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Posts by Tyson Swetnam

A graph showing the average Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over the continental United States each March since 1895 -- this year, 2026, is a clear outlier that's more severe than any other year on record

A graph showing the average Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) over the continental United States each March since 1895 -- this year, 2026, is a clear outlier that's more severe than any other year on record

Worst US drought /since the 1950s/ - actually since 1895:

1 day ago 15 8 1 1
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Unusually active April weather pattern to continue this week, and possibly beyond, as subtropical northeastern Pacific waters reach record warmth - Weather West April 19, 2026 - Daniel Swain - Milder temperatures in April than March, with much more precipitation; snowpack, however, remains extremely low What a strange Water Year it has been in 2025-2026! We started the WY with record rainfall during Oct-Dec across much of the central and south coast, including the wettest Oct-Dec period ever observed in Santa Barbara, Ventura, Kern, and #

New Weather West post out this evening: "Unusually active April weather pattern to continue this week, and possibly beyond, as subtropical northeastern Pacific waters reach record warmth."

3 days ago 124 38 3 2
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The scope of how dry it’s been in the Southeast is remarkable! Every area in the darker shade of brown is the driest stretch on record. It’s the vast majority of the SE and N #florida. 100% of the SE is in drought… 83% severe or worse… 1/

3 days ago 130 60 15 6
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‘It’s just madness’: Trump administration to close three-quarters of Forest Service research stations Between funding cuts, facility closures, and the inevitable resignations that will follow, there’s virtually no way for the Forest Service to continue to do research at its current level or quality, w...

My big takeaway from reporting this story is that it's not JUST about the Forest Service.

The closure of these stations threatens to upend a delicate system of mutually beneficial collaboration and resource sharing, and the impacts will ripple out far beyond the Forest Service itself.

1 week ago 221 156 3 10
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Join Our Everglades Wading Bird Research as a Postdoc Join our Everglades Wading Bird project as a postdoc researcher! Explore wading bird breeding, nest success, and drone monitoring opportunities.

Weecology is hiring a postdoc to work with my long-term, large-scale Everglades wading bird project. We have data on nest effort at multiple spatial scales over 30+ years for multiple species. We also do fun stuff w/ drones. Sound interesting? See our ad! jabberwocky.weecology.org/2026/04/15/p...

1 week ago 21 17 0 1
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Ecosystem modeling postdoc The Earth Systems Ecology Lab ( www.hurteaulab.org ) at the University of New Mexico is recruiting a postdoctoral researcher with a strong background in ecosystem modeling or spatial data analysis to....

I am hiring a new postdoc to work on an ecosystem modeling project with colleagues in hydrology, computer science, and the social sciences, including @mojisadegh.bsky.social

If you want to do impactful work to understand the forest-water relationship, apply:
www.hurteaulab.org/blog/ecosyst...

1 week ago 27 29 0 2
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DuckLake v1.0 We are happy to release DuckLake v1.0, a production-ready lakehouse format specification. Its reference implementation, the ducklake DuckDB extension, is available as of today in DuckDB v1.5.2.

We are happy to release DuckLake v1.0, a production-ready lakehouse format specification. Its reference implementation, the ducklake DuckDB extension, is available as of today in DuckDB v1.5.2.

For more details, read the announcement blog post:
ducklake.select/2026/04/13/d...

1 week ago 54 11 1 0
Pipeline for integrating lidar data with structured demographic models for ecological inference. (a) Forest populations are surveyed at appropriate time intervals with a lidar scanner to produce high-resolution 3D point clouds. Point clouds are processed into canopy height models (CHMs) and digital terrain models (DTMs). (b) Individual tree segmentation is performed using a CHM-based algorithm (e.g. Dalponte & Coomes, 2016). (c) Relevant environmental variables are derived. For example, TWI is an indicator of soil moisture accumulation (Kopecký et al., 2021) and is calculated from the DTM. Local competition is inferred from the canopy density surrounding each tree, using the CHM. (d) Trees are matched across time points using a crown-matching algorithm (Battison et al., 2024; Olsoy et al., 2024), before measuring changes in size and classifying mortalities. (e) Continuous traits (e.g. height and crown area) are evaluated for their ability to predict survival and growth across the life cycle. (f) Selected traits and environmental parameters are used to model the vital rates using regressions. (g) The integral projection model (IPM) is constructed based on the selected vital rate models and key life history traits (e.g. mean life expectancy, longevity, generation time) are calculated. (h) Finally, IPM outputs are analysed to test ecological hypotheses.

Pipeline for integrating lidar data with structured demographic models for ecological inference. (a) Forest populations are surveyed at appropriate time intervals with a lidar scanner to produce high-resolution 3D point clouds. Point clouds are processed into canopy height models (CHMs) and digital terrain models (DTMs). (b) Individual tree segmentation is performed using a CHM-based algorithm (e.g. Dalponte & Coomes, 2016). (c) Relevant environmental variables are derived. For example, TWI is an indicator of soil moisture accumulation (Kopecký et al., 2021) and is calculated from the DTM. Local competition is inferred from the canopy density surrounding each tree, using the CHM. (d) Trees are matched across time points using a crown-matching algorithm (Battison et al., 2024; Olsoy et al., 2024), before measuring changes in size and classifying mortalities. (e) Continuous traits (e.g. height and crown area) are evaluated for their ability to predict survival and growth across the life cycle. (f) Selected traits and environmental parameters are used to model the vital rates using regressions. (g) The integral projection model (IPM) is constructed based on the selected vital rate models and key life history traits (e.g. mean life expectancy, longevity, generation time) are calculated. (h) Finally, IPM outputs are analysed to test ecological hypotheses.

The first paper from my PhD is now out in the world 🌲📖 Modelling forest dynamics using IPMs and repeat lidar doi.org/10.1002/rse2...

1 week ago 46 15 1 2
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Holy smokes! An incredible start to the 'Wildfire Season' in the US this year - owing to an abnormally hot and snowless winter in some parts of the country.

1 week ago 160 111 9 25
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2025-2026 Synthesis Groups, Part B: LTER Community Call - LTER April 8, 2026 @ 9:00 am-10:00 am - We'll hear from 2 LTER synthesis groups: 1) Life after death: how legacies of dead foundation species influence ecological processes across marine and terrestrial ec...

Our April LTER Community Call will feature two active working groups: *Life After Death* looking at the legacy of dead foundation species and *consumer taxonomic and functional diversity and nutrient cycling*

Join us 04/08 at 9 am PT.

lternet.edu/events/2025-...

2 weeks ago 2 2 0 0
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A powerhouse El Niño event appears to be brewing for 2026-27 » Yale Climate Connections Triplet tropical cyclones astride the equator could help it develop.

Signs of a high-end El Niño in the making are piling up fast. The picture includes an unusual set of tropical cyclones over the western Pacific. More here from me and @drjeffmasters.bsky.social: @climateconnections.bsky.social

yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/04/a-po...

2 weeks ago 94 40 2 7
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Likely the worst El Niño in 140 years. Harvests will be bad even without a fertilizer crisis. GOP will head to elections with scorching food inflation. And they will blame Belgium for not opening Hormuz. And 35% of Americans will be very angry at Belgium.

2 weeks ago 2209 719 119 48
The machines are fine. I'm worried about us. On AI agents, grunt work, and the part of science that isn't replaceable.

Hey, I wrote a thing about AI in astrophysics
ergosphere.blog/posts/the-ma...

3 weeks ago 1728 517 109 265

As @triptychphrases.bsky.social showed, these summer temperatures on the California margin can have important implications for summer precipitation (extremes) in the south/west US iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

3 weeks ago 29 13 0 1
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The National Weather Service is warning of a significant fire weather pattern that will begin developing this weekend and extend through next week.

The public is strongly advised to avoid all fire-related activities, as conditions will continue to be conducive to rapid fire growth:

3 weeks ago 12 8 0 1
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Assistant Professor: Forest Genetics and Genomics The Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society invites applications for a full-time (1.00 FTE), 9-month, tenure-track, Assistant Professor: Forest Genetics and Genomics position.We seek a scholar-edu...

Just spotted! - the rare and elusive tenure track position.

This one in forest conservation genetics in my department - Forest Ecosystems and Society at Oregon State.

Help spread the word!

jobs.oregonstate.edu/postings/178...

3 weeks ago 15 18 1 0

Congratulations Jason!

3 weeks ago 1 0 1 0

To complement this @theguardian.com article, please see our new (very timely) paper on snow-wildfire dynamics 🔥

4 weeks ago 18 11 0 0
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As the first reanalysis data become available, I think I can say with a fairly high degree of confidence that the March 2026 heatwave will go down as the most anomalously extreme heat event ever observed at any time of year in the southwestern U.S.

4 weeks ago 508 212 12 38
GitHub - NVIDIA/OpenShell: OpenShell is the safe, private runtime for autonomous AI agents. OpenShell is the safe, private runtime for autonomous AI agents. - NVIDIA/OpenShell

hmm, openshell looks pretty interesting: github.com/NVIDIA/OpenS...

basically just runs your agent in an OCI container (like we already do) but with networking etc locked down by default and controlled from an external instance.

Nice to see open innovation around hard controls instead of prompts

1 month ago 3 1 1 0
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Map, from polarwx.com, of ECMWF model's forecast for 500mb heights later this week and their rank relative to the historical record for March over North America. A giant pink blob is visible over western North America, indicating an absurdly large area of record-breaking 500mb GPH.

Map, from polarwx.com, of ECMWF model's forecast for 500mb heights later this week and their rank relative to the historical record for March over North America. A giant pink blob is visible over western North America, indicating an absurdly large area of record-breaking 500mb GPH.

The seasonal anomalousness, as well sheer spatial extent, of upcoming record-shattering Western U.S. heatwave is genuinely startling. This will be associated with, by far, the strongest ridge ever observed during (at least) any Nov-Mar month. #CAwx #AZwx #NMwx #NVwx #UTwx #COwx

1 month ago 272 122 11 9
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The Morrill Fire in Nebraska has killed 1 and consumed 549,000 acres with 0% containment. This is more than 10% of the entire area burned by U.S. wildfires in 2025, and makes it one of the 20 largest fires in U.S. history. Sunday forecast is grim: High Wind Warning, 25-35 mph winds, gusting to 50.

1 month ago 1192 638 53 91
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Iran is facing a very severe drought. The nationwide 12-month running standardized precipitation index (SPI) is the lowest since at least 1950.

1 month ago 68 28 3 2
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December 2025 through February 2026 was the 2nd warmest winter on record for the Contiguous U.S. according to Prism climate data. The widespread record to near record warmth in the west easily outweighed the cool temps in the east. 🔥🔥🔥

1 month ago 608 266 21 39

The high temperature in Fairbanks today was -21F. It's been 70 years since Fairbanks had a high temp in the -20Fs this late into the season. @alaskawx.bsky.social

1 month ago 56 9 3 1
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Tremendous heat in South Texas today! 104° F - in February - makes this the Hottest temperature ever recorded in winter in the US!

1 month ago 88 50 3 14

thank you Team Zensical! so far so good on all of the sites i've switched over 🙂

1 month ago 1 0 0 0
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🆓 🎉 It's Free Open Source Software Month! Learn open source skills for FREE!

From Linux fundamentals to Kubernetes, secure software, and emerging tech, check out Linux Foundation Education’s free learning library today: training.linuxfoundation.org/resources/

#OSS #CloudNative #Linux #Kubernetes

2 months ago 30 7 0 0

I'm super excited to share that this article was published today in Science! www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

All made possible by the fantastic group of donors, volunteers and scientists at The American Chestnut Foundation (tacf.org), HudsonAlpha Institute for Biotechnology, and our collaborators.

2 months ago 100 44 3 5
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Faculty Positions

We are hiring an Assistant or Associate Professor in Indigenous Environmental Governance and Management. Very excited for this position.

Please circulate widely among your networks:
www.sfu.ca/rem/about/em...

#academia #HigherEd #AcademicSky

2 months ago 20 24 0 0