Smh

happy birthday!

we need to talk about that Ring Super Bowl ad

screenshot of a histogram showing spikes around the 10s

the rating scale was a slider with tick marks on the 10s

The nazis redistributed the stolen property of deported Jews to the German population. It was called Aryanization.

This is no different.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aryaniz...

Congrats homie!

Now here’s why the democrats must talk about pocketbook issues…

Media: do not lead with the false government framing of what happened

It’s crucial that networks with Sunday morning shows not let Republicans lie about what happened today. Interrupt them, cut their mics, cut away. It’s reckless and inaccurate to let them spin a murder. The video is clear. I don’t expect this to happen, but the journalistic imperative is clear.

I don’t think we should be using words like “innocent” or “US citizen” or “bystander” or things like that because — what if someone was an undocumented immigrant with a criminal record? Would they deserve this? No one deserves to be executed on the street in cold blood.

Criminal use of text highlights by CNN on the Minneapolis shooting (second paragraph)

Embarrassing, reeks of regime sycophancy

Yet we have a media ecosystem that’ll bend-over backwards attempting to say anything other than this to appear as “objective”

“we can’t campaign on ice executing citizens because then they’ll raise the salience of an issue voters are 60-40 to 70-30 against“

We have just witnessed state security services execute a protestor in cold blood.

If they can get away with it, we have entered a new, exceptionally dangerous stage in America’s authoritarian slide.

Aaron Parnas writes: “BREAKING: Another ICE involved shooting just happened minutes ago in Minneapolis per someone I spoke to on the ground. Details are limited right now.”

Message to fellow journalists (and anyone claiming to be one): do not “police-involved shooting” executions in broad daylight.

Obfuscating language like that is completely journalistically unnecessary and, even worse, sanitizes reality.

Words have meaning. Use the right ones.

Wise words from WEB DuBois to gird us today: "It would be shame and cowardice to surrender this glorious land and its opportunities for civilization and humanity to the thugs and lynchers, the mobs and profiteers, the monopolists & gamblers who today choke its soul and steal its resources."

BREAKING: The Tribune confirmed on Instagram that the man shot has died, according to two sources with knowledge of the incident.

ICE attempted to order local police from the scene, but Chief Brian O'Hara refused, sources also told the Tribune. O'Hara instructed his officers to preserve the scene.

Sounds like another extremely bad situation in Minneapolis this morning.

screen shot of lecture playlist links and table of lecture topics

Possums in your yard? News got you down? Fear not, I have made playlists for the A and B sections of my ongoing Statistical Rethinking course. Click the section of your choice, sit back, and forget the possums and decay of the international order while your brain updates. github.com/rmcelreath/s...

Minnesota: "School officials say the [5-year-old] child was used as bait. They say [ICE] agents made little Liam knock on the door to ask to be let in in order to see if anyone else was home."

A very detailed map of Trump's job approval Explore our new interactive map of Trump's job approval, powered by 12,000 survey interviews conducted in 2025 and 2026

Today I am publishing what I believe to be the most detailed available map of Trump's job approval rating. Powered by over 12,000 interviews for our Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll. I hope this generates many stories, and hours wasted exploring data!

www.gelliottmorris.com/p/a-very-det...

1000 runs is my Stan warmup

Statistical Rethinking 2026 - Lecture A02 - Garden of Forking Data YouTube video by Richard McElreath

I biked to work in 3cm of slush this morning to deliver another lecture. Stat Rethinking A02: more Bayesian updating, points and intervals, posterior predictive distributions. Next week it's linear regression as Gauss intended. Full course schedule here: github.com/rmcelreath/s...

Federal Prosecutors Are Said to Have Opened Inquiry Into Fed Chair Powell

This piece is very well reported and written. It’s clear-eyed, precise and gives important context. And yet it’s a great illustration that there’s this fundamental, unbridgeable formal constraint that makes it essentially impossible to plainly call this what it is.

www.nytimes.com/2026/01/11/u...

Marimo is pretty dang cool btw. Great for EDA.

A slew of improvements to NUTS
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/12/11/a...

How cable news fueled the culture war and broke U.S. politics News organizations, and not just Fox News, focus on inflammatory stories, polarizing voters and tilting political agendas toward right-leaning issues including crime, safety, and immigration

Tomorrow's article for Strength In Numbers paying subscribers: How cable news fueled the culture war and broke U.S. politics www.gelliottmorris.com/p/how-cable-...

Good stuff in here