One way I’m quite confident that LLMs are not more intelligent than me, is that I experience an onslaught of people who are obviously using ChatGPT or Claude to assist them in their online debates with me, and I still wipe the floor with them every time.
As Tim Cook announces his departure from Apple, I hearken back to my Crisis papers series of essays on my thoughts of what became of the house that Jobs built under Cook’s captaincy. www.notesfromthecircus.com/p/the-crisis...
I was called a "conspiracy theorist" by former friends for thinking that people like Thiel and Karp were plotting a fascist takeover of America over a year ago. It's been something of journey to see the rest of the world come to the conclusion I privately arrived at, before this all started.
Trump has golfed on about 25% of the days he's been president. And very stupid people believe he's a "hard working" president.
The robe is borrowed. And the man inside it does not know what a dialectic is.
Andrew Wilson uses "dialectic" to mean "two columns — left bad, right good." Plato, Hegel, and Marx would not recognize this. It is a taxonomy masquerading as a philosophical method.
The line is not between criticism and no-criticism. The line is between specific claims about specific actors and ritual claims about the Jewish national project as such.
A serious conversation requires holding all of these truths simultaneously. Our discourse cannot. That is the failure.
Triggernometry treated a program of theocratic patriarchy — household voting, questioning women's suffrage, Christians should rule — as an "honest conversation."
The clown car is real. It is not a metaphor.
notesfromthecircus.com/p/the-real-honest-conversation
The robe is borrowed. And the man inside it does not know what a dialectic is.
Andrew Wilson uses "dialectic" to mean "two columns — left bad, right good." Plato, Hegel, and Marx would not recognize this. It is a taxonomy masquerading as a philosophical method.
Platner is not a right-winger. He is not Fetterman.
The refutation of the alternative is not the affirmation of the choice. These are different operations.
Liberal intellectuals have gotten very good at explaining why the reactionaries are wrong. They have almost entirely stopped explaining why liberalism is right.
GOP Jesus.
I read what you're saying, and I would not revise a single word in my piece.
Patrick Boyle's video today on YouTube is a great chaser for my piece: www.youtube.com/watch?v=e0ns...
(Complaints about Sharia Law, and its Christian or other theocratic equivalents from non-right people remain allowed)
I have officially tuned out any complaints about any Muslim wanting Sharia Law now from the right, given the fact they systematically see-no-evil with Russel Vought and other assorted Christian theocrats who are actively working to create a Christian version in America.
If the market rallies after every fake declaration from Trump are not proof that the market is irrational, and challenge your faith in efficient market hypothesis, then I am prepared to characterize you as a very foolish, painfully deluded person.
It's fun to think about how I became unemployable in Silicon Valley because I insisted on saying bad things about Donald Trump on the internet. And now I get to narrate their comeuppance.
💯
Interesting read on the future of AI:
"The revolution is coming and the revolution will destroy the business models of the companies currently being valued on the assumption that they will capture it."
Great read, dumped some thoughts in this thread: 🧵 (0/18)
Great clarity here. Love this! #EconSky
CC: @carlquintanilla.bsky.social @cnbc.com @bloomberg.com
A bubble doesn't require fake tech. It requires capital to be pointed at the wrong place.
The revolution is real. The business models being built to capture it aren't. When the bubble pops, the GPUs remain — the rent-extracting platforms don't.
Cloud-inference revenue is a transitional artifact.
Apple Silicon + quantization + distillation = a local Siri that matches today's ChatGPT/Claude. No subscription. No rate limits. No surveillance. Mass-consumer cloud AI migrates to a substrate hyperscalers can't charge for.
Enterprise SaaS is where the record industry was circa 1999. LLMs are MP3s for software.
A consultancy can now build a company a custom CRM that fits its actual workflow for less than 3 years of Salesforce licensing fees.
What LLMs actually do, in the hands of a competent engineer: collapse the cost of translating business requirements into working software by an order of magnitude.
Tasks that took a 6-month engagement now take a week. Sometimes an afternoon.
AI is the future.
The current AI buildout is a bubble.
Not because the tech is fake — but because the capital is pointed at the wrong layer of the stack: SaaS, cloud inference, hyperscaler capex.
New essay:
www.notesfromthecircus.com/p/the-capita...
Look, I'm not saying LLMs are not incredible inventions that are going to completely reshape the world. I'm saying they will reshape the world, but they're going to commoditize (they already are) and go open source, and the trillions being spent is capital misallocation writ large.