficial over the long term, especially for small and middle powers' www.9dashline.com/article/carn... | by Quah Say Jye and Connor O’Brien

9DASHLINE — China and the shifting nature of global health governance Written by Jeremy Youde. If the existing liberal international order is indeed undergoing a profound and transformative shift, and not just a reaction to Trump’s foreign policy, then there is an oppor...

'China will not simply fill the gap left by US withdrawal from the WHO and its slashing of development assistance for health; its greater prominence in global health could alter the system itself' www.9dashline.com/article/chin... by @jeremyyoude.bsky.social

9DASHLINE — The grey-zone of interest: How China tests Indonesia’s South China Sea strategy Written by Omar Rasya Joenoes. The challenge, therefore, is to transform ambiguity from a reactive posture into a deliberate and integrated strategy — one that manages asymmetry without allowing incre...

'The challenge, therefore, is to transform ambiguity from a reactive posture into a deliberate and integrated strategy — one that manages asymmetry without allowing incremental pressure to redefine the strategic status quo' www.9dashline.com/article/the-... | by Omar Rasya Joenoes

The Navigator — latest issue out now!

This month,

• Grey-zone pressure & drone incursions shaping Indo-Pacific deterrence
• Political recalibration across South & Southeast Asia
• Lessons for Europe

Plus,

• Comprehensive regional roundup

Read: 9dashline.substack.com/p/the-naviga...

9DASHLINE — Economic security moves India-Japan relations into a new strategic phase By Simran Walia Institutional mechanisms for economic security cooperation require clear roadmaps, regulatory predictability, and policy coordination to attract increased Japanese participation in In...

'Institutional mechanisms for economic security cooperation require clear roadmaps, regulatory predictability, and policy coordination to attract increased Japanese participation in India’s high-technology sectors' www.9dashline.com/article/econ... | by Simran Walia

9DASHLINE — Interpreting crime data in Japan's immigration debate Written by Peter Chai. If Japan is to navigate rising immigration without fuelling social division, public debate must move beyond simplified crime narratives. When officials discuss crimes by “foreig...

'If Japan is to navigate rising immigration without fuelling social division, public debate must move beyond simplified crime narratives' www.9dashline.com/article/inte... | by Peter Chai

9DASHLINE — Prabowo’s presidency: Meals, power, and China Written by Peyson Hunt and Nathaniel Schochet. The MBG programme stands as both a policy initiative and a political symbol of the Prabowo administration: ambitious in scope, reinforced by the military...

'Indonesia’s deepening civil-military fusion warrants close observation by the US and its allies, as these developments could significantly shape the country’s external orientation' www.9dashline.com/article/prab... | by Peyson Hunt and Nathaniel Schochet.

9DASHLINE — Bangladesh’s defence diversification and pivot to networked security Written by Taufiq E. Faruque and Rubiat Saimum. Bangladesh no longer intends to operate as a peripheral state within an India-centric security order in South Asia, but as a globally connected security...

"For Bangladesh’s global partners, welcoming this shift creates a new foundation for deeper cooperation, positioning the country as a resilient anchor for security in the Bay of Bengal and the broader Indo-Pacific" www.9dashline.com/article/bang... | by Taufiq E. Faruque and Rubiat Saimum.

9DASHLINE — Europe's dependency on critical minerals: How China keeps EU industry on a tight leash Written by Kristofers Krumins. In a bid to power green and digital transitions, Europe is struggling with its dependence on Chinese exports, exposed to coercion, industrial disruption, and geopolitica...

"In a bid to power green and digital transitions, Europe is struggling with its dependence on Chinese exports that expose it to coercion, industrial disruption, and geopolitical pressure" www.9dashline.com/article/euro... | by Kristofers Krumins

𝙏𝙝𝙚 𝙉𝙖𝙫𝙞𝙜𝙖𝙩𝙤𝙧

January issue — out now!

This month:

• Middle powers hedging through overlapping, issue-based partnerships
• Myanmar’s sham election and the limits of values-based realism

Plus,

Stay ahead with our regional roundup

Read: 9dashline.substack.com/p/the-naviga...

9DASHLINE — The tech test: New Zealand’s independence in a connected world Written by Phuong Nguyen. The era of digital independence is closing fast. From 5G to AI, the Indo-Pacific is fragmenting into competing ecosystems centred on Washington and Beijing.

"The era of digital independence is closing fast. From 5G to AI, the Indo-Pacific is fragmenting into competing ecosystems centred on Washington and Beijing" www.9dashline.com/article/the-... | by Phuong Nguyen

9DASHLINE — Countering cognitive warfare: Lessons for the EU from Taiwan Written by Jia Yin Chen and Luc van de Goor. Crucially, countering cognitive warfare is not just about timely dissemination of factual counter-narratives. It must also build each citizen’s defences ag...

'Countering cognitive warfare: Lessons for the EU from Taiwan'—New external article from SIPRI's Jia Yin Chen and Luc van de Goor on @9dashline.com: www.9dashline.com/article/coun...

9DASHLINE — South Korea’s SSN debate: toward an East-Asian AUKUS Written by Seungwan Kim and Jun Sun Yoo. An East Asian AUKUS framework could align with these expectations by signalling Seoul’s commitment to Indo-Pacific security while adding industrial and operat...

"An East Asian AUKUS framework could align with these expectations by signalling Seoul’s commitment to Indo-Pacific security while adding industrial and operational depth to alliance deterrence" www.9dashline.com/article/sout... | by SeungHwan Kim and Jun Sun Yoo.

9DASHLINE — In Brief: Naledi Tilmann and Dr. Yatana Yamahata We are delighted to introduce our new editorial leadership. In this In Brief discussion, Editor-in-Chief Dr Yatana Yamahata and Managing Editor Naledi Tilmann share their vision for the platform’s fut...

Welcoming Dr Yatana Yamahata and Naledi Tilmann to the helm at 9DASHLINE.

Alongside our usual output we will spotlight small states, youth-led digital resistance and non-state actors reshaping the region.

Join as we connect Europe and the Indo-Pacific.

More here: www.9dashline.com/article/in-b...

💯 Southeast Asian countries are pursuing similar strategies to de-risk from the United States, a trend I previously warned about in a piece for @9dashline.com: "the US appears to be yesterday’s story, while Asia has moved on with the new rules of the road." www.9dashline.com/article/desp...

New episode 🎙️

In collaboration with the European Parliament in ASEAN

This month David MacSweeney joins @zsuzsettte and @richheydarian

– Key issues shaping EU–ASEAN relations in 2026
– Indo-Pacific developments
– Five areas to watch

Apple: buff.ly/lXzfafM

Spotify: buff.ly/pg3ZHni

9DASHLINE — COP30: The struggle for ambitious action in a shifting climate governance order Written by Luana Correia. Influence in climate diplomacy is becoming increasingly dispersed, as traditional agenda-setters fail to consolidate their authority, creating space for competing interests —...

"Influence in climate diplomacy is becoming increasingly dispersed, as traditional agenda-setters fail to consolidate their authority, creating space for competing interests — and claims to leadership — to shape outcomes" www.9dashline.com/article/cop3... | by Luana Correia